Pascal Brangetto

Bio: Pascal Brangetto is an academic researcher from NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence. The author has contributed to research in topics: Information warfare & Adversary. The author has an hindex of 1, co-authored 1 publications receiving 13 citations.

Influence Cyber Operations: The use of cyberattacks in support of Influence Operations

Abstract: Information Warfare and Influence Operations are, in principle, intended to get your own message across or to prevent your adversary from doing so. However, it is not just about developing a coherent and convincing storyline as it also involves confusing, distracting, dividing, and demoralising the adversary. From that perspective, cyberspace seems to be ideal for conducting such operations that will have disruptive, rather than destructive outcomes.

Doxing democracy: influencing elections via cyber voter interference

Abstract: There is a recent surge in the use of state-sponsored cyber operations by states against foreign political institutions, including efforts to sway electoral outcomes by influencing voters. Yet cyber statecraft research has focused more on operations designed to yield a direct military advantage or reward, rather than as a subtle tool of influence. We seek to address this gap in the literature, first by conceptualising a typology of state-sponsored operations constituting ‘cyber voter interference’ (CVI), second by theorising a causal mechanism through which CVI can influence the cognition and behaviour of voters contingent on specific local conditions within a target state, and third by testing the plausibility of our theoretical model via two case studies of recent elections in the United States and France, both of which saw credible accusations of cyber interference by hostile foreign actors. We find that the evidence supports the plausibility of the theorised model, and our argument that the su...

Under false flag: using technical artifacts for cyber attack attribution

Abstract: The attribution of cyber attacks is often neglected. The consensus still is that little can be done to prosecute the perpetrators – and unfortunately, this might be right in many cases. What is however only of limited interest for the private industry is in the center of interest for nation states. Investigating if an attack was carried out in the name of a nation state is a crucial task for secret services. Many methods, tools and processes exist for network- and computer forensics that allow the collection of traces and evidences. They are the basis to associate adversarial actions to threat actors. However, a serious problem which has not got the appropriate attention from research yet, are false flag campaigns, cyber attacks which apply covert tactics to deceive or misguide attribution attempts – either to hide traces or to blame others. In this paper we provide an overview of prominent attack techniques along the cyber kill chain. We investigate traces left by attack techniques and which questions in course of the attribution process are answered by investigating these traces. Eventually, we assess how easily traces can be spoofed and rate their relevancy with respect to identifying false flag campaigns.

Study on the Missing Data Mechanisms and Imputation Methods

Abstract: The absence of some data values in any observed dataset has been a real hindrance to achieving valid results in statistical research. This paper aimed at the missing data widespread problem faced by analysts and statisticians in academia and professional environments. Some data-driven methods were studied to obtain accurate data. Projects that highly rely on data face this missing data problem. And since machine learning models are only as good as the data used to train them, the missing data problem has a real impact on the solutions developed for real-world problems. Therefore, in this dissertation, there is an attempt to solve this problem using different mechanisms. This is done by testing the effectiveness of both traditional and modern data imputation techniques by determining the loss of statistical power when these different approaches are used to tackle the missing data problem. At the end of this research dissertation, it should be easy to establish which methods are the best when handling the research problem. It is recommended that using Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) for MAR missingness is the best approach to dealing with missing data.

Project Management of Strategic Communication in Digital Era

Abstract: Strategic communication is one of the expressions of state power and represents an instrument in the political and security achievement of national interests. Contemporary conflicts have a form of hybrid acts in the area of usage of information based on the media and Internet. The main goal of strategic communication is to influence the public opinion changing cultural values and adjustment of the political system through the “reprogramming” of the political culture. Listed offensive activities could strongly effect on national defense and security capabilities, influencing on mind of population. Paper describes conceptual correlation among the strategic concept of communication operationalised in project management with psychological behaviour influence in cyberspace. Paper offers modeling of the project approach to designing of strategic communication in the scope of the contemporary digital era. The paper analyses internet contents on social networks through aspects of possible influence on behaviour and attitudes of the target public, as an object of strategic communication project management.