Statistics for Spatial Data.

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Modern Applied Statistics With S

Fisheries have rarely been 'sustainable'. Rather, fishing has induced serial depletions, long masked by improved technology, geographic expansion and exploitation of previously spurned species lower in the food web. With global catches declining since the late 1980s, continuation of present trends will lead to supply shortfall, for which aquaculture cannot be expected to compensate, and may well exacerbate. Reducing fishing capacity to appropriate levels will require strong reductions of subsidies. Zoning the oceans into unfished marine reserves and areas with limited levels of fishing effort would allow sustainable fisheries, based on resources embedded in functional, diverse ecosystems.

/pdf/towards-sustainability-in-world-fisheries-26u29h5wj5.pdf

Towards sustainability in world fisheries

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has been described by some as a long-lived El Nino-like pattern of Pacific climate variability, and by others as a blend of two sometimes independent modes having distinct spatial and temporal characteristics of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability. A growing body of evidence highlights a strong tendency for PDO impacts in the Southern Hemisphere, with important surface climate anomalies over the mid-latitude South Pacific Ocean, Australia and South America. Several independent studies find evidence for just two full PDO cycles in the past century: “cool” PDO regimes prevailed from 1890–1924 and again from 1947–1976, while “warm” PDO regimes dominated from 1925–1946 and from 1977 through (at least) the mid-1990's. Interdecadal changes in Pacific climate have widespread impacts on natural systems, including water resources in the Americas and many marine fisheries in the North Pacific. Tree-ring and Pacific coral based climate reconstructions suggest that PDO variations—at a range of varying time scales—can be traced back to at least 1600, although there are important differences between different proxy reconstructions. While 20th Century PDO fluctuations were most energetic in two general periodicities—one from 15-to-25 years, and the other from 50-to-70 years—the mechanisms causing PDO variability remain unclear. To date, there is little in the way of observational evidence to support a mid-latitude coupled air-sea interaction for PDO, though there are several well-understood mechanisms that promote multi-year persistence in North Pacific upper ocean temperature anomalies.

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1023%2FA%3A1015820616384.pdf

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Quantitative fisheries stock assessment : , Quantitative fisheries stock assessment : , مرکز فناوری اطلاعات و اطلاع رسانی کشاورزی

Quantitative fisheries stock assessment

Since the climate regime shift of 1976-1977 in the North Pacific, the individual growth of Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis) has decreased dramatically in Alaska but not in British Columbia...

Decadal changes in growth and recruitment of Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis)

To study the patterns and determinants of philopatry and breeding dispersal in the Tree Swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) we analyzed the records of 356 males and 1459 females captured in more than one breeding year around Ithaca, New York. Of these captures, only 4% of male and 14% of female breeders dispersed to a new site for breeding. With our combination of intensive study areas in Tompkins County, New York, and the efforts of volunteer banders throughout New York and surrounding states, we could have detected dispersal in excess of 400 km from the initial breeding site. Randomization tests revealed, however, that breeders dispersed much shorter distances than they could have been detected. Detailed analyses of recaptures in Tompkins County showed that over a 22-km range of distances, the chances of dispersal to a new breeding site declined with the distance from the original breeding site. Females that failed to fledge any offspring were much more likely to disperse than females that reproduced...

/pdf/breeding-dispersal-and-philopatry-in-the-tree-swallow-3p8c006rv7.pdf

Breeding dispersal and philopatry in the tree swallow

Population control through harvest has the potential to reduce the abundance of nuisance and invasive species. However, demographic structure and density-dependent processes can confound removal efforts and lead to undesirable consequences, such as overcompensation (an increase in abundance in response to harvest) and instability (population cycling or chaos). Recent empirical studies have demonstrated the potential for increased mortality (such as that caused by harvest) to lead to overcompensation and instability in plant, insect, and fish populations. We developed a general population model with juvenile and adult stages to help determine the conditions under which control harvest efforts can produce unintended outcomes. Analytical and simulation analyses of the model demonstrated that the potential for overcompensation as a result of harvest was significant for species with high fecundity, even when annual stage-specific survivorship values were fairly low. Population instability as a result of harvest occurred less frequently and was only possible with harvest strategies that targeted adults when both fecundity and adult survivorship were high. We considered these results in conjunction with current literature on nuisance and invasive species to propose general guidelines for assessing the risks associated with control harvest based on life history characteristics of target populations. Our results suggest that species with high per capita fecundity (over discrete breeding periods), short juvenile stages, and fairly constant survivorship rates are most likely to respond undesirably to harvest. It is difficult to determine the extent to which overcompensation and instability could occur during real-world removal efforts, and more empirical removal studies should be undertaken to evaluate population-level responses to control harvests. Nevertheless, our results identify key issues that have been seldom acknowledged and are potentially generic across taxa.

/pdf/when-can-efforts-to-control-nuisance-and-invasive-species-1uwk4xfc05.pdf

When can efforts to control nuisance and invasive species backfire

The effect of dams on river transport of microplastic pollution.

The Beaverkill Watershed in the Catskill Mountains of New York, U.S.A., shows evidence of high summer stream temperatures throughout critical trout habitat. Because habitat quality, as characterize...

Patrick J. Sullivan

Papers

Decadal changes in growth and recruitment of Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis)

Breeding dispersal and philopatry in the tree swallow

When can efforts to control nuisance and invasive species backfire

The effect of dams on river transport of microplastic pollution.

Predicting stream temperatures: geostatistical model comparison using alternative distance metrics