Paul Charbonneau

Bio: Paul Charbonneau is an academic researcher from Université de Montréal. The author has contributed to research in topics: Dynamo & Solar dynamo. The author has an hindex of 33, co-authored 110 publications receiving 4197 citations.

Dynamo Models of the Solar Cycle

Abstract: This chapter details a series of dynamo models applicable to the sun and solar-type stars. After introducing the theoretical framework known as mean-field electrodynamics, a series of increasingly complex dynamo models are constructed, with the primary aim of reproducing the various basic observed characteristics of the solar magnetic activity cycle. Global and local magnetohydrodynamcial simulations of solar convection, and dynamo action therein, are also considered, and the resulting magnetic cycles compared and contrasted to those obtained in the simpler dynamo models. The focus throughout the chapter is on the sun, simply because the amount of available observational material on the solar magnetic field and its cycle dwarfs anything else in the astrophysical realm, in terms of spatial and temporal resolution, sensitivity, and time span.

Magnetic Cycles in Global Large-eddy Simulations of Solar Convection

Abstract: We report on a global magnetohydrodynamical simulation of the solar convection zone, which succeeds in generating a large-scale axisymmetric magnetic component, antisymmetric about the equatorial plane and undergoing regular polarity reversals on decadal timescales. We focus on a specific simulation run covering 255 years, during which 8 polarity reversals are observed, with a mean period of 30 years. Time-latitude slices of the zonally averaged toroidal magnetic component at the base of the convecting envelope show a well-organized toroidal flux system building up in each solar hemisphere, peaking at mid-latitudes and migrating toward the equator in the course of each cycle, in remarkable agreement with inferences based on the sunspot butterfly diagram. The simulation also produces a large-scale dipole moment, varying in phase with the internal toroidal component, suggesting that the simulation may be operating as what is known in mean-field theory as an αΩ dynamo.

Solar Dynamo Theory

Abstract: The Sun's magnetic field is the engine and energy source driving all phenomena collectively defining solar activity, which in turn structures the whole heliosphere and significantly impacts Earth's atmosphere down at least to the stratosphere. The solar magnetic field is believed to originate through the action of a hydromagnetic dynamo process operating in the Sun's interior, where the strongly turbulent environment of the convection zone leads to flow-field interactions taking place on an extremely wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Following a necessarily brief observational overview of the solar magnetic field and its cycle, this review on solar dynamo theory is structured around three areas in which significant advances have been made in recent years: (a) global magnetohydrodynamical simulations of convection and magnetic cycles, (b) the turbulent electromotive force and the dynamo saturation problem, and (c) flux transport dynamos, and their application to model cycle fluctuations and grand ...

Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2)

Abstract: This paper describes the recommended solar forcing dataset for CMIP6 and highlights changes with respect to CMIP5. The solar forcing is provided for radiative properties, namely total solar irradiance (TSI), solar spectral irradiance (SSI), and the F10.7 index as well as particle forcing, including geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp, and ionization rates to account for effects of solar protons, electrons, and galactic cosmic rays. This is the first time that a recommendation for solar-driven particle forcing has been provided for a CMIP exercise. The solar forcing datasets are provided at daily and monthly resolution separately for the CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical (1850–2014), and future (2015–2300) simulations. For the preindustrial control simulation, both constant and time-varying solar forcing components are provided, with the latter including variability on 11-year and shorter timescales but no long-term changes. For the future, we provide a realistic scenario of what solar behavior could be, as well as an additional extreme Maunder-minimum-like sensitivity scenario. This paper describes the forcing datasets and also provides detailed recommendations as to their implementation in current climate models. For the historical simulations, the TSI and SSI time series are defined as the average of two solar irradiance models that are adapted to CMIP6 needs: an empirical one (NRLTSI2–NRLSSI2) and a semi-empirical one (SATIRE). A new and lower TSI value is recommended: the contemporary solar-cycle average is now 1361.0 W m−2. The slight negative trend in TSI over the three most recent solar cycles in the CMIP6 dataset leads to only a small global radiative forcing of −0.04 W m−2. In the 200–400 nm wavelength range, which is important for ozone photochemistry, the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset shows a larger solar-cycle variability contribution to TSI than in CMIP5 (50 % compared to 35 %). We compare the climatic effects of the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset to its CMIP5 predecessor by using time-slice experiments of two chemistry–climate models and a reference radiative transfer model. The differences in the long-term mean SSI in the CMIP6 dataset, compared to CMIP5, impact on climatological stratospheric conditions (lower shortwave heating rates of −0.35 K day−1 at the stratopause), cooler stratospheric temperatures (−1.5 K in the upper stratosphere), lower ozone abundances in the lower stratosphere (−3 %), and higher ozone abundances (+1.5 % in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere). Between the maximum and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, there is an increase in shortwave heating rates (+0.2 K day−1 at the stratopause), temperatures ( ∼ 1 K at the stratopause), and ozone (+2.5 % in the upper stratosphere) in the tropical upper stratosphere using the CMIP6 forcing dataset. This solar-cycle response is slightly larger, but not statistically significantly different from that for the CMIP5 forcing dataset. CMIP6 models with a well-resolved shortwave radiation scheme are encouraged to prescribe SSI changes and include solar-induced stratospheric ozone variations, in order to better represent solar climate variability compared to models that only prescribe TSI and/or exclude the solar-ozone response. We show that monthly-mean solar-induced ozone variations are implicitly included in the SPARC/CCMI CMIP6 Ozone Database for historical simulations, which is derived from transient chemistry–climate model simulations and has been developed for climate models that do not calculate ozone interactively. CMIP6 models without chemistry that perform a preindustrial control simulation with time-varying solar forcing will need to use a modified version of the SPARC/CCMI Ozone Database that includes solar variability. CMIP6 models with interactive chemistry are also encouraged to use the particle forcing datasets, which will allow the potential long-term effects of particles to be addressed for the first time. The consideration of particle forcing has been shown to significantly improve the representation of reactive nitrogen and ozone variability in the polar middle atmosphere, eventually resulting in further improvements in the representation of solar climate variability in global models.

On the mode of dynamo action in a global large-eddy simulation of solar convection

Abstract: In this paper, we examine the mode of dynamo action in the implicit large-eddy magnetohydrodynamical simulation of solar convection reported upon in Ghizaru et al. Motivated by the presence of a strong and well-defined large-scale axisymmetric magnetic component undergoing regular polarity reversals, we define the fluctuating component of the magnetic field as the difference between the total field and its zonal average. The subsequent analysis follows the physical logic and mathematical formulation of mean-field electrodynamics, whereby a turbulent electromotive force (EMF) is computed by the suitable averaging of cross-correlations between fluctuating flow and field components and expressed in terms of the mean field via a linear truncated tensorial expansion. We use singular value decomposition to perform a linear least-squares fit of the temporal variation of the EMF to that of the large-scale magnetic component, which yields the components of the full α-tensor. Its antisymmetric component, describing general turbulent pumping, is also extracted. The α-tensor so calculated reproduces a number of features already identified in local, Cartesian simulations of magnetohydrodynamical rotating convection, including an α component positive in the northern solar hemisphere, peaking at high latitudes, and reversing sign near the bottom of the convection zone; downward turbulent pumping throughout the convecting layer; and significant equatorward turbulent pumping at mid latitudes, and poleward at high latitudes in subsurface layers. We also find that the EMF contributes significantly to the regeneration of the large-scale toroidal magnetic component, which from the point of view of mean-field dynamo models would imply that the simulation operates as an α2Ω dynamo. We find little significant evidence of α-quenching by the large-scale magnetic field. The amplitude of the magnetic cycle appears instead to be regulated primarily by a magnetically driven reduction of the differential rotation.

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

Abstract: . Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.

Geophysical fluid dynamics.

Abstract: The potential for sea ice-albedo feedback to give rise to nonlinear climate change in the Arctic Ocean – defined as a nonlinear relationship between polar and global temperature change or, equivalently, a time-varying polar amplification – is explored in IPCC AR4 climate models. Five models supplying SRES A1B ensembles for the 21 st century are examined and very linear relationships are found between polar and global temperatures (indicating linear Arctic Ocean climate change), and between polar temperature and albedo (the potential source of nonlinearity). Two of the climate models have Arctic Ocean simulations that become annually sea ice-free under the stronger CO 2 increase to quadrupling forcing. Both of these runs show increases in polar amplification at polar temperatures above-5 o C and one exhibits heat budget changes that are consistent with the small ice cap instability of simple energy balance models. Both models show linear warming up to a polar temperature of-5 o C, well above the disappearance of their September ice covers at about-9 o C. Below-5 o C, surface albedo decreases smoothly as reductions move, progressively, to earlier parts of the sunlit period. Atmospheric heat transport exerts a strong cooling effect during the transition to annually ice-free conditions. Specialized experiments with atmosphere and coupled models show that the main damping mechanism for sea ice region surface temperature is reduced upward heat flux through the adjacent ice-free oceans resulting in reduced atmospheric heat transport into the region.

The Current State of Solar Modeling

Abstract: Data from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) project and other helioseismic experiments provide a test for models of stellar interiors and for the thermodynamic and radiative properties, on which the models depend, of matter under the extreme conditions found in the sun. Current models are in agreement with the helioseismic inferences, which suggests, for example, that the disagreement between the predicted and observed fluxes of neutrinos from the sun is not caused by errors in the models. However, the GONG data reveal subtle errors in the models, such as an excess in sound speed just beneath the convection zone. These discrepancies indicate effects that have so far not been correctly accounted for; for example, it is plausible that the sound-speed differences reflect weak mixing in stellar interiors, of potential importance to the overall evolution of stars and ultimately to estimates of the age of the galaxy based on stellar evolution calculations.

The Solar Cycle

Abstract: The Solar Cycle is reviewed. The 11-year cycle of solar activity is characterized by the rise and fall in the numbers and surface area of sunspots. We examine a number of other solar activity indicators including the 10.7 cm radio flux, the total solar irradiance, the magnetic field, flares and coronal mass ejections, geomagnetic activity, galactic cosmic ray fluxes, and radioisotopes in tree rings and ice cores that vary in association with the sunspots. We examine the characteristics of individual solar cycles including their maxima and minima, cycle periods and amplitudes, cycle shape, and the nature of active latitudes, hemispheres, and longitudes. We examine long-term variability including the Maunder Minimum, the Gleissberg Cycle, and the Gnevyshev-Ohl Rule. Short-term variability includes the 154-day periodicity, quasi-biennial variations, and double peaked maxima. We conclude with an examination of prediction techniques for the solar cycle.

New insights into large eddy simulation

Abstract: Fluid dynamic turbulence is one of the most challenging computational physics problems because of the extremely wide range of time and space scales involved, the strong nonlinearity of the governing equations, and the many practical and important applications. While most linear fluid instabilities are well understood, the nonlinear interactions among them makes even the relatively simple limit of homogeneous isotropic turbulence difficult to treat physically, mathematically, and computationally. Turbulence is modeled computationally by a two-stage bootstrap process. The first stage, direct numerical simulation, attempts to resolve the relevant physical time and space scales but its application is limited to diffusive flows with a relatively small Reynolds number (Re). Using direct numerical simulation to provide a database, in turn, allows calibration of phenomenological turbulence models for engineering applications. Large eddy simulation incorporates a form of turbulence modeling applicable when the large-scale flows of interest are intrinsically time dependent, thus throwing common statistical models into question. A promising approach to large eddy simulation involves the use of high-resolution monotone computational fluid dynamics algorithms such as flux-corrected transport or the piecewise parabolic method which have intrinsic subgrid turbulence models coupled naturally to the resolved scales in the computed flow. The physical considerations underlying and evidence supporting this monotone integrated large eddy simulation approach are discussed.