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Paul J. Valdes

Bio: Paul J. Valdes is an academic researcher from University of Bristol. The author has contributed to research in topics: Climate change & Climate model. The author has an hindex of 77, co-authored 344 publications receiving 20662 citations. Previous affiliations of Paul J. Valdes include University of Oxford & University of Reading.


Papers
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a set of coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations using state-of-the-art climate models is presented for the Last Glacial Maximum and the Mid-Holocene through the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2).
Abstract: . A set of coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations using state of the art climate models is now available for the Last Glacial Maximum and the Mid-Holocene through the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2). This study presents the large-scale features of the simulated climates and compares the new model results to those of the atmospheric models from the first phase of the PMIP, for which sea surface temperature was prescribed or computed using simple slab ocean formulations. We consider the large-scale features of the climate change, pointing out some of the major differences between the different sets of experiments. We show in particular that systematic differences between PMIP1 and PMIP2 simulations are due to the interactive ocean, such as the amplification of the African monsoon at the Mid-Holocene or the change in precipitation in mid-latitudes at the LGM. Also the PMIP2 simulations are in general in better agreement with data than PMIP1 simulations.

1,170 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors outline the climate forcings and setup of the Met Office Hadley Centre ESM, HadGEM2-ES for the CMIP5 set of centennial experiments.
Abstract: . The scientific understanding of the Earth's climate system, including the central question of how the climate system is likely to respond to human-induced perturbations, is comprehensively captured in GCMs and Earth System Models (ESM). Diagnosing the simulated climate response, and comparing responses across different models, is crucially dependent on transparent assumptions of how the GCM/ESM has been driven – especially because the implementation can involve subjective decisions and may differ between modelling groups performing the same experiment. This paper outlines the climate forcings and setup of the Met Office Hadley Centre ESM, HadGEM2-ES for the CMIP5 set of centennial experiments. We document the prescribed greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol precursors, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone assumptions, as well as implementation of land-use change and natural forcings for the HadGEM2-ES historical and future experiments following the Representative Concentration Pathways. In addition, we provide details of how HadGEM2-ES ensemble members were initialised from the control run and how the palaeoclimate and AMIP experiments, as well as the "emission-driven" RCP experiments were performed.

843 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the existence and possible self-maintenance of storm-tracks is investigated using a linear, stationary wave model with storm-track region forcings taken from data averaged over a number of winters.
Abstract: Given that middle latitude weather systems transport heat in a manner such as to weaken the baroclinicity that is thought to be crucial to their growth, it is perhaps surprising that concentrated regions of such eddy activity, i.e. storm-tracks, are found in the Northern Hemisphere winter. The existence and possible self-maintenance of storm-tracks is investigated using a linear, stationary wave model with storm-track region forcings taken from data averaged over a number of winters. It is found that the direct thermal effect of the eddies does indeed act against the existence of the storm-track. Their vorticity fluxes lead to some reduction of this effect. It is argued that the mean diabatic heating in the storm-track region is an indirect eddy effect. This heating is found to maintain the mean maximum in baroclinicity in the region. Further, the mean low-level flow induced by the eddy effects is such as to enhance the warm western oceanic boundary currents that are crucial to the existence of t...

832 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
17 Nov 2011-Nature
TL;DR: It is shown that climate has been a major driver of population change over the past 50,000 years, however, each species responds differently to the effects of climatic shifts, habitat redistribution and human encroachment.
Abstract: Despite decades of research, the roles of climate and humans in driving the dramatic extinctions of large-bodied mammals during the Late Quaternary period remain contentious. Here we use ancient DNA, species distribution models and the human fossil record to elucidate how climate and humans shaped the demographic history of woolly rhinoceros, woolly mammoth, wild horse, reindeer, bison and musk ox. We show that climate has been a major driver of population change over the past 50,000 years. However, each species responds differently to the effects of climatic shifts, habitat redistribution and human encroachment. Although climate change alone can explain the extinction of some species, such as Eurasian musk ox and woolly rhinoceros, a combination of climatic and anthropogenic effects appears to be responsible for the extinction of others, including Eurasian steppe bison and wild horse. We find no genetic signature or any distinctive range dynamics distinguishing extinct from surviving species, emphasizing the challenges associated with predicting future responses of extant mammals to climate and human-mediated habitat change.

582 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
06 Feb 2003-Nature
TL;DR: It is concluded that the elevation of the southern Tibetan plateau probably has remained unchanged for the past 15 Myr, similar to the present-day altitude of 4,600 m.
Abstract: The uplift of the Tibetan plateau, an area that is 2,000 km wide, to an altitude of about 5,000 m has been shown to modify global climate and to influence monsoon intensity. Mechanical and thermal models for homogeneous thickening of the lithosphere make specific predictions about uplift rates of the Tibetan plateau, but the precise history of the uplift of the plateau has yet to be confirmed by observations. Here we present well-preserved fossil leaf assemblages from the Namling basin, southern Tibet, dated to approximately 15 Myr ago, which allow us to reconstruct the temperatures within the basin at that time. Using a numerical general circulation model to estimate moist static energy at the location of the fossil leaves, we reconstruct the elevation of the Namling basin 15 Myr ago to be 4,689 +/- 895 m or 4,638 +/- 847 m, depending on the reference data used. This is comparable to the present-day altitude of 4,600 m. We conclude that the elevation of the southern Tibetan plateau probably has remained unchanged for the past 15 Myr.

564 citations


Cited by
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TL;DR: In this paper, Heaton, AG Hogg, KA Hughen, KF Kaiser, B Kromer, SW Manning, RW Reimer, DA Richards, JR Southon, S Talamo, CSM Turney, J van der Plicht, CE Weyhenmeyer
Abstract: Additional co-authors: TJ Heaton, AG Hogg, KA Hughen, KF Kaiser, B Kromer, SW Manning, RW Reimer, DA Richards, JR Southon, S Talamo, CSM Turney, J van der Plicht, CE Weyhenmeyer

13,605 citations

Journal Article
TL;DR: For the next few weeks the course is going to be exploring a field that’s actually older than classical population genetics, although the approach it’ll be taking to it involves the use of population genetic machinery.
Abstract: So far in this course we have dealt entirely with the evolution of characters that are controlled by simple Mendelian inheritance at a single locus. There are notes on the course website about gametic disequilibrium and how allele frequencies change at two loci simultaneously, but we didn’t discuss them. In every example we’ve considered we’ve imagined that we could understand something about evolution by examining the evolution of a single gene. That’s the domain of classical population genetics. For the next few weeks we’re going to be exploring a field that’s actually older than classical population genetics, although the approach we’ll be taking to it involves the use of population genetic machinery. If you know a little about the history of evolutionary biology, you may know that after the rediscovery of Mendel’s work in 1900 there was a heated debate between the “biometricians” (e.g., Galton and Pearson) and the “Mendelians” (e.g., de Vries, Correns, Bateson, and Morgan). Biometricians asserted that the really important variation in evolution didn’t follow Mendelian rules. Height, weight, skin color, and similar traits seemed to

9,847 citations

01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris.
Abstract: Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe

7,720 citations

Journal Article
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a document, redatto, voted and pubblicato by the Ipcc -Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.
Abstract: Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

4,187 citations

Journal Article
TL;DR: In this paper, a documento: "Cambiamenti climatici 2007: impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita" voteato ad aprile 2007 dal secondo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato Intergovernativo sui Cambiamentsi Climatici (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).
Abstract: Impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita Le cause e le responsabilita dei cambiamenti climatici sono state trattate sul numero di ottobre della rivista Cda. Approfondiamo l’argomento presentando il documento: “Cambiamenti climatici 2007: impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita” votato ad aprile 2007 dal secondo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato Intergovernativo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Si tratta del secondo di tre documenti che compongono il quarto rapporto sui cambiamenti climatici.

3,979 citations