統計年鑑 = Statistical yearbook

Raising school enrollment, like economic development in general, takes a long time. This is partly because, as a mountain of empirical evidence now shows, economic conditions and slowly-changing parental education levels determine children's school enrollment to a greater degree than education policy interventions. A succession of international meetings has nevertheless adopted a litany of utopian international goals for universal school enrollment and gender parity in education based on the idea that a correct education policy backed by sufficient cash could achieve the goals in short order. The latest of these, the Millennium Development Goals, call for universal primary schooling and full gender parity by 2015. This work quantifies how long it has taken countries rich and poor to make the transition towards high enrollments and gender parity. There are three central lessons. First, there is a remarkable uniformity of experience in the rates of enrollment increases, a reality from which the various rounds of goals appear entirely detached. Second, many countries that have not raised enrollments fast enough to meet the goals have in fact raised enrollments extraordinarily rapidly by historical standards and deserve celebration rather than condemnation. The very few poor countries that have raised enrollment figures at the rates envisioned by the goals have done so in many cases by accepting dramatic declines in schooling quality, failing large numbers of students, or other practices that cast doubt on the sustainability or exportability of their techniques. Third, aid-supported education policies can help within limits, and their performance should be judged in the context of country-specific, historically-grounded goals. But a country's broader development strategy outside the classroom matters much more than education policy.

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The Long Walk to School: International Education Goals in Historical Perspective

Combining qualitative–quantitative approaches, we examined the reasons behind household movements into and out of poverty across Kenya, and how they differ by livelihood zones. Among the 4773 households studied, 42 per cent were poor 15 years ago and 50 per cent are poor at the present time. Over the same period, 12 per cent of the households escaped poverty, while another 20 per cent fell into poverty. While some national trends were evident – such as the role of health problems in driving people into poverty and the importance of off-farm income in getting them out – many reasons differ across livelihood zones, thus this paper provides an example of how regionally differentiated anti-poverty policies can be investigated and designed. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Understanding poverty dynamics in Kenya

The issue of child labour in the artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) economy is attracting significant attention worldwide. This article critically examines this ‘problem’ in the context of sub-Saharan Africa, where a lack of formal sector employment opportunities and/or the need to provide financial support to their impoverished families has led tens of thousands of children to take up work in this industry. The article begins by engaging with the main debates on child labour in an attempt to explain why young boys and girls elect to pursue arduous work in ASM camps across the region. The remainder of the article uses the Ghana experience to further articulate the challenges associated with eradicating child labour at ASM camps, drawing upon recent fieldwork undertaken in Talensi-Nabdam District, Upper East Region. Overall, the issue of child labour in African ASM communities has been diagnosed far too superficially, and until donor agencies and host governments fully come to grips with the underlying causes of the poverty responsible for its existence, it will continue to burgeon.

Child labour in African Artisanal Mining Communities: experiences from Northern Ghana

Malaria imposes significant costs on households and the poor are disproportionately affected. However, cost data are often from quantitative surveys with a fixed recall period. They do not capture costs that unfold slowly over time, or seasonal variations. Few studies investigate the different pathways through which malaria contributes towards poverty. In this paper, a framework indicating the complex links between malaria, poverty and vulnerability at the household level is developed and applied using data from rural Kenya. Cross-sectional surveys in a wet and dry season provide data on treatment-seeking, cost-burdens and coping strategies (n = 294 and n = 285 households respectively). 15 case study households purposively selected from the survey and followed for one year provide in-depth qualitative information on the links between malaria, vulnerability and poverty. Mean direct cost burdens were 7.1% and 5.9% of total household expenditure in the wet and dry seasons respectively. Case study data revealed no clear relationship between cost burdens and vulnerability status at the end of the year. Most important was household vulnerability status at the outset. Households reporting major malaria episodes and other shocks prior to the study descended further into poverty over the year. Wealthier households were better able to cope. The impacts of malaria on household economic status unfold slowly over time. Coping strategies adopted can have negative implications, influencing household ability to withstand malaria and other contingencies in future. To protect the poor and vulnerable, malaria control policies need to be integrated into development and poverty reduction programmes.

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Rethinking the economic costs of malaria at the household level: evidence from applying a new analytical framework in rural Kenya.

Since independence in 1963 Kenya has invested substantial resources in the education sector. For almost twenty-five years these investments and other government policies led to impressive gains in educational access at all levels. However since the mid-to late 1980s there appears to have been an erosion in educational participation and a reversal of the gains achieved in previous decades. Motivated by this trend this paper uses temporal cross-section and pseudo-panel data to assess the plausibility of various factors that may be responsible for the decline in primary school educational enrolment. In particular we consider the role of school fees school inputs and curriculum school availability the expected benefits of education and the spread of HIV/AIDS. We also try to identify the most effective policy interventions that may be used to prevent further declines in primary school enrolment rates. (authors)

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The decline in primary school enrolment in Kenya

A Situational Analysis of Poverty in Kenya

Household surveys provide data that is used for identifying and measuring the poverty status of households and individuals. However, carrying out such surveys is expensive, especially in poor developing countries. Thus it is important to make maximum use of the available survey data in developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, where such data are expensive to collect and analyse. This paper develops a simple method for using poverty indices derived from survey data for a given year, to predict poverty rates for subsequent periods without having to conduct a new household survey. We illustrate the workings of the method with data from Kenyan household surveys for 1994 and 1997.

Predicting Household Poverty: A Methodological Note with a Kenyan Example

A Review of the Health Sector in Kenya

Kenya has experienced a rapid expansion of the education system partly due to high government expenditure on education. Despite the high level of expenditure on education, primary school enrolment has been declining since early 1990s and until 2003 when gross primary school enrolment increased to 104 percent after the introduction of free primary education. However, with an estimated net primary school enrolment rate of 77 percent, the country is far from achieving universal primary education. The worrying scenario is that the allocations of resources within the education sector seems to be ineffective as the increasing expenditure on education goes to recurrent expenditure (to pay teachers salaries). Kenya's Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) and the Economic Recovery Strategy for wealth and Employment Creation (ERS) outlines education targets of reaching universal primary education by 2015. The Government is faced with budget constrains and therefore the available resources need to be allocated efficiently in order to realize the education targets. The paper uses Budget Negotiation Framework (BNF) to analyze the cost effective ways of resource allocation in the primary education sector to achieve universal primary education and other education targets. Budget Negotiation Framework is a tool that aims at achieving equity and efficiency in resource allocation. Results from the analysis shows that universal primary education by the year 2015 is a feasible target for Kenya. The results also show that with a more cost- effective spending of education resources - increased trained teachers, enhanced textbook supplies and subsidies targeting the poor - the country could realize higher enrolment rates than what has been achieved with free primary education.

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Paul K. Kimalu

Papers

The decline in primary school enrolment in Kenya

A Situational Analysis of Poverty in Kenya

Predicting Household Poverty: A Methodological Note with a Kenyan Example

A Review of the Health Sector in Kenya

Achieving Universal Primary Education: Can Kenya Afford it?