Paul Poast

Bio: Paul Poast is an academic researcher from University of Chicago. The author has contributed to research in topics: Alliance & Democratization. The author has an hindex of 17, co-authored 39 publications receiving 1118 citations. Previous affiliations of Paul Poast include University of Michigan & Rutgers University.

NewGene: A Conceptual Manual

Abstract: This paper introduces a complete redesign of the popular EUGene software, called NewGene. Like EUGene, NewGene is software designed to eliminate many of the difficulties commonly involved in constructing large international relations data sets. NewGene is a stand-alone Microsoft Windows and Osx based program for the construction of annual, monthly, and daily data sets for the variety of decision making units (e.g. countries, leaders, organizations, etc) used in quantitative studies of international relations. It also provides users the ability to construct units of analysis ranging from monads (e.g. country-year), to dyads (e.g. country1-country2-year), to extra-dyadic observations called k-ads (e.g. country1-country2-…-countryk-year). NewGene’s purpose is to provide a highly flexible platform on which users can construct datasets for international relations research using pre-loaded data or by incorporating their own data.

Mis)Using Dyadic Data to Analyze Multilateral Events

Abstract: Dyadic (state-pair) data is completely inappropriate for analyzing multilateral events (such as large alliances and major wars). Scholars, particularly in international relations, often divide the actors in a multilateral event into a series of dyadic relations. Though this practice can dramatically increase the size of data sets, using dyadic data to analyze what are, in reality, /c-adic events leads to model misspecification and, inevitably, statistical bias. In short, one cannot recover a /c-adic data generating process using c/y-adic data. In this paper, I accomplish three tasks. First, I use Monte Carlo simulations to confirm that analyzing /c-adic events with dyadic data produces substantial bias. Second, I show that choice-based sampling, as popularized by King and Zeng (2001a, Explaining rare events in international relations. International Organization 55:693-715, and 2001 b, Logistic regression in rare events data. Political Analysis 9:137-63), can be used to create feasibly sized /c-adic data sets. Finally, I use the study of alliance formation by Gibler and Wolford (2006, Alliances, then democracy: An examination of the relationship between regime type and alliance formation. The Journal of Conflict Resolution 50:1-25) to illustrate how to apply this choice-based sampling solution and explain how to code independent variables in a /c-adic context.

Why Do States Build Walls? Political Economy, Security, and Border Stability

Abstract: Borders constitute the international system of states. Accordingly, states will, from time to time, take assertive measures to secure the border, with among the most aggressive strategies being the construction of physical barriers, which we refer to as \border walls". Using original data on man-made border wall construction from 1800 to 2013, we theorize and nd that in many cases wall construction is about economic-security. Signicant economic disparities between the states will create incentives to illegally transport people or move goods readily available in the poorer country but highly regulated in the richer country. We nd that economic disparities have a substantial and signicant impact on the presence of a physical wall that is independent of formal border disputes and concerns over instability from civil wars in neighbors. In other words, the prominent example of the Maginot Line, constructed largely out of fear of attack, is an exception, not the exemplar, of the reasons states construct border walls.

Does Issue Linkage Work? Evidence from European Alliance Negotiations, 1860 to 1945

Abstract: Though scholars widely claim that issue linkage—the simultaneous negotiation of multiple issues for joint settlement—can help states conclude international agreements, there exist some notable skeptics. Resolving this debate requires empirical evidence. However, beyond a few case studies, there exists no direct and systematic evidence that issue linkages actually increase the probability of agreement. I address this lack of direct and systematic evidence by combing original data on failed alliance negotiations with data from the Alliance Treaty Obligations and Provisions (ATOP) database. Using matching techniques, I find that, for alliance negotiations between 1860 to 1945, offers of trade linkage did substantially increase the probability of agreement. Besides confirming issue linkage's ability to help clinch an agreement, this article's research design and evidence have far-reaching implications for the study of negotiations and alliances. The research design illustrates the value of considering the “dogs that didn't bark” as it identifies both successful and failed negotiations. The article's evidence explains the high rate of alliance compliance identified by previous scholars and highlights a need to rethink the alliance formation process.

Backing Out or Backing In? Commitment and Consistency in Audience Costs Theory

Abstract: Audience costs theory posits that domestic publics punish leaders for making an external threat and then backing down. One key mechanism driving this punishment involves the value the public places on consistency between their leaders’ statements and actions. If true, this mechanism should operate not only when leaders fail to implement threats, but also when they fail to honor promises to stay out of a conflict. We use a survey experiment to examine domestic responses to the president's decision to “back down” from public threats and “back into” foreign conflicts. We find the president loses support in both cases, but suffers more for “backing out” than “backing in.” These differential consequences are partially explained by asymmetries in the public's treatment of new information. Our findings strongly suggest that concerns over consistency undergird audience costs theory and that punishment for inconsistency will be incurred, regardless of the leader's initial policy course

Economic freedom of the world

Abstract: This report uses 42 distinct variables to create an index ranking of countries around the world based on policies that encourage economic freedom, and places Australia at number 10. Executive summary The index published in Economic Freedom of the World measures the degree to which the policies and institutions of countries are supportive of economic freedom. The cornerstones of economic freedom are personal choice, voluntary exchange, freedom to compete, and security of privately owned property. Forty-two variables are used to construct a summary index and to measure the degree of economic freedom in five broad areas: 1 Size of Government; 2 Legal System and Property Rights; 3 Sound Money; 4 Freedom to Trade Internationally; 5 Regulation. Since our first publication in 1996, numerous studies have used the data published in Economic Freedom of the World to examine the impact of economic freedom on investment, economic growth, income levels, and poverty rates. Virtually without exception, these studies have found that countries with institutions and policies more consistent with economic freedom have higher investment rates, more rapid economic growth, higher income levels, and a more rapid reduction in poverty rates. The EFW index now covers 152 countries and territories. Data are available for approximately 100 nations and territories back to 1980, and many back to 1970.3 This data set makes it possible for scholars to analyze the impact of both cross-country differences in economic freedom and changes in that freedom across a threedecade time frame.

The Economics Of Money Banking And Financial Markets

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