Author
Pavan Kumar
Other affiliations: Kumaun University, Jamia Millia Islamia
Bio: Pavan Kumar is an academic researcher from Central Agricultural University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Population & Land cover. The author has an hindex of 14, co-authored 53 publications receiving 578 citations. Previous affiliations of Pavan Kumar include Kumaun University & Jamia Millia Islamia.
Papers
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TL;DR: A comparison was done between the identified top 15 countries for confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries, and an advanced autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used for predicting the COVID-19 disease spread trajectories for the next 2 months.
Abstract: Background: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has affected more than 200 countries and has infected more than 2,800,000 people as of April 24, 2020. It was first identified in Wuhan City in China in December 2019.
Objective: The aim of this study is to identify the top 15 countries with spatial mapping of the confirmed cases. A comparison was done between the identified top 15 countries for confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries, and an advanced autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used for predicting the COVID-19 disease spread trajectories for the next 2 months.
Methods: The comparison of recent cumulative and predicted cases was done for the top 15 countries with confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries from COVID-19. The spatial map is useful to identify the intensity of COVID-19 infections in the top 15 countries and the continents. The recent reported data for confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries for the last 3 months was represented and compared between the top 15 infected countries. The advanced ARIMA model was used for predicting future data based on time series data. The ARIMA model provides a weight to past values and error values to correct the model prediction, so it is better than other basic regression and exponential methods. The comparison of recent cumulative and predicted cases was done for the top 15 countries with confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries from COVID-19.
Results: The top 15 countries with a high number of confirmed cases were stratified to include the data in a mathematical model. The identified top 15 countries with cumulative cases, deaths, and recoveries from COVID-19 were compared. The United States, the United Kingdom, Turkey, China, and Russia saw a relatively fast spread of the disease. There was a fast recovery ratio in China, Switzerland, Germany, Iran, and Brazil, and a slow recovery ratio in the United States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Russia, and Italy. There was a high death rate ratio in Italy and the United Kingdom and a lower death rate ratio in Russia, Turkey, China, and the United States. The ARIMA model was used to predict estimated confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries for the top 15 countries from April 24 to July 7, 2020. Its value is represented with 95%, 80%, and 70% confidence interval values. The validation of the ARIMA model was done using the Akaike information criterion value; its values were about 20, 14, and 16 for cumulative confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries of COVID-19, respectively, which represents acceptable results.
Conclusions: The observed predicted values showed that the confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries will double in all the observed countries except China, Switzerland, and Germany. It was also observed that the death and recovery rates were rose faster when compared to confirmed cases over the next 2 months. The associated mortality rate will be much higher in the United States, Spain, and Italy followed by France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The forecast analysis of the COVID-19 dynamics showed a different angle for the whole world, and it looks scarier than imagined, but recovery numbers start looking promising by July 7, 2020.
167 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors report on the various consequences of the COVID-19 lockdown for farming systems in India, including the economy, taking into account the associated emergency responses of state and national governments.
77 citations
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TL;DR: Based on the predictions, public health officials should tailor aggressive interventions to grasp the power exponential growth, and rapid infection control measures at hospital levels are urgently needed to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic.
Abstract: We here predicted some trajectories of COVID-19 in the coming days (until April 30, 2020) using the most advanced Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA). Our analysis predicted very frightening outcomes, which defines to worsen the conditions in Iran, entire Europe, especially Italy, Spain, and France. While South Korea, after the initial blast, has come to stability, the same goes for the COVID-19 origin country China with more positive recovery cases and confirm to remain stable. The United States of America (USA) will come as a surprise and going to become the epicenter for new cases during the mid-April 2020. Based on our predictions, public health officials should tailor aggressive interventions to grasp the power exponential growth, and rapid infection control measures at hospital levels are urgently needed to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic.
70 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used remote sensing images to predict the precise carbon content associated with organic matter in the soil using NDVI and related equations, to prepare digital soil organic carbon map.
52 citations
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TL;DR: In this article, the impact of urban heat island (UHI) on land surface temperature in Haridwar district, Uttrakhand India and Kanpur district, Uttar Pradesh in India has been investigated.
44 citations
Cited by
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01 Jan 2015
TL;DR: The work of the IPCC Working Group III 5th Assessment report as mentioned in this paper is a comprehensive, objective and policy neutral assessment of the current scientific knowledge on mitigating climate change, which has been extensively reviewed by experts and governments to ensure quality and comprehensiveness.
Abstract: The talk with present the key results of the IPCC Working Group III 5th assessment report. Concluding four years of intense scientific collaboration by hundreds of authors from around the world, the report responds to the request of the world's governments for a comprehensive, objective and policy neutral assessment of the current scientific knowledge on mitigating climate change. The report has been extensively reviewed by experts and governments to ensure quality and comprehensiveness.
3,224 citations
01 Jan 2016
TL;DR: The remote sensing and image interpretation is universally compatible with any devices to read and is available in the digital library an online access to it is set as public so you can get it instantly.
Abstract: Thank you very much for downloading remote sensing and image interpretation. As you may know, people have look hundreds times for their favorite novels like this remote sensing and image interpretation, but end up in malicious downloads. Rather than reading a good book with a cup of tea in the afternoon, instead they are facing with some malicious virus inside their computer. remote sensing and image interpretation is available in our digital library an online access to it is set as public so you can get it instantly. Our book servers spans in multiple countries, allowing you to get the most less latency time to download any of our books like this one. Merely said, the remote sensing and image interpretation is universally compatible with any devices to read.
1,802 citations
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TL;DR: It was showed that being a woman, having fair/poor general health status, being 18 to 24 years old, spending 8 or more hours on screens daily, and knowing someone infected predicted higher levels of psychological impact when risk factors were considered simultaneously.
Abstract: Background University students are increasingly recognized as a vulnerable population, suffering from higher levels of anxiety, depression, substance abuse, and disordered eating compared to the general population. Therefore, when the nature of their educational experience radically changes—such as sheltering in place during the COVID-19 pandemic—the burden on the mental health of this vulnerable population is amplified. The objectives of this study are to 1) identify the array of psychological impacts COVID-19 has on students, 2) develop profiles to characterize students' anticipated levels of psychological impact during the pandemic, and 3) evaluate potential sociodemographic, lifestyle-related, and awareness of people infected with COVID-19 risk factors that could make students more likely to experience these impacts. Methods Cross-sectional data were collected through web-based questionnaires from seven U.S. universities. Representative and convenience sampling was used to invite students to complete the questionnaires in mid-March to early-May 2020, when most coronavirus-related sheltering in place orders were in effect. We received 2,534 completed responses, of which 61% were from women, 79% from non-Hispanic Whites, and 20% from graduate students. Results Exploratory factor analysis on close-ended responses resulted in two latent constructs, which we used to identify profiles of students with latent profile analysis, including high (45% of sample), moderate (40%), and low (14%) levels of psychological impact. Bivariate associations showed students who were women, were non-Hispanic Asian, in fair/poor health, of below-average relative family income, or who knew someone infected with COVID-19 experienced higher levels of psychological impact. Students who were non-Hispanic White, above-average social class, spent at least two hours outside, or less than eight hours on electronic screens were likely to experience lower levels of psychological impact. Multivariate modeling (mixed-effects logistic regression) showed that being a woman, having fair/poor general health status, being 18 to 24 years old, spending 8 or more hours on screens daily, and knowing someone infected predicted higher levels of psychological impact when risk factors were considered simultaneously. Conclusion Inadequate efforts to recognize and address college students’ mental health challenges, especially during a pandemic, could have long-term consequences on their health and education.
444 citations
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TL;DR: The use of UAVs in forestry will increase, possibly leading to a regular utilization for small-scale monitoring purposes in Europe when recent technologies (i.e. hyperspectral imagery and lidar) and methodological approaches will be consolidated.
Abstract: Unfortunately, the fragmented regulations among EU countries, a result of the lack of common rules for operating UAVs in Europe, limit the chance to operate within Europe’s boundaries and prevent research mobility and exchange opportunities. Nevertheless, the applications of UAVs are expanding in different domains, and the use of UAVs in forestry will increase, possibly leading to a regular utilization for small-scale monitoring purposes in Europe when recent technologies i.e. hyperspectral imagery and lidar and methodological approaches will be consolidated.
341 citations