Pentti Zetterberg

Bio: Pentti Zetterberg is an academic researcher from University of Eastern Finland. The author has contributed to research in topics: Arctic & Tundra. The author has an hindex of 12, co-authored 17 publications receiving 2346 citations.

Fennoscandian summers from ad 500: temperature changes on short and long timescales

Abstract: Quantitative estimates of 1480 years of summer temperatures in northern Fennoscandia have previously been derived from continuous treering records from northern Sweden. Here we show the results of spectral analyses of these data. Only a few peaks in the spectra are consistently significant when the data are analyzed over a number of sub-periods. Relatively timestable peaks are apparent at periods of 2.1, 2.5, 3.1, 3.6, 4.8, ∼ 32–33 and for a range between ∼ 55–100 years. These results offer no strong evidence for solar-related forcing of summer temperatures in these regions. Our previously published reconstruction was limited in its ability to represent long-timescale temperature change because of the method used to standardize the original tree-ring data. Here we employ an alternative standardization technique which enables us to capture temperature change on longer timescales. Considerable variance is now reconstructed on timescales of several centuries. In comparison with modern normals (1951–70) generally extended periods when cool conditions prevailed, prior to the start of the instrumental record, include 500–700, 790–870, 1110–1150, 1190–1360, 1570–1750 (A.D.) with the most significant cold troughs centred on about 660, 800, 1140, 1580–1620 and 1640. Predominantly warm conditions occurred in 720–790, 870–1110 and 1360–1570 with peaks of warmth around 750, 930, 990, 1060, 1090, 1160, 1410, 1430, 1760 and 1820.

A 1,400-year tree-ring record of summer temperatures in Fennoscandia

Abstract: Tree-ring data have been used to reconstruct the mean summer (April-August) temperature of northern Fennoscandia for each year from AD 500 to the present. Summer temperatures have fluctuated markedly on annual, decadal and century timescales. There is little evidence for the existence of a Medieval Warm Epoch, and the Little Ice Age seems to be confined to the relatively short period between 1570 and 1650. This challenges the popular idea that these events were the major climate excursions of the first millennium, occurring synchronously throughout Europe in all seasons. An analysis of past warming trends suggests that any summer warming induced by greenhouse gases may not be detectable in this region until after 2030.

Russian Arctic warming and ‘greening’ are closely tracked by tundra shrub willows

Abstract: Growth in arctic vegetation is generally expected to increase under a warming climate, particularly among deciduous shrubs. We analyzed annual ring growth for an abundant and nearly circumpolar erect willow (Salix lanata L.) from the coastal zone of the northwest Russian Arctic (Nenets Autonomous Okrug). The resulting chronology is strongly related to summer temperature for the period 1942–2005. Remarkably high correlations occur at long distances (>1600 km) across the tundra and taiga zones of West Siberia and Eastern Europe. We also found a clear relationship with photosynthetic activity for upland vegetation at a regional scale for the period 1981–2005, confirming a parallel ‘greening’ trend reported for similarly warming North American portions of the tundra biome. The standardized growth curve suggests a significant increase in shrub willow growth over the last six decades. These findings are in line with field and remote sensing studies that have assigned a strong shrub component to the reported greening signal since the early 1980s. Furthermore, the growth trend agrees with qualitative observations by nomadic Nenets reindeer herders of recent increases in willow size in the region. The quality of the chronology as a climate proxy is exceptional. Given its wide geographic distribution and the ready preservation of wood in permafrost, S. lanata L. has great potential for extended temperature reconstructions in remote areas across the Arctic.

Eurasian Arctic greening reveals teleconnections and the potential for structurally novel ecosystems

Abstract: Increasing shrub cover on Arctic tundra is linked to climate warming, which is partially amplified by sea ice feedbacks, but the nature of these interactions remains poorly understood. Now research indicates that tundra plant productivity in late spring relates to sea-ice-driven temperature amplification but that the growing season peak is more closely associated with persistent large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.

The supra-long Scots pine tree-ring record for Finnish Lapland: Part 1, chronology construction and initial inferences

Abstract: This paper reviews the development of the current 'supra-long' pine chronologyfor northern Finnish Lapland. In the forest-tundra ecotone region of northern Finnish Lapland over 250 samples from living Scots pines (Pinussylvestris L.) and over 1700samples of subfossil pines have been collected for dendrochronological studies. In addition, over 1400 subfossils have been sampled from the forested area of Finnish Lapland. The goal of the research was to build a more than 7000-year long continuous pine ring-width chronology. The construction of the chronology is now completed. The intensive phase of the data collection and chronology building lasted about 10 years, 1989 to 1999. The major part of the Finnish Lapland master curve was con- structed several years ago, but it was extremely dife cult to bridge the c. 300-year gap, prior to 165 bc between the 'absolute' younger part of the chronology and the 'e oating' older part. The crucial samples were identieed and assembled in the chronology in early 1999, and there is now an unbroken pine chronology about 7500 years long constructed from the subfossil forest-limit pines of northern Finnish Lapland. The severe growth depression centred on 330 bc is likely to have been caused by increased wetness. A brief summary is presented of inferred tree-line changes from the location of the samples.

Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries

Abstract: Spatially resolved global reconstructions of annual surface temperature patterns over the past six centuries are based on the multivariate calibration of widely distributed high-resolution proxy climate indicators. Time-dependent correlations of the reconstructions with time-series records representing changes in greenhouse-gas concentrations, solar irradiance, and volcanic aerosols suggest that each of these factors has contributed to the climate variability of the past 400 years, with greenhouse gases emerging as the dominant forcing during the twentieth century. Northern Hemisphere mean annual temperatures for three of the past eight years are warmer than any other year since (at least) ad 1400.

Terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle

Abstract: The terrestrial biosphere plays an important role in the global carbon cycle. In the 1994 Intergovernmental Panel Assessment on Climate Change (IPCC), an effort was made to improve the quantification of terrestrial exchanges and potential feedbacks from climate, changing CO2, and other factors; this paper presents the key results from that assessment, together with expanded discussion. The carbon cycle is the fluxes of carbon among four main reservoirs: fossil carbon, the atmosphere, the oceans, and the terrestrial biosphere. Emissions of fossil carbon during the 1980s averaged 5.5 Gt y−1. During the same period, the atmosphere gained 3.2 Gt C y−1 and the oceans are believed to have absorbed 2.0 Gt C y−1. The regrowing forests of the Northern Hemisphere may have absorbed 0.5 Gt C y−1 during this period. Meanwhile, tropical deforestation is thought to have released an average 1.6 Gt C y−1 over the 1980s. While the fluxes among the four pools should balance, the average 198Ds values lead to a ‘missing sink’ of 1.4 Gt C y−1 Several processes, including forest regrowth, CO2 fertilization of plant growth (c. 1.0 Gt C y−1), N deposition (c. 0.6 Gt C y−1), and their interactions, may account for the budget imbalance. However, it remains difficult to quantify the influences of these separate but interactive processes. Uncertainties in the individual numbers are large, and are themselves poorly quantified. This paper presents detail beyond the IPCC assessment on procedures used to approximate the flux uncertainties. Lack of knowledge about positive and negative feedbacks from the biosphere is a major limiting factor to credible simulations of future atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Analyses of the atmospheric gradients of CO2 and 13 CO2 concentrations provide increasingly strong evidence for terrestrial sinks, potentially distributed between Northern Hemisphere and tropical regions, but conclusive detection in direct biomass and soil measurements remains elusive. Current regional-to-global terrestrial ecosystem models with coupled carbon and nitrogen cycles represent the effects of CO2 fertilization differently, but all suggest longterm responses to CO2 that are substantially smaller than potential leaf- or laboratory whole plant-level responses. Analyses of emissions and biogeochemical fluxes consistent with eventual stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations are sensitive to the way in which biospheric feedbacks are modeled by c. 15%. Decisions about land use can have effects of 100s of Gt C over the next few centuries, with similarly significant effects on the atmosphere. Critical areas for future research are continued measurements and analyses of atmospheric data (CO2 and 13CO2) to serve as large-scale constraints, process studies of the scaling from the photosynthetic response to CO2 to whole-ecosystem carbon storage, and rigorous quantification of the effects of changing land use on carbon storage.

Low-Frequency Signals in Long Tree-Ring Chronologies for Reconstructing Past Temperature Variability

Abstract: Preserving multicentennial climate variability in long tree-ring records is critically important for reconstructing the full range of temperature variability over the past 1000 years. This allows the putative “Medieval Warm Period” (MWP) to be described and to be compared with 20th-century warming in modeling and attribution studies. We demonstrate that carefully selected tree-ring chronologies from 14 sites in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics can preserve such coherent large-scale, multicentennial temperature trends if proper methods of analysis are used. In addition, we show that the average of these chronologies supports the large-scale occurrence of the MWP over the NH extratropics.