Author
Peter Rayner
Other affiliations: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Monash University, Clayton campus, Centre national de la recherche scientifique ...read more
Bio: Peter Rayner is an academic researcher from University of Melbourne. The author has contributed to research in topics: Greenhouse gas & Carbon cycle. The author has an hindex of 58, co-authored 182 publications receiving 16043 citations. Previous affiliations of Peter Rayner include Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation & Monash University, Clayton campus.
Papers published on a yearly basis
Papers
More filters
••
Met Office1, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research2, Centre national de la recherche scientifique3, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution4, University of Victoria5, University of California, Berkeley6, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory7, University of Bern8, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology9, University of Bristol10, National Center for Atmospheric Research11, University of Calgary12, Max Planck Society13, University of Maryland, College Park14
TL;DR: In this article, eleven coupled climate-carbon cycle models were used to study the coupling between climate change and the carbon cycle. But, there was still a large uncertainty on the magnitude of these sensitivities.
Abstract: Eleven coupled climate–carbon cycle models used a common protocol to study the coupling between climate change and the carbon cycle. The models were forced by historical emissions and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 anthropogenic emissions of CO2 for the 1850–2100 time period. For each model, two simulations were performed in order to isolate the impact of climate change on the land and ocean carbon cycle, and therefore the climate feedback on the atmospheric CO2 concentration growth rate. There was unanimous agreement among the models that future climate change will reduce the efficiency of the earth system to absorb the anthropogenic carbon perturbation. A larger fraction of anthropogenic CO2 will stay airborne if climate change is accounted for. By the end of the twenty-first century, this additional CO2 varied between 20 and 200 ppm for the two extreme models, the majority of the models lying between 50 and 100 ppm. The higher CO2 levels led to an additional climate warming ranging between 0.1° and 1.5°C. All models simulated a negative sensitivity for both the land and the ocean carbon cycle to future climate. However, there was still a large uncertainty on the magnitude of these sensitivities. Eight models attributed most of the changes to the land, while three attributed it to the ocean. Also, a majority of the models located the reduction of land carbon uptake in the Tropics. However, the attribution of the land sensitivity to changes in net primary productivity versus changes in respiration is still subject to debate; no consensus emerged among the models.
2,630 citations
••
Max Planck Society1, University of New Hampshire2, Centre national de la recherche scientifique3, Natural Resources Canada4, National Center for Atmospheric Research5, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research6, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation7, Colorado State University8, Carnegie Institution for Science9, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution10, Marine Biological Laboratory11, Australian National University12, Princeton University13, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research14
TL;DR: An overview of the current state of knowledge of global and regional patterns of carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems is provided, confirming that the terrestrial biosphere was largely neutral with respect to net carbon exchange during the 1980s, but became a net carbon sink in the 1990s.
Abstract: Knowledge of carbon exchange between the atmosphere, land and the oceans is important, given that the terrestrial and marine environments are currently absorbing about half of the carbon dioxide that is emitted by fossil-fuel combustion. This carbon uptake is therefore limiting the extent of atmospheric and climatic change, but its long-term nature remains uncertain. Here we provide an overview of the current state of knowledge of global and regional patterns of carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems. Atmospheric carbon dioxide and oxygen data confirm that the terrestrial biosphere was largely neutral with respect to net carbon exchange during the 1980s, but became a net carbon sink in the 1990s. This recent sink can be largely attributed to northern extratropical areas, and is roughly split between North America and Eurasia. Tropical land areas, however, were approximately in balance with respect to carbon exchange, implying a carbon sink that offset emissions due to tropical deforestation. The evolution of the terrestrial carbon sink is largely the result of changes in land use over time, such as regrowth on abandoned agricultural land and fire prevention, in addition to responses to environmental changes, such as longer growing seasons, and fertilization by carbon dioxide and nitrogen. Nevertheless, there remain considerable uncertainties as to the magnitude of the sink in different regions and the contribution of different processes.
1,291 citations
••
Colorado State University1, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation2, National Center for Atmospheric Research3, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration4, Massachusetts Institute of Technology5, Princeton University6, University of California, Berkeley7, Max Planck Society8, Meteorological Service of Canada9, Japan Meteorological Agency10, University of California, Irvine11, California Institute of Technology12, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology13, Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory14
TL;DR: An uptake of CO2 in the southern extratropical ocean less than that estimated from ocean measurements is found, a result that is not sensitive to transport models or methodological approaches, and carbon fluxes integrated over latitudinal zones are strongly constrained by observations in the middle to high latitudes.
Abstract: Information about regional carbon sources and sinks can be derived from variations in observed atmospheric CO2 concentrations via inverse modelling with atmospheric tracer transport models. A consensus has not yet been reached regarding the size and distribution of regional carbon fluxes obtained using this approach, partly owing to the use of several different atmospheric transport models. Here we report estimates of surface-atmosphere CO2 fluxes from an intercomparison of atmospheric CO2 inversion models (the TransCom 3 project), which includes 16 transport models and model variants. We find an uptake of CO2 in the southern extratropical ocean less than that estimated from ocean measurements, a result that is not sensitive to transport models or methodological approaches. We also find a northern land carbon sink that is distributed relatively evenly among the continents of the Northern Hemisphere, but these results show some sensitivity to transport differences among models, especially in how they respond to seasonal terrestrial exchange of CO2. Overall, carbon fluxes integrated over latitudinal zones are strongly constrained by observations in the middle to high latitudes. Further significant constraints to our understanding of regional carbon fluxes will therefore require improvements in transport models and expansion of the CO2 observation network within the tropics.
1,110 citations
••
California Institute of Technology1, Goddard Space Flight Center2, University of Bremen3, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research4, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution5, University of California, Berkeley6, Harvard University7, Haverford College8, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation9, Colorado State University10, Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory11, Goodrich Corporation12
TL;DR: The Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) as mentioned in this paper is the first global, space-based measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) with the precision, resolution and coverage needed to characterize CO 2 sources and sinks on regional scales.
539 citations
••
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used synthesis inversion to compare the uncertainties in regional sources calculated from a moderate-sized surface network and either global or oceanic coverage of column-integrated pseudodata.
Abstract: This paper aims to establish the required precision for column-integrated CO2 concentration data to be useful in constraining surface sources. We use the method of synthesis inversion and compare the uncertainties in regional sources calculated from a moderate-sized surface network and either global or oceanic coverage of column-integrated pseudodata. With a simple measure of total uncertainty, we require precision of monthly averaged column data better than 2.5 ppmv on a 8° × 10° footprint for comparable performance with the existing surface network. If coverage is only oceanic we require 1.5 ppmv precision. We recommend more detailed studies on the feasibility of obtaining such observations from current and future satellite instruments.
477 citations
Cited by
More filters
••
TL;DR: The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) will produce a state-of-the- art multimodel dataset designed to advance the authors' knowledge of climate variability and climate change.
Abstract: The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) will produce a state-of-the- art multimodel dataset designed to advance our knowledge of climate variability and climate change. Researchers worldwide are analyzing the model output and will produce results likely to underlie the forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Unprecedented in scale and attracting interest from all major climate modeling groups, CMIP5 includes “long term” simulations of twentieth-century climate and projections for the twenty-first century and beyond. Conventional atmosphere–ocean global climate models and Earth system models of intermediate complexity are for the first time being joined by more recently developed Earth system models under an experiment design that allows both types of models to be compared to observations on an equal footing. Besides the longterm experiments, CMIP5 calls for an entirely new suite of “near term” simulations focusing on recent decades...
12,384 citations
••
Harvard University1, University of Reims Champagne-Ardenne2, College of William & Mary3, Old Dominion University4, University of Lisbon5, University of Burgundy6, California Institute of Technology7, Centre national de la recherche scientifique8, Université catholique de Louvain9, University of York10, University College London11, National Institute of Standards and Technology12, University of Waterloo13, National Center for Atmospheric Research14, University of Cologne15, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology16, Langley Research Center17
TL;DR: The new HITRAN is greatly extended in terms of accuracy, spectral coverage, additional absorption phenomena, added line-shape formalisms, and validity, and molecules, isotopologues, and perturbing gases have been added that address the issues of atmospheres beyond the Earth.
Abstract: This paper describes the contents of the 2016 edition of the HITRAN molecular spectroscopic compilation. The new edition replaces the previous HITRAN edition of 2012 and its updates during the intervening years. The HITRAN molecular absorption compilation is composed of five major components: the traditional line-by-line spectroscopic parameters required for high-resolution radiative-transfer codes, infrared absorption cross-sections for molecules not yet amenable to representation in a line-by-line form, collision-induced absorption data, aerosol indices of refraction, and general tables such as partition sums that apply globally to the data. The new HITRAN is greatly extended in terms of accuracy, spectral coverage, additional absorption phenomena, added line-shape formalisms, and validity. Moreover, molecules, isotopologues, and perturbing gases have been added that address the issues of atmospheres beyond the Earth. Of considerable note, experimental IR cross-sections for almost 300 additional molecules important in different areas of atmospheric science have been added to the database. The compilation can be accessed through www.hitran.org. Most of the HITRAN data have now been cast into an underlying relational database structure that offers many advantages over the long-standing sequential text-based structure. The new structure empowers the user in many ways. It enables the incorporation of an extended set of fundamental parameters per transition, sophisticated line-shape formalisms, easy user-defined output formats, and very convenient searching, filtering, and plotting of data. A powerful application programming interface making use of structured query language (SQL) features for higher-level applications of HITRAN is also provided.
7,638 citations
••
Joint Global Change Research Institute1, National Center for Atmospheric Research2, Victoria University of Wellington3, Electric Power Research Institute4, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency5, Finnish Environment Institute6, National Institute for Environmental Studies7, Met Office8, Vienna University of Technology9, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis10, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration11, Stanford University12, Oak Ridge National Laboratory13
TL;DR: A new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community is described.
Abstract: Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.
5,670 citations
••
TL;DR: Interdisciplinary science that integrates knowledge of the many interacting climate services of forests with the impacts of global change is necessary to identify and understand as yet unexplored feedbacks in the Earth system and the potential of forests to mitigate climate change.
Abstract: The world's forests influence climate through physical, chemical, and biological processes that affect planetary energetics, the hydrologic cycle, and atmospheric composition. These complex and nonlinear forest-atmosphere interactions can dampen or amplify anthropogenic climate change. Tropical, temperate, and boreal reforestation and afforestation attenuate global warming through carbon sequestration. Biogeophysical feedbacks can enhance or diminish this negative climate forcing. Tropical forests mitigate warming through evaporative cooling, but the low albedo of boreal forests is a positive climate forcing. The evaporative effect of temperate forests is unclear. The net climate forcing from these and other processes is not known. Forests are under tremendous pressure from global change. Interdisciplinary science that integrates knowledge of the many interacting climate services of forests with the impacts of global change is necessary to identify and understand as yet unexplored feedbacks in the Earth system and the potential of forests to mitigate climate change.
4,541 citations