Philip Brohan

Bio: Philip Brohan is an academic researcher from Met Office. The author has contributed to research in topics: Climate change & Climate model. The author has an hindex of 19, co-authored 33 publications receiving 4877 citations. Previous affiliations of Philip Brohan include Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research.

Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850

Abstract: [1] The historical surface temperature data set HadCRUT provides a record of surface temperature trends and variability since 1850. A new version of this data set, HadCRUT3, has been produced, benefiting from recent improvements to the sea surface temperature data set which forms its marine component, and from improvements to the station records which provide the land data. A comprehensive set of uncertainty estimates has been derived to accompany the data: Estimates of measurement and sampling error, temperature bias effects, and the effect of limited observational coverage on large-scale averages have all been made. Since the mid twentieth century the uncertainties in global and hemispheric mean temperatures are small, and the temperature increase greatly exceeds its uncertainty. In earlier periods the uncertainties are larger, but the temperature increase over the twentieth century is still significantly larger than its uncertainty.

Improved analyses of changes and uncertainties in sea surface temperature measured in Situ since the mid-nineteenth century: The HadSST2 dataset

Abstract: A new flexible gridded dataset of sea surface temperature (SST) since 1850 is presented and its uncertainties are quantified. This analysis [the Second Hadley Centre Sea Surface Temperature dataset (HadSST2)] is based on data contained within the recently created International Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) database and so is superior in geographical coverage to previous datasets and has smaller uncertainties. Issues arising when analyzing a database of observations measured from very different platforms and drawn from many different countries with different measurement practices are introduced. Improved bias corrections are applied to the data to account for changes in measurement conditions through time. A detailed analysis of uncertainties in these corrections is included by exploring assumptions made in their construction and producing multiple versions using a Monte Carlo method. An assessment of total uncertainty in each gridded average is obtained by combining these bias-...

ICOADS Release 2.5: extensions and enhancements to the surface marine meteorological archive

Abstract: Release 2.5 of the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) is a major update (covering 1662–2007) of the world's most extensive surface marine meteorological data collection. Building on extensive national and international partnerships, many new and improved contributing datasets have been processed into a uniform format and combined with the previous Release 2.4. The new data range from early non-instrumental ship observations to measurements initiated in the twentieth century from buoys and other automated platform types. Improvements to existing data include replacing preliminary Global Telecommunication System (GTS) receipts with more reliable, delayed mode reports for post-1997 data, and in the processing and quality control (QC) of humidity observations. Over the entire period of record, spatial and temporal coverage has been enriched and data and metadata quality has been improved. Along with the observations, now updated monthly in near real time, Release 2.5 includes quality-controlled monthly summary products for 2° latitude × 2° longitude (since 1800) and 1° × 1° boxes (since 1960), together with multiple options for access to the data and products. The measured and estimated data in Release 2.5 are subject to many technical changes, multiple archive sources, and historical events throughout the more than three-century record. Some of these data characteristics are highlighted, including known unresolved errors and inhomogeneities, which may impact climate and other research applications. Anticipated future directions for ICOADS aim to continue adding scientific value to the observations, products, and metadata, as well as strengthen the cooperative enterprise through expanded linkages to international initiatives and organisations. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

ICOADS Release 3.0: a major update to the historical marine climate record

Abstract: We highlight improvements to the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) in the latest Release 3.0 (R3.0; covering 1662–2014). ICOADS is the most widely used freely available collection of surface marine observations, providing data for the construction of gridded analyses of sea surface temperature, estimates of air–sea interaction and other meteorological variables. ICOADS observations are assimilated into all major atmospheric, oceanic and coupled reanalyses, further widening its impact. R3.0 therefore includes changes designed to enable effective exchange of information describing data quality between ICOADS, reanalysis centres, data set developers, scientists and the public. These user-driven innovations include the assignment of a unique identifier (UID) to each marine report – to enable tracing of observations, linking with reports and improved data sharing. Other revisions and extensions of the ICOADS' International Maritime Meteorological Archive common data format incorporate new near-surface oceanographic data elements and cloud parameters. Many new input data sources have been assembled, and updates and improvements to existing data sources, or removal of erroneous data, made. Coupled with enhanced ‘preliminary’ monthly data and product extensions past 2014, R3.0 provides improved support of climate assessment and monitoring, reanalyses and near-real-time applications.

Revisiting radiosonde upper air temperatures from 1958 to 2002

Abstract: HadAT is a new analysis of the global upper air temperature record from 1958 to 2002 based upon radiosonde data alone. This analysis makes use of a greater number of stations than previous radiosonde analyses, combining a number of digital data sources. Neighbor buddy checks are applied to ensure that both spatial and temporal consistency are maintained. A framework of previously quality controlled stations is used to define the initial station network to minimize the effects of any pervasive biases in the raw data upon the adjustments. The analysis is subsequently expanded to consider all remaining available long-term records. The final data set consists of 676 radiosonde stations, with a bias toward continental Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Temperature anomaly time series are provided on 9 mandatory reporting pressure levels from 850 to 30 hPa. The effects of sampling and adjustment uncertainty are calculated at all scales from the station series to the global mean and from seasonal to multidecadal. These estimates are solely parametric uncertainty, given our methodological choices, and not structural uncertainty which relates to sensitivity to choice of approach. An initial analysis of HadAT does not fundamentally alter our understanding of long-term changes in upper air temperature changes.

Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Abstract: Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe

Updated high‐resolution grids of monthly climatic observations – the CRU TS3.10 Dataset

Abstract: This paper describes the construction of an updated gridded climate dataset (referred to as CRU TS3.10) from monthly observations at meteorological stations across the world's land areas. Station anomalies (from 1961 to 1990 means) were interpolated into 0.5° latitude/longitude grid cells covering the global land surface (excluding Antarctica), and combined with an existing climatology to obtain absolute monthly values. The dataset includes six mostly independent climate variables (mean temperature, diurnal temperature range, precipitation, wet-day frequency, vapour pressure and cloud cover). Maximum and minimum temperatures have been arithmetically derived from these. Secondary variables (frost day frequency and potential evapotranspiration) have been estimated from the six primary variables using well-known formulae. Time series for hemispheric averages and 20 large sub-continental scale regions were calculated (for mean, maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation totals) and compared to a number of similar gridded products. The new dataset compares very favourably, with the major deviations mostly in regions and/or time periods with sparser observational data. CRU TS3.10 includes diagnostics associated with each interpolated value that indicates the number of stations used in the interpolation, allowing determination of the reliability of values in an objective way. This gridded product will be publicly available, including the input station series (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/ and http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/data/cru/). © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society

Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models

Abstract: Historical records show increased aridity over many land areas since 1950. This study looks at observations and model projections from 1923 to 2010, to test the ability of models to predict future drought conditions. Models are able to capture the greenhouse-gas forcing and El Nino–Southern Oscillation mode for historical periods, which inspires confidence in their projections of drought.