In 1974 an article appeared in Science magazine with the dry-sounding title “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases” by a pair of psychologists who were not well known outside their discipline of decision theory. In it Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman introduced the world to Prospect Theory, which mapped out how humans actually behave when faced with decisions about gains and losses, in contrast to how economists assumed that people behave. Prospect Theory turned Economics on its head by demonstrating through a series of ingenious experiments that people are much more concerned with losses than they are with gains, and that framing a choice from one perspective or the other will result in decisions that are exactly the opposite of each other, even if the outcomes are monetarily the same. Prospect Theory led cognitive psychology in a new direction that began to uncover other human biases in thinking that are probably not learned but are part of our brain’s wiring.

Thinking fast and slow.

The concept of “wicked problems” has attracted increasing focus in policy research, but the implications for public organizations have received less attention. This article examines the main organizational and cognitive dimensions emerging from the research literature on wicked problems. We identify several recent approaches to addressing problem complexity and stakeholder divergence based on the literatures on systems thinking, collaboration and coordination, and the adaptive leadership roles of public leaders and managers. We raise some challenges for public management in some key functional areas of government—strategy making, organizational design, people management, and performance measurement. We argue that provisional solutions can be developed, despite the difficulties of reforming governance processes to address wicked problems more effectively.

Wicked Problems: Implications for Public Policy and Management

(1991). Soft Systems Methodology in Action. European Journal of Information Systems: Vol. 1, No. 3, pp. 215-216.

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1057%2Fejis.1991.37.pdf

Soft Systems Methodology in Action

The Covid-19 pandemic has raised significant challenges for the higher education community worldwide. A particular challenge has been the urgent and unexpected request for previously face-to-face university courses to be taught online. Online teaching and learning imply a certain pedagogical content knowledge (PCK), mainly related to designing and organising for better learning experiences and creating distinctive learning environments, with the help of digital technologies. With this article, we provide some expert insights into this online-learning-related PCK, with the goal of helping non-expert university teachers (i.e. those who have little experience with online learning) to navigate in these challenging times. Our findings point at the design of learning activities with certain characteristics, the combination of three types of presence (social, cognitive and facilitatory) and the need for adapting assessment to the new learning requirements. We end with a reflection on how responding to a crisis (as best we can) may precipitate enhanced teaching and learning practices in the postdigital era.

/pdf/online-university-teaching-during-and-after-the-covid-19-3h8e2qfq5p.pdf

Online University Teaching During and After the Covid-19 Crisis: Refocusing Teacher Presence and Learning Activity

by J. Biggs and C. Tang, Maidenhead, England,
Open University Press, 2007, 360 pp., £29.99, ISBN-13: 978-0-335-22126-4

Teaching for quality learning at university

This text is an introduction to complexity theory and its application to public services management. In a clear and comprehensible manner it: argues that the complexity of the public policy process limits the usefulness of the 'new public management' approach; challenges management techniques used in key areas of the public sector, such as performance management, staff development leadership, strategic management and the use of IT; and proposes alternative approaches that are based on a correct understanding of the disorder in the policy process. The difficult concepts of complexity theory are presented in an accessible manner that explains the central concepts in this new approach to social science. The relevance of emerging theories like knowledge management, emotional intelligence and risk management, are also explored. It is for public service managers and professional in all areas, MBA and postgraduate students in public service management and public policy, undergraduate students in applied social science, policy and politics.

Managing Complexity in the Public Services

What are the links between theory and practice in the area of online learning in higher education? What are the strengths and weaknesses of the online approach? How can online learning be used to enhance the student experience? 
This book provides the first critical evaluation of theory and practice in online learning and teaching in higher education It also provides a critique of online learning for all those working in a higher education setting It examines the online approach in the context of the internet age and global higher education, examining changes in distance learning as well as how online learning is affecting mainstream mass higher education Practical examples throughout the book allow the reader to: 
Understand quality issues with regard to online learning Design appropriate courses Create stimulating online learning environments Transform learning methods Adapt and develop strategies to enhance online teaching practice
Online Learning and Teaching in Higher Education is key reading for lecturers, managers and policy makers in the higher education sector

Online Learning and Teaching in Higher Education

Complexity theory offers a systems based evaluative approach that places importance on holistic evaluation. Systems are seen as relatively unstable, but with some time periods that are stable. The theory provides some important metaphors for evaluating policy systems. The focus on whole systems, rates of change, evolving interactions and attractor states can be argued to be a radical methodology. This article explores an evaluative method where quantitative time series methods can aid the qualitative understanding of complex systems. Rates of change are proposed as key measures. A research example is given that describes the evolution of the policy of privatization and market managerialism of social care services in England. When compared to other models of public policy evaluation like punctuated equilibrium theory, complexity places more emphasis on the overall instability of the policy environment.

Complexity theory and evaluation in public management: a qualitative systems approach

Personal control and responsibility are key themes in the therapeutic use of 'motivational interviewing'. This popular method of counselling has suggested that clients need to believe they have a significant degree of control over their behaviour if they are to make progress. Using a well validated psychological test on locus of control of behaviour, our research sought to establish whether active misusers really believed they had less personal control than non-misusers. To establish this a sample of misusers was tested and compared with three diverse, comparable groups. Possible confounding factors such as age, sex and class were controlled for. T tests established a significant difference between the active misusers and the other sampled groups. Further, a regression analysis of variance, calculated to explain the differing external scores offered no reasonable explanation as far as age, sex and class were concerned. Alternatively, self diagnosed substance misuse accounted for 23% of the variation in scores. We concluded, therefore, that high externality scores are a good indicator of active misusing behaviour and that beliefs about personal control are important to address, if one is to increase the chances of a positive client outcome.

Locus of control of behaviour: is high externality associated with substance misuse?

This research examined changes in the number of care homes and their residents in the UK between the 1991 and 2001 Censuses. Local-authority-owned provision universally declined in this period, but changes in private residential and nursing homes were far more varied. Some parts of Britain experienced a growth in this market, in particular Scotland. Regions which were traditionally linked with greater numbers of retired people in their populations declined in their private residential home markets (e.g. the South West and South East). Wales experienced a regional decline that was greater than most English regions. Using additional Department of Health data, it was possible to estimate which local authority areas in England were exporting state-funded supported residents to homes out of their area. Most of these authorities were in urban areas and the highest rates of exporting were from Inner London boroughs. Political control and average property prices were explored as possible independent variables influencing the percentage rate of decline in homes in a local authority area. It appeared that Conservative authorities experienced a more rapid decline in government-owned homes than those run by Labour, but the results were not statistically significant, suggesting that local politics was a not a key influence on the trend. Average property prices did not affect all areas of the country, but were found to have a negative and significant association with percentage rates of decline in care homes in both Wales and London.

Philip Haynes

Papers

Managing Complexity in the Public Services

Online Learning and Teaching in Higher Education

Complexity theory and evaluation in public management: a qualitative systems approach

Locus of control of behaviour: is high externality associated with substance misuse?

Public policy and private provisions: changes in residential care from 1991 to 2001