Philip Watts

Bio: Philip Watts is an academic researcher from California State University, Long Beach. The author has contributed to research in topics: Landslide & Submarine landslide. The author has an hindex of 28, co-authored 48 publications receiving 3482 citations. Previous affiliations of Philip Watts include United States Geological Survey & University of Rhode Island.

Landslide tsunami case studies using a Boussinesq model and a fully nonlinear tsunami generation model

Abstract: . Case studies of landslide tsunamis require integration of marine geology data and interpretations into numerical simulations of tsunami attack. Many landslide tsunami generation and propagation models have been proposed in recent time, further motivated by the 1998 Papua New Guinea event. However, few of these models have proven capable of integrating the best available marine geology data and interpretations into successful case studies that reproduce all available tsunami observations and records. We show that nonlinear and dispersive tsunami propagation models may be necessary for many landslide tsunami case studies. GEOWAVE is a comprehensive tsunami simulation model formed in part by combining the Tsunami Open and Progressive Initial Conditions System (TOPICS) with the fully non-linear Boussinesq water wave model FUNWAVE. TOPICS uses curve fits of numerical results from a fully nonlinear potential flow model to provide approximate landslide tsunami sources for tsunami propagation models, based on marine geology data and interpretations. In this work, we validate GEOWAVE with successful case studies of the 1946 Unimak, Alaska, the 1994 Skagway, Alaska, and the 1998 Papua New Guinea events. GEOWAVE simulates accurate runup and inundation at the same time, with no additional user interference or effort, using a slot technique. Wave breaking, if it occurs during shoaling or runup, is also accounted for with a dissipative breaking model acting on the wave front. The success of our case studies depends on the combination of accurate tsunami sources and an advanced tsunami propagation and inundation model.

Tsunami Generation by Submarine Mass Failure. I: Modeling, Experimental Validation, and Sensitivity Analyses

Abstract: Numerical simulations are performed with a two-dimensional (2D) fully nonlinear potential flow (FNPF) model for tsunami generation by two idealized types of submarine mass failure (SMF): underwater slides and slumps. These simulations feature rigid or deforming SMFs with a Gaussian cross section, translating down a plane slope. In each case, the SMF center of mass motion is expressed as a function of geometric, hydrodynamic, and material parameters, following a simple wavemaker formalism, and prescribed as a boundary condition in the FNPF model. Tsunami amplitudes and runup are obtained from computed free surface elevations. Model results are experimentally validated for a rigid 2D slide. Sensitivity studies are performed to estimate the effects of SMF-shape, type, and initial submergence depth—on the generated tsunamis. A strong SMF deformation during motion is shown to significantly enhance tsunami generation, particularly in the far-field. Typical slumps are shown to generate smaller tsunamis than corresponding slides. Both tsunami amplitude and runup are shown to depend strongly on initial SMF submergence depth. For the selected SMF idealized geometry, this dependence is simply expressed by power laws. Other sensitivity analyses are presented in a companion paper, and results from numerical simulations are converted into empirical curve fits predicting characteristic tsunami amplitudes as functions of nondimensional governing parameters. It should be stressed that these empirical formulas are only valid in the vicinity of the tsunami sources and, because of the complexity of the problem, many simplifications were necessary. It is further shown in the companion paper how 2D results can be modified to account for three-dimensional tsunami generation and used for quickly estimating tsunami hazard or for performing simple case studies.

The Papua New Guinea tsunami of 17 July 1998: anatomy of a catastrophic event

Abstract: . The Papua New Guinea (PNG) tsunami of July 1998 was a seminal event because it demonstrated that relatively small and relatively deepwater Submarine Mass Failures (SMFs) can cause devastating local tsunamis that strike without warning. There is a comprehensive data set that proves this event was caused by a submarine slump. Yet, the source of the tsunami has remained controversial. This controversy is attributed to several causes. Before the PNG event, it was questionable as to whether SMFs could cause devastating tsunamis. As a result, only limited modelling of SMFs as tsunami sources had been undertaken, and these excluded slumps. The results of these models were that SMFs in general were not considered to be a potential source of catastrophic tsunamis. To effectively model a SMF requires fairly detailed geological data, and these too had been lacking. In addition, qualitative data, such as evidence from survivors, tended to be disregarded in assessing alternative tsunami sources. The use of marine geological data to identify areas of recent submarine failure was not widely applied. The disastrous loss of life caused by the PNG tsunami resulted in a major investigation into the area offshore of the devastated coastline, with five marine expeditions taking place. This was the first time that a focussed, large-scale, international programme of marine surveying had taken place so soon after a major tsunami. It was also the first time that such a comprehensive data set became the basis for tsunami simulations. The use of marine mapping subsequently led to a larger involvement of marine geologists in the study of tsunamis, expanding the knowledge base of those studying the threat from SMF hazards. This paper provides an overview of the PNG tsunami and its impact on tsunami science. It presents revised interpretations of the slump architecture based on new seabed relief images and, using these, the most comprehensive tsunami simulation of the PNG event to date. Simulation results explain the measured runups to a high degree. The PNG tsunami has made a major impact on tsunami science. It is one of the most studied SMF tsunamis, yet it remains the only one known of its type: a slump.

Source constraints and model simulation of the December 26, 2004, Indian Ocean tsunami

Abstract: The December 26, 2004 tsunami was perhaps the most devastating tsunami in recorded history, causing over 200,000 fatalities and widespread destruction in countries bordering the Indian Ocean. It was generated by the third largest earthquake on record ( Mw =9.1–9.3) and was a truly global event, with significant wave action felt around the world. Many measurements of this event were made with seismometers, tide gauges, global positioning system stations, and a few satellite overpasses. There were numerous eyewitness observations and video digital recordings of coastal tsunami impact, as well as subsequent coastal field surveys of runup and flooding. A few ship-based expeditions also took place in the months following the event, to measure and map seafloor disturbances in the epicenter area. Based on these various data sets, recent seismic analysis estimates of rupture propagation speed, and other seismological and geological constraints, we develop a calibrated tsunami source, in terms of coseismic seafloo...

Linear and nonlinear waves, by G. B. Whitham. Pp.636. £50. 1999. ISBN 0 471 35942 4 (Wiley).

Abstract: to be done in this area. Face recognition is a problem that scarcely clamoured for attention before the computer age but, having surfaced, has involved a wide range of techniques and has attracted the attention of some fine minds (David Mumford was a Fields Medallist in 1974). This singular application of mathematical modelling to a messy applied problem of obvious utility and importance but with no unique solution is a pretty one to share with students: perhaps, returning to the source of our opening quotation, we may invert Duncan's earlier observation, 'There is an art to find the mind's construction in the face!'.

Submarine landslides: processes, triggers and hazard prediction

Abstract: Huge landslides, mobilizing hundreds to thousands of km3 of sediment and rock are ubiquitous in submarine settings ranging from the steepest volcanic island slopes to the gentlest muddy slopes of submarine deltas. Here, we summarize current knowledge of such landslides and the problems of assessing their hazard potential. The major hazards related to submarine landslides include destruction of seabed infrastructure, collapse of coastal areas into the sea and landslide-generated tsunamis. Most submarine slopes are inherently stable. Elevated pore pressures (leading to decreased frictional resistance to sliding) and specific weak layers within stratified sequences appear to be the key factors influencing landslide occurrence. Elevated pore pressures can result from normal depositional processes or from transient processes such as earthquake shaking; historical evidence suggests that the majority of large submarine landslides are triggered by earthquakes. Because of their tsunamigenic potential, ocean-island flank collapses and rockslides in fjords have been identified as the most dangerous of all landslide related hazards. Published models of ocean-island landslides mainly examine ‘worst-case scenarios’ that have a low probability of occurrence. Areas prone to submarine landsliding are relatively easy to identify, but we are still some way from being able to forecast individual events with precision. Monitoring of critical areas where landslides might be imminent and modelling landslide consequences so that appropriate mitigation strategies can be developed would appear to be areas where advances on current practice are possible.

Survey of 2011 Tohoku earthquake tsunami inundation and run‐up

Abstract: [1] At 14:46 local time on March 11, 2011, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake occurred off the coast of northeast Japan. This earthquake generated a tsunami that struck Japan as well as various locations around the Pacific Ocean. With the participation of researchers from throughout Japan, joint research groups conducted a tsunami survey along a 2000 km stretch of the Japanese coast. More than 5300 locations have been surveyed to date, generating the largest tsunami survey dataset in the world. On the Sendai Plain, the maximum inundation height was 19.5 m, and the tsunami bore propagated more than 5 km inland. Along the ria coast from about 50 to 200 km north of Sendai, the narrow bays focused the tsunami waves, generating the largest inundation heights and run-ups. The survey data clearly show a regional dependence of tsunami characteristics.