Piero Malguzzi

Bio: Piero Malguzzi is an academic researcher from National Research Council. The author has contributed to research in topics: Quantitative precipitation forecast & Rossby wave. The author has an hindex of 24, co-authored 70 publications receiving 2232 citations. Previous affiliations of Piero Malguzzi include Massachusetts Institute of Technology & University of Bologna.

The Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project Database

Abstract: Demands are growing rapidly in the operational prediction and applications communities for forecasts that fill the gap between medium-range weather and long-range or seasonal forecasts. Based on the potential for improved forecast skill at the subseasonal to seasonal time range, the Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction research project has been established by the World Weather Research Programme/World Climate Research Programme. A main deliverable of this project is the establishment of an extensive database containing subseasonal (up to 60 days) forecasts, 3 weeks behind real time, and reforecasts from 11 operational centers, modeled in part on the The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) database for medium-range forecasts (up to 15 days).The S2S database, available to the research community since May 2015, represents an important tool to advance our understanding of the subseasonal to seasonal time range that has been co...

Numerical Simulations of the 1994 Piedmont Flood: Role of Orography and Moist Processes

Abstract: The intense precipitation event that occurred between 3 and 6 November 1994 and caused extensive flooding over Piedmont in northwestern Italy is simulated and tested with respect to various physical aspects, using a meteorological mesoscale model (BOLAM). The period when the most intense rain occurred, mainly covering the second half of 4 and all of 5 November, is examined. A control experiment, starting at 1200 UTC 4 November, simulates the two observed precipitation peaks and captures the magnitude and timing of the most intense precipitation well even at relatively low horizontal resolution (about 30 km). The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses are used to provide the initial and boundary conditions. Model output diagnostics and comparison with observations indicate that most of the precipitation is associated with a prefrontal low-level jet, ahead of the cold front, impinging upon the orography of the region (Alps and Apennines). The model simulates a multiple rainband...

Validation of a limited area model in cases of mediterranean cyclogenesis: Surface fields and precipitation scores

Abstract: We have examined the performance of a limited-area mesoscale model of our design in cases of winter cyclones over the southern European-central Mediterranean area with particular ticular attention to standard precipitation statistical scores (bias, threat score, false alarms), obtaining results which compare favourably with other state-of-the-art LAM's documented in the literature. The model, which we briefly describe here, uses standard procedures and includes Geleyn's radiation package and Emanuel's moist convective adjustment scheme. We also discuss the model's performance from the viewpoint of individual surface fields, which display a variety of-mesoscale features correctly reproducing, in most cases, those of the observed fields. The latter have been re-analyzed for this purpose using conventional SYNOP data and ECMWF analyses as first guess.

Heavy rainfall episodes over Liguria in autumn 2011: numerical forecasting experiments

Abstract: . The Liguria coastal region in Italy was affected by two heavy rainfall episodes and subsequent severe flooding that occurred at the end of October and the beginning of November 2011. In both cases, the very large accumulated precipitation maxima were associated with intense and quasi-stationary convective systems that developed near the coast, both related to orographic lift and similar low-level mesoscale flow patterns over the Ligurian Sea, giving rise to pronounced convergence lines. This study aims at analysing the main dynamical processes responsible for the onset, lifecycle, intensity and localisation/propagation of the precipitating systems, using the ISAC convection-permitting model MOLOCH applied at different spatial resolutions and comparing model output fields with available observations. The ability of the model in quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) is tested with respect to initial conditions and model horizontal resolution. Although precipitation maxima remain underestimated in the model experiments, it is shown that errors in QPF in both amount and position tend to decrease with increasing grid resolution. It is shown that model accuracy in forecasting rainfall amounts and localisation of the precipitating systems critically depends on the ability to represent the cold air outflow from the Po Valley to the Ligurian Sea, which determines the position and intensity of the mesoscale convergence lines over the sea. Such convergence lines controls, together with the lifting produced by the Apennines chain surrounding the coast, the onset of the severe convection.

The 1966 ''century'' flood in Italy: A meteorological and hydrological revisitation

Abstract: [1] The widespread flood event that affected northeastern and central Italy in November 1966, causing severe damages to vast populated areas including the historical towns of Florence and Venice, is revisited with a modeling approach, made possible by the availability of the ECMWF global reanalysis (ERA-40). A simulated forecasting chain consisting of the ECMWF global model, forcing a cascade of two mesoscale, limited area meteorological models apt to reach a convective resolving scale (about 2 km), is used to predict quantitative precipitation. A hydrological model, nested in the finer-scale meteorological model, is used to reproduce forecasted flood hydrographs for different river basins of the investigated areas. Predicted precipitation is in general very sensitive to initial conditions, especially when associated with convective activity, such as over central Italy, in the Arno river basin. Orographically enhanced precipitation, e.g., the one predicted in the eastern Alps, is quite stable and in good agreement with observations. Hydrological forecasts, made separately in different river basins, reflect the accuracy of the simulated precipitation.

Development and Evaluation of a Convection Scheme for Use in Climate Models

Abstract: Cumulus convection is a key process in controlling the water vapor content of the atmosphere, which is in turn the largest feedback mechanism for climate change in global climate models. Yet scant attention has been paid to designing convective representations that attempt to handle water vapor with fidelity, and even less to evaluating their performance. Here the authors attempt to address this deficiency by designing a representation of cumulus convection with close attention paid to convective water fluxes and by subjecting the scheme to rigorous tests using sounding array data. The authors maintain that such tests, in which a single-column model is forced by large-scale processes measured by or inferred from the sounding data, must be carried out over a period at least as long as the radiative-subsidence timescale—about 30 days—governing the water vapor adjustment time. The authors also argue that the observed forcing must be preconditioned to guarantee integral enthalpy conservation, else er...

The AROME-France Convective-Scale Operational Model

Abstract: After six years of scientific, technical developments and meteorological validation, the Application of Research to Operations at Mesoscale (AROME-France) convective-scale model became operational at Meteo-France at the end of 2008. This paper presents the main characteristics of this new numerical weather prediction system: the nonhydrostatic dynamical model core, detailed moist physics, and the as- sociated three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-Var) scheme. Dynamics options settings and variables are explained. The physical parameterizations are depicted as well as their mutual interactions. The scale-specific features of the 3D-Var scheme are shown. The performance of the forecast model is evaluated using objective scores and case studies that highlight its benefits and weaknesses.

On the operational predictability of blocking

Abstract: The entire 7-year archive of ECMWF operational analysis and forecast data is used to assess the skill of the Centre's model in short- and medium-range forecasting of atmospheric blocking. The assessment covers 7100-day periods, from 1 December to 10 March of all winters from 1980-81 to 1986-87, inclusive. A slightly modified version of the Legenas and Okland objective zonal index is used to quantify both observed and forecast occurrence of blocking. The study is performed on 500 hPa geopotential height and on Euro-Atlantic and Pacific blocking separately. It is found that blocking frequency is severely underestimated in medium-range forecasts; the model is, on average, reasonably skilful if the initial conditions are blocked, but blocking onset is poorly represented if it occurs more than a few days into the forecast. This inability in entering the blocking regime has a substantial impact on the systematic error of the model. DOI: 10.1034/j.1600-0870.1990.t01-2-00003.x

The Interaction of Ocean Waves and Wind

Abstract: This book was published in 2004. The Interaction of Ocean Waves and Wind describes in detail the two-way interaction between wind and ocean waves and shows how ocean waves affect weather forecasting on timescales of 5 to 90 days. Winds generate ocean waves, but at the same time airflow is modified due to the loss of energy and momentum to the waves; thus, momentum loss from the atmosphere to the ocean depends on the state of the waves. This volume discusses ocean wave evolution according to the energy balance equation. An extensive overview of nonlinear transfer is given, and as a by-product the role of four-wave interactions in the generation of extreme events, such as freak waves, is discussed. Effects on ocean circulation are described. Coupled ocean-wave, atmosphere modelling gives improved weather and wave forecasts. This volume will interest ocean wave modellers, physicists and applied mathematicians, and engineers interested in shipping and coastal protection.