We analyze the effect of rising Chinese import competition between 1990 and 2007 on US local labor markets, exploiting cross-market variation in import exposure stemming from initial diffe...

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The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States

China's emergence as a great economic power has induced an epochal shift in patterns of world trade. Simultaneously, it has challenged much of the received empirical wisdom about how labor markets adjust to trade shocks. Alongside the heralded consumer benefits of expanded trade are substantial adjustment costs and distributional consequences. These impacts are most visible in the local labor markets in which the industries exposed to foreign competition are concentrated. Adjustment in local labor markets is remarkably slow, with wages and labor-force participation rates remaining depressed and unemployment rates remaining elevated for at least a full decade after the China trade shock commences. Exposed workers experience greater job churning and reduced lifetime income. At the national level, employment has fallen in the US industries more exposed to import competition, as expected, but offsetting employment gains in other industries have yet to materialize. Better understanding when and where trade is ...

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w21906/w21906.pdf

The China Shock: Learning from Labor-Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade

This paper analyzes the heterogenous reaction of exporters to exchange rate changes using a very rich French rm-level dataset with destination-specic export values and volumes on the period 19952005. We nd that high-performance rms react to a depreciation by increasing signicantly more their markup and by increasing less their export volume. This heterogeneity in pricing to market is robust to dierent measures of performance, samples and econometric specications. It is consistent with models where demand elasticity decreases with rm performance. Since aggregate exports are concentrated on high productivity rms, precisely those that absorb more exchange rate movements in

How do Different Exporters React to Exchange Rate Changes

Even before the Great Recession, US employment growth was unimpressive. Between 2000 and 2007, the economy gave back the considerable employment gains achieved during the 1990s, with a historic contraction in manufacturing employment being a prime contributor to the slump. We estimate that import competition from China, which surged after 2000, was a major force behind both recent reductions in US manufacturing employment and—through input-output linkages and other general equilibrium channels—weak overall US job growth. Our central estimates suggest job losses from rising Chinese import competition over 1999–2011 in the range of 2.0–2.4 million.

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w20395/w20395.pdf

Import competition and the great U.S. employment sag of the 2000s

Large exporters are simultaneously large importers. In this paper, we show that this pattern is key to understanding low aggregate exchange rate pass-through as well as the variation in pass-through across exporters. First, we develop a theoretical framework that combines variable markups due to strategic complementarities and endogenous choice to import intermediate inputs. The model predicts that fi rms with high import shares and high market shares have low exchange rate pass-through. Second, we test and quantify the theoretical mechanisms using Belgian fi rm-product-level data with information on exports by destination and imports by source country. We confi rm that import intensity and market share are the prime determinants of pass-through in the cross-section of fi rms. A small exporter with no imported inputs has a nearly complete pass-through of over 90 percent, while a fi rm at the 95th percentile of both import intensity and market share distributions has a pass-through of 56 percent, with the marginal cost and markup channels playing roughly equal roles. The largest exporters are simultaneously highmarket-share and high-import-intensity fi rms, which helps explain the low aggregate pass-through and exchange rate disconnect observed in the data.

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Importers, Exporters, and Exchange Rate Disconnect

This paper estimates a structural dynamic equilibrium model of the Brazilian labor market in order to study trade-induced transitional dynamics. The model features a multi-sector economy with overlapping generations, heterogeneous workers, endogenous accumulation of sector-specific experience, and costly switching of sectors. The model's estimates yield median costs of mobility ranging from 1.4 to 2.7 times annual average wages, but a high dispersion of these costs across the population. In addition, sector-specific experience is imperfectly transferable across sectors, leading to additional barriers to mobility. Using the estimated model for counterfactual trade liberalization experiments, the main findings are: (1) there is a large labor market response following trade liberalization but the transition may take several years; (2) potential aggregate welfare gains are significantly reduced due to the delayed adjustment; (3) trade-induced welfare effects depend on initial sector of employment and on worker demographics such as age and education. The experiments also highlight the sensitivity of the transitional dynamics with respect to assumptions regarding the mobility of capital.

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Trade Liberalization and Labor Market Dynamics

We study the evolution of trade liberalization's effects on Brazilian local labor markets. Regions facing larger tariff cuts experienced prolonged declines in formal sector employment and ...

/pdf/trade-liberalization-and-regional-dynamics-1zyhs1i688.pdf

Trade Liberalization and Regional Dynamics

This paper studies the effect of exchange rate shocks on export behavior of multi-product firms. We provide a theoretical framework illustrating how firms adjust their prices, quantities, product scope, and sales distribution across products in the event of exchange rate fluctuations. In response to a real exchange rate depreciation, firms increase markups for all products, but markup increases decline with firm-product-specific marginal costs of production. We find robust evidence for our theoretical predictions using Brazilian customs data containing destination-specific and product-specific export sales and quantities. The sample period covers the years 1997–2006, during which Brazil experienced a series of drastic currency fluctuations. (JEL F14, F31, F33, O19, O24)

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Multi-Product Firms and Exchange Rate Fluctuations †

Trade economists have long studied the effects of globalization on wage differences between workers with different levels of skill or education. 1 This literature has generally sought to link globalization to changes in the economy-wide skill premium. Attanasio, Goldberg, and Pavcnik (2004) and Gonzaga, Menezes Filho, and Terra (2006) are salient examples that investigate whether changes in sector-specific prices or tariffs, changes in skill composition within and across sectors, and movements in the skill premium are consistent with the predictions of workhorse trade models, such as the HeckscherOhlin model. However, there is little evidence directly establishing a causal effect of globalization on the skill premium. 2 More recently, a growing body of research has focused on trade’s differential effects across local markets within a country. 3 In this paper, we combine these two strands of literature by developing a theoretically consistent approach to studying the causal

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Trade Liberalization and the Skill Premium: A Local Labor Markets Approach †

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w23595/w23595.pdf

Rafael Dix-Carneiro

Papers

Trade Liberalization and Labor Market Dynamics

Trade Liberalization and Regional Dynamics

Multi-Product Firms and Exchange Rate Fluctuations †

Trade Liberalization and the Skill Premium: A Local Labor Markets Approach †

Margins of Labor Market Adjustment to Trade