Showing papers by "Ralph B. D'Agostino published in 2012"

The Prevention and Treatment of Missing Data in Clinical Trials

Abstract: Missing data in clinical trials can have a major effect on the validity of the inferences that can be drawn from the trial. This article reviews methods for preventing missing data and, failing that, dealing with data that are missing.

C-Reactive Protein, Fibrinogen, and Cardiovascular Disease Prediction

Abstract: Background There is debate about the value of assessing levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) and other biomarkers of inflammation for the prediction of first cardiovascular events. Methods We analyzed data from 52 prospective studies that included 246,669 participants without a history of cardiovascular disease to investigate the value of adding CRP or fibrinogen levels to conventional risk factors for the prediction of cardiovascular risk. We calculated measures of discrimination and reclassification during follow-up and modeled the clinical implications of initiation of statin therapy after the assessment of CRP or fibrinogen. Results The addition of information on high-density lipoprotein cholesterol to a prognostic model for cardiovascular disease that included age, sex, smoking status, blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol level increased the C-index, a measure of risk discrimination, by 0.0050. The further addition to this model of information on CRP or fibrinogen increased the C-index by 0.0039 and 0.0027, respectively (P = 20%) (P = 20% and for those with certain other risk factors, such as diabetes, irrespective of their 10-year predicted risk), additional targeted assessment of CRP or fibrinogen levels in the 13,199 remaining participants at intermediate risk could help prevent approximately 30 additional cardiovascular events over the course of 10 years. Conclusions In a study of people without known cardiovascular disease, we estimated that under current treatment guidelines, assessment of the CRP or fibrinogen level in people at intermediate risk for a cardiovascular event could help prevent one additional event over a period of 10 years for every 400 to 500 people screened. (Funded by the British Heart Foundation and others.)

Lipid-related markers and cardiovascular disease prediction.

Abstract: ContextThe value of assessing various emerging lipid-related markers for prediction of first cardiovascular events is debated.Objective To determine whether adding information on apolipoprotein B a ...

Interpreting Incremental Value of Markers Added to Risk Prediction Models

Abstract: The discrimination of a risk prediction model measures that model's ability to distinguish between subjects with and without events. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) is a popular measure of discrimination. However, the AUC has recently been criticized for its insensitivity in model comparisons in which the baseline model has performed well. Thus, 2 other measures have been proposed to capture improvement in discrimination for nested models: the integrated discrimination improvement and the continuous net reclassification improvement. In the present study, the authors use mathematical relations and numerical simulations to quantify the improvement in discrimination offered by candidate markers of different strengths as measured by their effect sizes. They demonstrate that the increase in the AUC depends on the strength of the baseline model, which is true to a lesser degree for the integrated discrimination improvement. On the other hand, the continuous net reclassification improvement depends only on the effect size of the candidate variable and its correlation with other predictors. These measures are illustrated using the Framingham model for incident atrial fibrillation. The authors conclude that the increase in the AUC, integrated discrimination improvement, and net reclassification improvement offer complementary information and thus recommend reporting all 3 alongside measures characterizing the performance of the final model.

Inclusion of Stroke in Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Instruments A Statement for Healthcare Professionals From the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association

Abstract: Background and Purpose—Current US guideline statements regarding primary and secondary cardiovascular risk prediction and prevention use absolute risk estimates to identify patients who are at high risk for vascular disease events and who may benefit from specific preventive interventions. These guidelines do not explicitly include patients with stroke, however. This statement provides an overview of evidence and arguments supporting (1) the inclusion of patients with stroke, and atherosclerotic stroke in particular, among those considered to be at high absolute risk of cardiovascular disease and (2) the inclusion of stroke as part of the outcome cluster in risk prediction instruments for vascular disease. Methods and Results—Writing group members were nominated by the committee co-chairs on the basis of their previous work in relevant topic areas and were approved by the American Heart Association (AHA) Stroke Council's Scientific Statements Oversight Committee and the AHA Manuscript Oversight Committee....

Novel metrics for evaluating improvement in discrimination: net reclassification and integrated discrimination improvement for normal variables and nested models.

Abstract: Net reclassification and integrated discrimination improvements have been proposed as alternatives to the increase in the AUC for evaluating improvement in the performance of risk assessment algorithms introduced by the addition of new phenotypic or genetic markers. In this paper, we demonstrate that in the setting of linear discriminant analysis, under the assumptions of multivariate normality, all three measures can be presented as functions of the squared Mahalanobis distance. This relationship affords an interpretation of the magnitude of these measures in the familiar language of effect size for uncorrelated variables. Furthermore, it allows us to conclude that net reclassification improvement can be viewed as a universal measure of effect size. Our theoretical developments are illustrated with an example based on the Framingham Heart Study risk assessment model for high risk men in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease.

Adult height and the risk of cause-specific death and vascular morbidity in 1 million people: individual participant meta-analysis

Abstract: Background The extent to which adult height, a biomarker of the interplay of genetic endowment and early-life experiences, is related to risk of chronic diseases in adulthood is uncertain. Methods We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for height, assessed in increments of 6.5 cm, using individual-participant data on 174 374 deaths or major non-fatal vascular outcomes recorded among 1 085 949 people in 121 prospective studies. Results For people born between 1900 and 1960, mean adult height increased 0.5-1 cm with each successive decade of birth. After adjustment for age, sex, smoking and year of birth, HRs per 6.5 cm greater height were 0.97 (95% confidence interval: 0.96-0.99) for death from any cause, 0.94 (0.93-0.96) for death from vascular causes, 1.04 (1.03-1.06) for death from cancer and 0.92 (0.90-0.94) for death from other causes. Height was negatively associated with death from coronary disease, stroke subtypes, heart failure, stomach and oral cancers, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, mental disorders, liver disease and external causes. In contrast, height was positively associated with death from ruptured aortic aneurysm, pulmonary embolism, melanoma and cancers of the pancreas, endocrine and nervous systems, ovary, breast, prostate, colorectum, blood and lung. HRs per 6.5 cm greater height ranged from 1.26 (1.12-1.42) for risk of melanoma death to 0.84 (0.80-0.89) for risk of death from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. HRs were not appreciably altered after further adjustment for adiposity, blood pressure, lipids, inflammation biomarkers, diabetes mellitus, alcohol consumption or socio-economic indicators. Conclusion Adult height has directionally opposing relationships with risk of death from several different major causes of chronic diseases.

Out-of-Hospital Administration of Intravenous Glucose-Insulin-Potassium in Patients With Suspected Acute Coronary Syndromes: The IMMEDIATE Randomized Controlled Trial

Abstract: Context Laboratory studies suggest that in the setting of cardiac ischemia, immediate intravenous glucose-insulin-potassium (GIK) reduces ischemia-related arrhythmias and myocardial injury. Clinical trials have not consistently shown these benefits, possibly due to delayed administration. Objective To test out-of hospital emergency medical service (EMS) administration of GIK in the first hours of suspected acute coronary syndromes (ACS). Design, Setting, and Participants Randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind effectiveness trial in 13 US cities (36 EMS agencies), from December 2006 through July 31, 2011, in which paramedics, aided by electrocardiograph (ECG)-based decision support, randomized 911 (871 enrolled) patients (mean age, 63.6 years; 71.0% men) with high probability of ACS. Intervention Intravenous GIK solution (n = 411) or identical-appearing 5% glucose placebo (n = 460) administered by paramedics in the out-of-hospital setting and continued for 12 hours. Main Outcome Measures The prespecified primary end point was progression of ACS to myocardial infarction (MI) within 24 hours, as assessed by biomarkers and ECG evidence. Prespecified secondary end points included survival at 30 days and a composite of prehospital or in-hospital cardiac arrest or in-hospital mortality, analyzed by intent-to-treat and by presentation with ST-segment elevation. Results There was no significant difference in the rate of progression to MI among patients who received GIK (n = 200; 48.7%) vs those who received placebo (n = 242; 52.6%) (odds ratio [OR], 0.88; 95% CI, 0.66-1.13; P = .28). Thirty-day mortality was 4.4% with GIK vs 6.1% with placebo (hazard ratio [HR], 0.72; 95% CI, 0.40-1.29; P = .27). The composite of cardiac arrest or in-hospital mortality occurred in 4.4% with GIK vs 8.7% with placebo (OR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.27-0.85; P = .01). Among patients with ST-segment elevation (163 with GIK and 194 with placebo), progression to MI was 85.3% with GIK vs 88.7% with placebo (OR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.40-1.38; P = .34); 30-day mortality was 4.9% with GIK vs 7.7% with placebo (HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.27-1.49; P = .29). The composite outcome of cardiac arrest or in-hospital mortality was 6.1% with GIK vs 14.4% with placebo (OR, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.18-0.82; P = .01). Serious adverse events occurred in 6.8% (n = 28) with GIK vs 8.9% (n = 41) with placebo (P = .26). Conclusions Among patients with suspected ACS, out-of-hospital administration of intravenous GIK, compared with glucose placebo, did not reduce progression to MI. Compared with placebo, GIK administration was not associated with improvement in 30-day survival but was associated with lower rates of the composite outcome of cardiac arrest or in-hospital mortality. Trial Registration clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00091507

Misuse of DeLong test to compare AUCs for nested models

Abstract: The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC of ROC) is a widely used measure of discrimination in risk prediction models. Routinely, the Mann-Whitney statistics is used as an estimator of AUC, while the change in AUC is tested by the DeLong test. However, very often, in settings where the model is developed and tested on the same dataset, the added predictor is statistically significantly associated with the outcome but fails to produce a significant improvement in the AUC. No conclusive resolution exists to explain this finding. In this paper, we will show that the reason lies in the inappropriate application of the DeLong test in the setting of nested models. Using numerical simulations and a theoretical argument based on generalized U-statistics, we show that if the added predictor is not statistically significantly associated with the outcome, the null distribution is non-normal, contrary to the assumption of DeLong test. Our simulations of different scenarios show that the loss of power because of such a misuse of the DeLong test leads to a conservative test for small and moderate effect sizes. This problem does not exist in cases of predictors that are associated with the outcome and for non-nested models. We suggest that for nested models, only the test of association be performed for the new predictors, and if the result is significant, change in AUC be estimated with an appropriate confidence interval, which can be based on the DeLong approach.

A Genetic Risk Score Is Associated With Incident Cardiovascular Disease and Coronary Artery Calcium The Framingham Heart Study

Abstract: Background—Limited data exist regarding the use of a genetic risk score (GRS) for predicting risk of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) in US-based samples Methods and Results—By using findings from recent genome-wide association studies, we constructed GRSs composed of 13 genetic variants associated with myocardial infarction or other manifestations of coronary heart disease (CHD) and 102 genetic variants associated with CHD or its major risk factors We also updated the 13 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) GRSs with 16 SNPs recently discovered by genome-wide association studies We estimated the association, discrimination, and risk reclassification of each GRS for incident cardiovascular events and prevalent coronary artery calcium (CAC) In analyses adjusted for age, sex, CVD risk factors, and parental history of CVD, the 13 SNP GRSs were significantly associated with incident hard CHD (hazard ratio, 107; 95% CI, 100–115; P004), CVD (hazard ratio per allele, 105; 95% CI, 101–109; P003), and high CAC (defined as 75 th age- and sex-specific percentile; odds ratio per allele, 118; 95% CI, 111–126; P3410 7 ) The GRS did not improve discrimination for incident CHD or CVD but led to modest improvements in risk reclassification However, significant improvements in discrimination and risk reclassification were observed for the prediction of high CAC The addition of 16 newly discovered SNPs to the 13 SNP GRSs did not significantly modify these results Conclusions—A GRS composed of 13 SNPs associated with coronary disease is an independent predictor of cardiovascular events and of high CAC, modestly improves risk reclassification for incident CHD, and significantly improves discrimination for high CAC The addition of recently discovered SNPs did not significantly improve the performance of this GRS (Circ Cardiovasc Genet 2012;5:113-121)

Neighborhood level risk factors for type 1 diabetes in youth: the SEARCH case-control study

Abstract: European ecologic studies suggest higher socioeconomic status is associated with higher incidence of type 1 diabetes. Using data from a case-control study of diabetes among racially/ethnically diverse youth in the United States (U.S.), we aimed to evaluate the independent impact of neighborhood characteristics on type 1 diabetes risk. Data were available for 507 youth with type 1 diabetes and 208 healthy controls aged 10-22 years recruited in South Carolina and Colorado in 2003-2006. Home addresses were used to identify Census tracts of residence. Neighborhood-level variables were obtained from 2000 U.S. Census. Multivariate generalized linear mixed models were applied. Controlling for individual risk factors (age, gender, race/ethnicity, infant feeding, birth weight, maternal age, number of household residents, parental education, income, state), higher neighborhood household income (p = 0.005), proportion of population in managerial jobs (p = 0.02), with at least high school education (p = 0.005), working outside the county (p = 0.04) and vehicle ownership (p = 0.03) were each independently associated with increased odds of type 1 diabetes. Conversely, higher percent minority population (p = 0.0003), income from social security (p = 0.002), proportion of crowded households (0.0497) and poverty (p = 0.008) were associated with a decreased odds. Our study suggests that neighborhood characteristics related to greater affluence, occupation, and education are associated with higher type 1 diabetes risk. Further research is needed to understand mechanisms underlying the influence of neighborhood context.

Discriminating clinical features of heart failure with preserved vs. reduced ejection fraction in the community.

Abstract: Aims Heart failure (HF) is a major public health burden worldwide. Of patients presenting with HF, 30–55% have a preserved ejection fraction (HFPEF) rather than a reduced ejection fraction (HFREF). Our objective was to examine discriminating clinical features in new-onset HFPEF vs. HFREF. Methods and results Of 712 participants in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) hospitalized for new-onset HF between 1981 and 2008 (median age 81 years, 53% female), 46% had HFPEF (EF >45%) and 54% had HFREF (EF ≤45%). In multivariable logistic regression, coronary heart disease (CHD), higher heart rate, higher potassium, left bundle branch block, and ischaemic electrocardiographic changes increased the odds of HFREF; female sex and atrial fibrillation increased the odds of HFPEF. In aggregate, these clinical features predicted HF subtype with good discrimination ( c- statistic 0.78). Predictors were examined in the Enhanced Feedback for Effective Cardiac Treatment (EFFECT) study. Of 4436 HF patients (median age 75 years, 47% female), 32% had HFPEF and 68% had HFREF. Distinguishing clinical features were consistent between FHS and EFFECT, with comparable discrimination in EFFECT ( c- statistic 0.75). In exploratory analyses examining the traits of the intermediate EF group (EF 35–55%), CHD predisposed to a decrease in EF, whereas other clinical traits showed an overlapping spectrum between HFPEF and HFREF. Conclusion Multiple clinical characteristics at the time of initial HF presentation differed in participants with HFPEF vs. HFREF. While CHD was clearly associated with a lower EF, overlapping characteristics were observed in the middle of the left ventricular EF range spectrum.

Lipid-Related Markers and Cardiovascular Disease Prediction

Abstract: CONTEXT The value of assessing various emerging lipid-related markers for prediction of first cardiovascular events is debated. OBJECTIVE To determine whether adding information on apolipoprotein B and apolipoprotein A-I, lipoprotein(a), or lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 to total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) improves cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Individual records were available for 165,544 participants without baseline CVD in 37 prospective cohorts (calendar years of recruitment: 1968-2007) with up to 15,126 incident fatal or nonfatal CVD outcomes (10,132 CHD and 4994 stroke outcomes) during a median follow-up of 10.4 years (interquartile range, 7.6-14 years). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Discrimination of CVD outcomes and reclassification of participants across predicted 10-year risk categories of low (<10%), intermediate (10%-<20%), and high (≥20%) risk. RESULTS The addition of information on various lipid-related markers to total cholesterol, HDL-C, and other conventional risk factors yielded improvement in the model's discrimination: C-index change, 0.0006 (95% CI, 0.0002-0.0009) for the combination of apolipoprotein B and A-I; 0.0016 (95% CI, 0.0009-0.0023) for lipoprotein(a); and 0.0018 (95% CI, 0.0010-0.0026) for lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 mass. Net reclassification improvements were less than 1% with the addition of each of these markers to risk scores containing conventional risk factors. We estimated that for 100,000 adults aged 40 years or older, 15,436 would be initially classified at intermediate risk using conventional risk factors alone. Additional testing with a combination of apolipoprotein B and A-I would reclassify 1.1%; lipoprotein(a), 4.1%; and lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 mass, 2.7% of people to a 20% or higher predicted CVD risk category and, therefore, in need of statin treatment under Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines. CONCLUSION In a study of individuals without known CVD, the addition of information on the combination of apolipoprotein B and A-I, lipoprotein(a), or lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 mass to risk scores containing total cholesterol and HDL-C led to slight improvement in CVD prediction.

Quantifying discrimination of Framingham risk functions with different survival C statistics

Abstract: Cardiovascular risk prediction functions offer an important diagnostic tool for clinicians and patients themselves. They are usually constructed with the use of parametric or semi-parametric survival regression models. It is essential to be able to evaluate the performance of these models, preferably with summaries that offer natural and intuitive interpretations. The concept of discrimination, popular in the logistic regression context, has been extended to survival analysis. However, the extension is not unique. In this paper, we define discrimination in survival analysis as the model's ability to separate those with longer event-free survival from those with shorter event-free survival within some time horizon of interest. This definition remains consistent with that used in logistic regression, in the sense that it assesses how well the model-based predictions match the observed data. Practical and conceptual examples and numerical simulations are employed to examine four C statistics proposed in the literature to evaluate the performance of survival models. We observe that they differ in the numerical values and aspects of discrimination that they capture. We conclude that the index proposed by Harrell is the most appropriate to capture discrimination described by the above definition. We suggest researchers report which C statistic they are using, provide a rationale for their selection, and be aware that comparing different indices across studies may not be meaningful.

Diabetic retinopathy in the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Cohort: a pilot study.

Abstract: Diabet. Med. 29, 1148–1152 (2012) Abstract Aims The aim of this pilot study was to generate an initial estimate of the prevalence and correlates of diabetic retinopathy in a racially and ethnically diverse sample of youth with Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes mellitus. Methods A pilot study was conducted among 222 individuals with Type 1 diabetes (79% non-Hispanic white, 21% other) and 43 with Type 2 diabetes (28% non-Hispanic white, 72% other), all of > 5 years duration (mean duration 6.8 years) who participated in the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study. Diabetic retinopathy was assessed using non-mydriatic retinal photography of both eyes. Results The prevalence of diabetic retinopathy was 17% for Type 1 diabetes and 42% for Type 2 diabetes (odds ratio 1.50, 95% CI 0.58–3.88; P = 0.40 adjusted for age, duration, gender, race/ethnicity, parental education and HbA1c. HbA1c was significantly higher among those with any diabetic retinopathy (adjusted mean 79 mmol/mol, 9.4%) vs. no diabetic retinopathy (adjusted mean 70 mmol/mol, 8.6%) (P = 0.015). LDL cholesterol was also significantly higher among those with any diabetic retinopathy (adjusted mean 107.2 mg/dl) compared with those without diabetic retinopathy (adjusted mean 97.9 mg/dl) (P = 0.04). Conclusions The prevalence of diabetic retinopathy in contemporary young individuals was substantial, particularly among minority youth and those with Type 2 diabetes. Further long-term study of diabetic retinopathy in youth is needed.

Clinical evolution of beta cell function in youth with diabetes: the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study.

Abstract: Aims/hypothesis Few studies have explored the epidemiology of beta cell loss in youth with diabetes. This report describes the evolution and major determinants of beta cell function, assessed by fasting C-peptide (FCP), in the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study.

Cardiovascular risk estimation in 2012: lessons learned and applicability to the HIV population

Abstract: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment tools such as the Framingham Risk Functions, often called Framingham Risk Scores, are common in the evaluation of the CVD risk among individuals in the general population. These functions are multivariate risk algorithms that combine data on CVD risk factors, such as sex, age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol level, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level, smoking behavior, and diabetes status, to produce an estimate (or risk) of developing CVD or a component of it (such as coronary heart disease, stroke, peripheral vascular disease, and heart failure) over a fixed period (eg, the next 10 years). These estimates of CVD risk are often major inputs in recommending drug treatments, such as agents to reduce cholesterol level. The Framingham Risk Functions are valid in diverse populations, at times requiring a calibration adjustment for proper applicability. With the realization that individuals with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection often have elevated CVD risk factors, the evaluation of CVD risk for these individuals becomes a serious concern. Researchers have recently developed new CVD risk functions specifically for HIV-infected patients and have also examined the extension of existing Framingham Risk Functions to the HIV-infected population. This article first reviews briefly the Framingham Study and risk functions, covering their objectives, their components, evaluation of their performance, and transportability and validity on non-Framingham populations. It then reviews the development of CVD risk functions for HIV-infected individuals and comments on the usefulness of extending the Framingham risk equation to the HIV-infected population and the need to develop more-specific risk prediction equations uniquely tailored to this population.

Nicotinamide phosphoribosyl transferase (Nampt) is required for de novo lipogenesis in tumor cells.

Abstract: Tumor cells have increased metabolic requirements to maintain rapid growth. In particular, a highly lipogenic phenotype is a hallmark of many tumor types, including prostate. Cancer cells also have increased turnover of nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD+), a coenzyme involved in multiple metabolic pathways. However, a specific role for NAD+ in tumor cell lipogenesis has yet to be described. Our studies demonstrate a novel role for the NAD+-biosynthetic enzyme Nicotinamide phosphoribosyltransferase (Nampt) in maintaining de novo lipogenesis in prostate cancer (PCa) cells. Inhibition of Nampt reduces fatty acid and phospholipid synthesis. In particular, short chain saturated fatty acids and the phosphatidylcholine (PC) lipids into which these fatty acids are incorporated were specifically reduced by Nampt inhibition. Nampt blockade resulted in reduced ATP levels and concomitant activation of AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK) and phosphorylation of acetyl-CoA carboxylase (ACC). In spite of this, pharmacological inhibition of AMPK was not sufficient to fully restore fatty acid synthesis. Rather, Nampt blockade also induced protein hyperacetylation in PC-3, DU145, and LNCaP cells, which correlated with the observed decreases in lipid synthesis. Moreover, the sirtuin inhibitor Sirtinol, and the simultaneous knockdown of SIRT1 and SIRT3, phenocopied the effects of Nampt inhibition on fatty acid synthesis. Altogether, these data reveal a novel role for Nampt in the regulation of de novo lipogenesis through the modulation of sirtuin activity in PCa cells.

Phase II study of Ginkgo biloba in irradiated brain tumor patients: effect on cognitive function, quality of life, and mood

Abstract: Ginkgo biloba has been reported to improve cognitive function in older adults and patients with Alzheimer’s disease and multi-infarct dementia. We conducted an open-label phase II study of this botanical product in symptomatic irradiated brain tumor survivors. Eligibility criteria included: life expectancy ≥30 weeks, partial or whole brain radiation ≥6 months before enrollment, no imaging evidence of tumor progression in previous 3 months, or stable or decreasing steroid dose, and no brain tumor treatment planned while on study. The Ginkgo biloba dose was 120 mg/day (40 mg t.i.d.) for 24 weeks followed by a 6-week washout period. Assessments performed at baseline, 12, 24 (end of treatment), and 30 weeks (end of washout) included KPS, Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Brain (FACT-Br), Profile of Mood States, Mini-Mental Status Exam, Trail Making Test Parts A (TMT-A) and B (TMT-B), Digit Span Test, Modified Rey Osterrieth Complex Figure (ROCF), California Verbal Learning Test Part II, and the F-A-S Test. Results: Of the 34 patients enrolled on study, 23 (68 %) completed 12 weeks of treatment and 19 (56 %) completed 24 weeks of treatment. There were significant improvements at 24 weeks in: executive function (TMT-B) (p = 0.007), attention/concentration (TMT-A) (p = 0.002), and non-verbal memory (ROCF—immediate/delayed recall) (p = 0.001/0.002), mood (p = 0.002), FACT-Br subscale (p = 0.001), and the FACT physical subscale (p = 0.003). Conclusions: Some improvement in quality of life and cognitive function were noted with Ginkgo biloba. However, treatment with Ginkgo biloba was associated with a high dropout rate.

Increase in circulating levels of IGF-1 and IGF-1/IGFBP-3 molar ratio over a decade is associated with colorectal adenomatous polyps.

Abstract: High levels of circulating insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) have been associated with increased risk of several cancers. Regarding colorectal cancer, these associations are generally weak. We hypothesized that an increase in IGF-1 over time would be a stronger risk factor for cancer-related outcomes than the actual levels. In this analysis we utilized existing data from the Insulin Resistance and Atherosclerosis Study (IRAS). Circulating IGF-1 levels and molar ratios of IGF-1 to IGF binding protein 3 (IGFBP-3) were measured at three time points, within a 10-year follow-up period. We examined the associations of increase of the two variables with the presence of colorectal adenoma at the end of follow-up among participants with normal glucose tolerance at baseline. This included 143 individuals, from which 24 were diagnosed with adenomatous polyps. Although the mean levels of IGF-1 and IGF-1/IGFBP-3 decline with age, approximately 30% of the participants showed an increase of at least fifteen percent (“ever increase”) in one or both of these variables, compared to baseline. We found a positive association between “ever increase” in IGF-1 o r IGF-1/IGFBP-3 and the presence of colorectal adenoma: ORs were 3.81 (95% CI: 1.30-10.8) and 2.83 (95% CI: 1.00-8.22), respectively. No association was found when analyzing the actual levels of both variables at any time point. Our data suggest that an increase in circulating IGF-1 or IGF-1/IGFBP-3 may represent a disturbed GH/IGF1 homeostasis, which could favor the development of precancerous lesions, such as colorectal adenoma.

Urinary F2-Isoprostanes as a Biomarker of Reduced Risk of Type 2 Diabetes

Abstract: OBJECTIVE We have previously reported evidence of an inverse association between a urinary F2-isoprostane and type 2 diabetes risk in a pilot case-control study nested within the Insulin Resistance Atherosclerosis Study (IRAS). Here, we report the results from the study extended to the entire IRAS cohort. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS This prospective study included 138 incident type 2 diabetes case and 714 noncase subjects. Four F2-isoprostanes (iPF2α-III; 2,3-dinor-iPF2α-III; iPF2α-VI; and 8,12-iso-iPF2α-VI) were assayed in baseline urine samples using liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. RESULTS Three F2-isoprostanes showed significant inverse associations with type 2 diabetes risk: the adjusted odds ratios were 0.52 (95% CI 0.39–0.67), 0.56 (0.42–0.73), 0.62 (0.48–0.79), and 0.91 (0.72–1.12) for iPF2α-III; 2,3-dinor-iPF2α-III; iPF2α-VI; and 8,12-iso-iPF2α-VI, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Our findings indicate that urinary F2-isoprostanes are inversely associated with type 2 diabetes risk beyond the traditional risk factors and may be useful in identifying high-risk populations.

Urinary F2-isoprostanes, obesity, and weight gain in the IRAS cohort.

Abstract: Obesity has been associated with increased F 2 -isoprostane (F 2 -IsoP) levels cross-sectionally. However, the prospective association may be inverse, based on our earlier finding that elevated urinary F 2 -IsoP levels predict lower risk of diabetes. This earlier finding led us to hypothesize that urinary F 2 -IsoPs reflect the intensity of oxidative metabolism and as such predict lower risk of both diabetes and weight gain. We examined cross-sectional relationships with obesity and prospective relationships with weight gain using the data from 299 participants of the Insulin Resistance Atherosclerosis Study (IRAS), all of whom were free of diabetes at baseline. Four urinary F 2 IsoPs were assayed in stored baseline urine samples using liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry: iPF(2α)-III, 2,3-dinor-iPF(2α)-III, iPF(2α)-VI, and 8,12-iso-iPF(2α)-VI (F 2 -IsoP 1–4, respectively). Baseline F 2 -IsoPs were positively associated with baseline measures of obesity; the strongest associations were found with two F 2 -IsoPs: odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for overall and abdominal obesity were 1.74 (1.26–2.40) and 1.63 (1.18–2.24) for F 2 -IsoP2 and 1.47 (1.12–1.94) and 1.64 (1.22–2.20) for F 2 -IsoP4. F 2 -IsoP2 showed the strongest and significant inverse association with weight gain during the 5-year follow-up period: increase in F 2 -IsoP2 equal to 1 s.d. was associated with 0.90 kg lower weight gain (P = 0.02) and the odds ratios for relative (≥5%) and absolute (≥5 kg) weight gain were 0.67 (0.47–0.96) and 0.57 (0.37–0.87), respectively. The other three F 2 -IsoPs were consistently inversely associated with weight gain, although not significantly, suggesting that different F 2 -IsoPs vary in their ability to detect the association with weight gain.

Dietary Patterns of Women Are Associated with Incident Abdominal Obesity but Not Metabolic Syndrome

Abstract: Data on the relationship between empirical dietary patterns and metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its components in prospective study designs are limited. In addition, demographic and lifestyle determinants of MetS may modify the association between dietary patterns and the syndrome. We prospectively examined the relationship between empirically derived patterns and MetS and MetS components among 1146 women in the Framingham Offspring/Spouse cohort. They were aged 25–77 y with BMI ≥18.5 kg/m2 and free of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer, and MetS at baseline, and followed for a mean of 7 y. Five dietary patterns, Heart Healthier, Lighter Eating, Wine and Moderate Eating, Higher Fat, and Empty Calorie, were previously identified using cluster analysis from food intake collected using a FFQ. After adjusting for potential confounders, we observed lower odds for abdominal obesity for Higher Fat [OR = 0.48 (95% CI: 0.25, 0.91)] and Wine and Moderate Eating clusters [OR = 0.28 (95% CI: 0.11, 0.72)] compared with the Empty Calorie cluster. Additional adjustment for BMI somewhat attenuated these OR [Higher Fat OR = 0.52 (95% CI: 0.27, 1.00); Wine and Moderate Eating OR = 0.34 (95% CI: 0.13, 0.89)]. None of the clusters was associated with MetS or other MetS components. Baseline smoking status and age did not modify the relation between dietary patterns and MetS. The Higher Fat and Wine and Moderate Eating patterns showed an inverse association with abdominal obesity; certain foods might be targeted in these habitual patterns to achieve optimal dietary patterns for MetS prevention.