Raphael Goldacre

Bio: Raphael Goldacre is an academic researcher from University of Oxford. The author has contributed to research in topics: Population & Cohort study. The author has an hindex of 9, co-authored 21 publications receiving 543 citations. Previous affiliations of Raphael Goldacre include National Institute for Health Research & Clinical Trial Service Unit.

COVID-19 pandemic and admission rates for and management of acute coronary syndromes in England

Abstract: BACKGROUND: Several countries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic have reported a substantial drop in the number of patients attending the emergency department with acute coronary syndromes and a reduced number of cardiac procedures. We aimed to understand the scale, nature, and duration of changes to admissions for different types of acute coronary syndrome in England and to evaluate whether in-hospital management of patients has been affected as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We analysed data on hospital admissions in England for types of acute coronary syndrome from Jan 1, 2019, to May 24, 2020, that were recorded in the Secondary Uses Service Admitted Patient Care database. Admissions were classified as ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), non-STEMI (NSTEMI), myocardial infarction of unknown type, or other acute coronary syndromes (including unstable angina). We identified revascularisation procedures undertaken during these admissions (ie, coronary angiography without percutaneous coronary intervention [PCI], PCI, and coronary artery bypass graft surgery). We calculated the numbers of weekly admissions and procedures undertaken; percentage reductions in weekly admissions and across subgroups were also calculated, with 95% CIs. FINDINGS: Hospital admissions for acute coronary syndrome declined from mid-February, 2020, falling from a 2019 baseline rate of 3017 admissions per week to 1813 per week by the end of March, 2020, a reduction of 40% (95% CI 37-43). This decline was partly reversed during April and May, 2020, such that by the last week of May, 2020, there were 2522 admissions, representing a 16% (95% CI 13-20) reduction from baseline. During the period of declining admissions, there were reductions in the numbers of admissions for all types of acute coronary syndrome, including both STEMI and NSTEMI, but relative and absolute reductions were larger for NSTEMI, with 1267 admissions per week in 2019 and 733 per week by the end of March, 2020, a percent reduction of 42% (95% CI 38-46). In parallel, reductions were recorded in the number of PCI procedures for patients with both STEMI (438 PCI procedures per week in 2019 vs 346 by the end of March, 2020; percent reduction 21%, 95% CI 12-29) and NSTEMI (383 PCI procedures per week in 2019 vs 240 by the end of March, 2020; percent reduction 37%, 29-45). The median length of stay among patients with acute coronary syndrome fell from 4 days (IQR 2-9) in 2019 to 3 days (1-5) by the end of March, 2020. INTERPRETATION: Compared with the weekly average in 2019, there was a substantial reduction in the weekly numbers of patients with acute coronary syndrome who were admitted to hospital in England by the end of March, 2020, which had been partly reversed by the end of May, 2020. The reduced number of admissions during this period is likely to have resulted in increases in out-of-hospital deaths and long-term complications of myocardial infarction and missed opportunities to offer secondary prevention treatment for patients with coronary heart disease. The full extent of the effect of COVID-19 on the management of patients with acute coronary syndrome will continue to be assessed by updating these analyses. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Public Health England, Health Data Research UK, and the National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre.

Hospital admissions for viral meningitis in children in England over five decades: a population-based observational study

Abstract: Summary Background A substantial reduction in bacterial meningitis has occurred in the UK following successful implementation of immunisation programmes. Most childhood meningitis in developed countries is now caused by viruses. Long-term trends in paediatric viral meningitis in England have not previously been reported. The objective of this study is to report on epidemiological trends over time in childhood viral meningitis in England. Methods In this population-based observational study, we used routinely collected hospital discharge records from English National Health Service hospitals from 1968–2011 to analyse annual age-specific admission rates for viral meningitis, including specific viral aetiologies, in children younger than 15 years. Findings We analysed hospital discharge records from Jan 1, 1968, to Dec 31, 2011. Hospital admission rates for viral meningitis from Jan 1, 1968, to Dec 31, 1985, varied annually, with a mean of 13·5 admissions per 100 000 children aged less than 15 years, per year (95% CI 13·0–14·0). Admission rates declined during the late 1980s, and the mean number of admissions from 1989–2011 was 5·2 per 100 000 per year (5·1–5·3). This decrease was entirely in children aged 1–14 years. Admission rates for infants aged less than 1 year increased since 2005, to 70·0 per 100 000 (63·7–76·2) in 2011, which was driven by an increase in admission of infants aged 90 days or less. In 1968–85, the majority of cases in children were in those aged 1–14 years (22 150 [89%] of 24 920 admissions). In 2007–11, 1716 (72%) of 2382 cases were in infants. Admissions for mumps-related meningitis almost disappeared following introduction of the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine in 1988. Admissions with a specified viral aetiology have increased since 2000. Interpretation Trends in viral meningitis admissions have changed substantially over the past 50 years, and probably reflect the impact of the MMR vaccine programme and the use of more sensitive diagnostic techniques. Funding None.

Associations between bullous pemphigoid and primary malignant cancers: an English national record linkage study, 1999–2011

Abstract: We conducted a nationwide record-linked study using all English NHS hospital admission data and mortality statistics from 1999 to 2011 to evaluate the risk of concurrent or subsequent bullous pemphigoid (BP) in a cohort of 2,873,720 individuals with malignant cancers, when compared with a reference cohort. We calculated standardised rate ratios (RRs) based on person-years at risk, comparing the observed and expected numbers of BP cases in the cancer cohort with those in the reference cohort. Overall, the cohort of people with a record of a malignant cancer was not found to be at greater risk of concurrent or subsequent BP than the cohort of people without a record of a malignant cancer (RR 0.96, 95 % CI 0.88–1.04), although elevated risks of BP were found in sub-cohorts of people with either kidney cancer, laryngeal cancer or lymphoid leukaemia. We also similarly analysed the risk of concurrent and subsequent malignant cancers in a cohort of people with a principal diagnosis of BP, and again found no increased risk as compared with the reference cohort (RR 1.00, 95 % CI 0.92–1.09).

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on utilisation of healthcare services: a systematic review.

Abstract: Objectives To determine the extent and nature of changes in utilisation of healthcare services during COVID-19 pandemic. Design Systematic review. Eligibility Eligible studies compared utilisation of services during COVID-19 pandemic to at least one comparable period in prior years. Services included visits, admissions, diagnostics and therapeutics. Studies were excluded if from single centres or studied only patients with COVID-19. Data sources PubMed, Embase, Cochrane COVID-19 Study Register and preprints were searched, without language restrictions, until 10 August, using detailed searches with key concepts including COVID-19, health services and impact. Data analysis Risk of bias was assessed by adapting the Risk of Bias in Non-randomised Studies of Interventions tool, and a Cochrane Effective Practice and Organization of Care tool. Results were analysed using descriptive statistics, graphical figures and narrative synthesis. Outcome measures Primary outcome was change in service utilisation between prepandemic and pandemic periods. Secondary outcome was the change in proportions of users of healthcare services with milder or more severe illness (eg, triage scores). Results 3097 unique references were identified, and 81 studies across 20 countries included, reporting on >11 million services prepandemic and 6.9 million during pandemic. For the primary outcome, there were 143 estimates of changes, with a median 37% reduction in services overall (IQR −51% to −20%), comprising median reductions for visits of 42% (−53% to −32%), admissions 28% (−40% to −17%), diagnostics 31% (−53% to −24%) and for therapeutics 30% (−57% to −19%). Among 35 studies reporting secondary outcomes, there were 60 estimates, with 27 (45%) reporting larger reductions in utilisation among people with a milder spectrum of illness, and 33 (55%) reporting no difference. Conclusions Healthcare utilisation decreased by about a third during the pandemic, with considerable variation, and with greater reductions among people with less severe illness. While addressing unmet need remains a priority, studies of health impacts of reductions may help health systems reduce unnecessary care in the postpandemic recovery. PROSPERO registration number CRD42020203729.

Excess deaths associated with covid-19 pandemic in 2020: age and sex disaggregated time series analysis in 29 high income countries.

Abstract: Objective To estimate the direct and indirect effects of the covid-19 pandemic on mortality in 2020 in 29 high income countries with reliable and complete age and sex disaggregated mortality data. Design Time series study of high income countries. Setting Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, England and Wales, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Israel, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Northern Ireland, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Scotland, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United States. Participants Mortality data from the Short-term Mortality Fluctuations data series of the Human Mortality Database for 2016-20, harmonised and disaggregated by age and sex. Interventions Covid-19 pandemic and associated policy measures. Main outcome measures Weekly excess deaths (observed deaths versus expected deaths predicted by model) in 2020, by sex and age (0-14, 15-64, 65-74, 75-84, and ≥85 years), estimated using an over-dispersed Poisson regression model that accounts for temporal trends and seasonal variability in mortality. Results An estimated 979 000 (95% confidence interval 954 000 to 1 001 000) excess deaths occurred in 2020 in the 29 high income countries analysed. All countries had excess deaths in 2020, except New Zealand, Norway, and Denmark. The five countries with the highest absolute number of excess deaths were the US (458 000, 454 000 to 461 000), Italy (89 100, 87 500 to 90 700), England and Wales (85 400, 83 900 to 86 800), Spain (84 100, 82 800 to 85 300), and Poland (60 100, 58 800 to 61 300). New Zealand had lower overall mortality than expected (−2500, −2900 to −2100). In many countries, the estimated number of excess deaths substantially exceeded the number of reported deaths from covid-19. The highest excess death rates (per 100 000) in men were in Lithuania (285, 259 to 311), Poland (191, 184 to 197), Spain (179, 174 to 184), Hungary (174, 161 to 188), and Italy (168, 163 to 173); the highest rates in women were in Lithuania (210, 185 to 234), Spain (180, 175 to 185), Hungary (169, 156 to 182), Slovenia (158, 132 to 184), and Belgium (151, 141 to 162). Little evidence was found of subsequent compensatory reductions following excess mortality. Conclusion Approximately one million excess deaths occurred in 2020 in these 29 high income countries. Age standardised excess death rates were higher in men than women in almost all countries. Excess deaths substantially exceeded reported deaths from covid-19 in many countries, indicating that determining the full impact of the pandemic on mortality requires assessment of excess deaths. Many countries had lower deaths than expected in children