Author
Reda A. Elbarkouky
Bio: Reda A. Elbarkouky is an academic researcher from The Chinese University of Hong Kong. The author has contributed to research in topics: Stochastic modelling. The author has co-authored 1 publications.
Topics: Stochastic modelling
Papers
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated the stochastic nature of the COVID-19 temporal dynamics by generating a fractional-order dynamic model for the Saudi Arabia second virus wave, which is assumed to start on 1st March 2021.
Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the stochastic nature of the COVID-19 temporal dynamics by generating a fractional-order dynamic model and a fractional-order-stochastic model. Initially, we considered the first and second vaccination doses as multiple vaccinations were initiated worldwide. The concerned models are then tested for the Saudi Arabia second virus wave, which is assumed to start on 1st March 2021. Four daily vaccination scenarios for the first and second dose are assumed for 100 days from the wave beginning. One of these scenarios is based on function optimization using the invasive weed optimization algorithm (IWO). After that, we numerically solve the established models using the fractional Euler method and the Euler-Murayama method. Finally, the obtained virus dynamics using the assumed scenarios and the real one started by the government are compared. The optimized scenario using the IWO effectively minimizes the predicted cumulative wave infections with a 4.4 % lower number of used vaccination doses.
9 citations
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TL;DR: In this article , the authors proposed a probabilistic model to quantify the cost-benefit of mass vaccination scenarios against COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil, where three primary vaccine brands in Brazil (CoronaVac, AstraZeneca and Pfizer) were compared.
4 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper , a PID-based model reference fractional adaptive controller is proposed, with detailed mathematical modeling, and compared to the other controllers in the survey, the proposed controller proved its superiority over other controllers through its fast response and low rising and settling times.
Abstract: Voltage regulation is a crucial task for electrical grids in the presence of high penetration levels of renewable energies. The regulation of generator excitation improves the stability of the power system. An essential tool for controlling the excitation of generators is the automatic voltage regulator (AVR). It is advised to use a controller to increase the reliability of an AVR. A survey about different types of controllers is proposed in this paper. Then, a novel optimized PID-Based model reference fractional adaptive controller is proposed, with detailed mathematical modeling. The novel controller was compared to the controllers in the survey. The novel proposed controller proved its superiority over the other controllers through its fast response and low rising and settling times. Moreover, the proposed controller smoothly and instantaneously tracked dynamic reference changes.
2 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper , an epidemic model to understand COVID-19 transmission vaccination and therapy considerations was constructed and the model's equilibria were examined, and the reproduction parameter was calculated via a next-generation matrix method, symbolized by $ \mathcal{R}_0 $.
Abstract: In this research work, we construct an epidemic model to understand COVID-19 transmission vaccination and therapy considerations. The model's equilibria were examined, and the reproduction parameter was calculated via a next-generation matrix method, symbolized by $ \mathcal{R}_0 $. We have shown that the infection-free steady state of our system is locally asymptotically stable for $ \mathcal{R}_0 < 1 $. Also, the local asymptotic stability of the endemic steady state has been established for $ \mathcal{R}_0 > 1 $. We have used a partial rank correlation coefficient method for sensitivity analysis of the threshold parameter $ \mathcal{R}_0 $. The contribution of vaccination to the threshold parameter is explored through graphical results. In addition to this, the uniqueness and existence of the solution to the postulated model of COVID-19 infection is shown. We ran various simulations of the proposed COVID-19 dynamics with varied input parameters to scrutinize the complex dynamics of COVID-19 infection. We illustrated the variation in the dynamical behavior of the system with different values of the input parameters. The key factors of the system are visualized for the public health officials for the control of the infection.
1 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper , a piecewise derivative framework with singular and non-singular kernels is proposed to investigate the evolution of rotavirus with regard to the effect of vaccination and the existence of a solution of the piecewise Rotavirus model is investigated via fixed-point results.
Abstract: Many diseases are caused by viruses of different symmetrical shapes. Rotavirus particles are approximately 75 nm in diameter. They have icosahedral symmetry and particles that possess two concentric protein shells, or capsids. In this research, using a piecewise derivative framework with singular and non-singular kernels, we investigate the evolution of rotavirus with regard to the effect of vaccination. For the considered model, the existence of a solution of the piecewise rotavirus model is investigated via fixed-point results. The Adam–Bashforth numerical method along with the Newton polynomial is implemented to deduce the numerical solution of the considered model. Various versions of the stability of the solution of the piecewise rotavirus model are presented using the Ulam–Hyres concept and nonlinear analysis. We use MATLAB to perform the numerical simulation for a few fractional orders to study the crossover dynamics and evolution and effect of vaccination on rotavirus disease. To check the validity of the proposed approach, we compared our simulated results with real data from various countries.
1 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper , a stochastic SIQR epidemic model with non-monotone incidence is investigated, where the disease-free equilibrium of the deterministic model is globally asymptotically stable by using the Lyapunov method.
Abstract: In this paper, a stochastic SIQR epidemic model with non-monotone incidence is investigated. First of all, we consider the disease-free equilibrium of the deterministic model is globally asymptotically stable by using the Lyapunov method. Secondly, the existence and uniqueness of positive solution to the stochastic model is obtained. Then, the sufficient condition for extinction of the stochastic model is established. Furthermore, a unique stationary distribution to stochastic model will exist by constructing proper Lyapunov function. Finally, numerical examples are carried out to illustrate the theoretical results, with the help of numerical simulations, we can see that the higher intensities of the white noise or the bigger of the quarantine rate can accelerate the extinction of the disease. This theoretically explains the significance of quarantine strength (or isolation measures) when an epidemic erupts.