Riccardo De Bonis

Bio: Riccardo De Bonis is an academic researcher from Banca d'Italia. The author has contributed to research in topics: Debt & Interest rate. The author has an hindex of 16, co-authored 60 publications receiving 1135 citations.

The effects of financial and real wealth on consumption: new evidence from OECD countries

Abstract: In this article we present new estimates of the effect of household financial and real wealth on consumption. The analysis refers to 11 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Developoment (OECD) countries and takes into account quarterly data from 1997 to 2008. Unlike most of the previous literature on European countries, we measure financial wealth using quarterly harmonized data on household financial assets and liabilities, which have been gathered from the flow of funds. For comparison, we also employ as a proxy for financial wealth national share price indices. We rely on standard static panel and single-country level autoregressive distributed lag estimations. Furthermore, we implement a recent econometric approach that allows for more flexible assumptions in the nonstationary panel framework under consideration. Our results show that both net financial wealth and real wealth have a positive effect on consumption. Overall, the influence of net financial assets is stronger than that of real assets.

The Italian financial cycle: 1861–2011

Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the main features of the Italian financial cycle, extracted by means of a structural trend-cycle decomposition of the credit-to-GDP ratio, using annual observations from 1861 to 2011. In order to draw conclusions based on solid historical data, we provide a thorough reconstruction of the key balance sheet time series of Italian banks, considering all the main assets and liabilities over the last 150 years. We come to three main conclusions. First, while there was close correlation between loans and deposits (relative to GDP) until the mid-1970s, over the last 30 years, this link became more tenuous and the volume of loans has increased in relation to deposits. The banks covered this “funding gap” mainly by issuing new debt securities. Second, the Italian financial cycle has a much longer duration than traditional business cycles. Third, taking into account the deviation of the credit-to-GDP ratio from its trend, an acceleration of credit preceded or accompanied a banking crisis in 8 out of the 12 episodes listed by Reinhart and Rogoff (This time is different: eight centuries of financial folly. Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2009). A Logit regression confirms a positive association between the probability of a banking crisis and a previous acceleration of the credit-to-GDP gap. However, there were also periods—such as the early 1970s—in which the growth of the credit-to-GDP ratio was not followed by a banking crisis.

The Effects of Financial and Real Wealth on Consumption: New Evidence from OECD Countries

Abstract: In this paper we present new estimates of the effect of households’ financial and real wealth on consumption. The analysis makes reference to eleven OECD countries and takes into account quarterly data from 1997 to 2008. Unlike most of the previous literature on European countries, we measure financial wealth using quarterly harmonized data on households’ financial assets and liabilities, which have been gleaned from the flow of funds. For comparison, we also employ national share price indices as a proxy for financial wealth. We rely on 1) standard static panel and 2) single-country level autoregressive distributed lag estimations. Furthermore, we implement a recent econometric approach that allows for more flexible assumptions in the non-stationary panel framework under consideration. Our results show that both net financial wealth and real wealth have a positive effect on consumption. Overall, the influence of net financial assets is stronger than that of real assets.

Household Debt in OECD Countries: The Role of Supply-Side and Demand-Side Factors

Abstract: In many countries, household debt increased from the 1990s until the global financial crisis of 2007–2008 and then stagnated with the Great Recession, the euro-area sovereign debt crisis and deleveraging. In spite of these common trends, differences in national household debt/disposable income ratios are evident. This paper studies the determinants of household debt using a dataset of 33 countries and taking into account both demand-side and supply-side factors. The econometric exercises, covering the period 1995–2016, yield the following results. First, there is a positive link between household debt and both household wealth and house price growth. Second, the quality of bankruptcy laws relates positively to household debt, whereas longer insolvency resolution times are associated with lower household debt. Third, Anglo-Saxon legal origin and Scandinavian legal origin have a stronger link with household debt than French and German legal origin. Fourth, household debt is higher in countries with social-democratic and liberal welfare models than in conservative and Eastern European welfare states. Fifth, the ratio of public debt to GDP displays a negative association with private debt. Last, the effect of saving on household debt is significant only in the years of household deleveraging, i.e. after the global financial crisis. While the effect of demand-side variables is unstable over time, supply-side variables appear to be more persistent in determining the level of household debt.

Economic growth and income inequality

Abstract: We investigate whether income inequality affects subsequent growth in a cross-country sample for 1965-90, using the models of Barro (1997), Bleaney and Nishiyama (2002) and Sachs and Warner (1997), with negative results. We then investigate the evolution of income inequality over the same period and its correlation with growth. The dominating feature is inequality convergence across countries. This convergence has been significantly faster amongst developed countries. Growth does not appear to influence the evolution of inequality over time. Outline

比较金融系统 = Comparing financial systems

Abstract: Financial systems are crucial to the allocation of resources in a modern economy. They channel household savings to the corporate sector and allocate investment funds among firms; they allow intertemporal smoothing of consumption by households and expenditures by firms; and they enable households and firms to share risks. These functions are common to the financial systems of most developed economies. Yet the form of these financial systems varies widely. In the United States and the United Kingdom competitive markets dominate the financial landscape, whereas in France, Germany, and Japan banks have traditionally played the most important role. Why do different countries have such different financial systems? Is one system better than all the others? Do different systems merely represent alternative ways of satisfying similar needs? Is the current trend toward market-based systems desirable? Franklin Allen and Douglas Gale argue that the view that market-based systems are best is simplistic. A more nuanced approach is necessary. For example, financial markets may be bad for risk sharing; competition in banking may be inefficient; financial crises can be good as well as bad; and separation of ownership and control can be optimal. Financial institutions are not simply veils, disguising the allocation mechanism without affecting it, but are crucial to overcoming market imperfections. An optimal financial system relies on both financial markets and financial intermediaries.

Theory of business enterprise

Abstract: Veblen has been claimed and rejected both by sociologists and economists as being one of theirs. He enriched and attacked both disciplines, as he did so many others: philosophy, history, social psychology, politics, and linguistics. Because he took all knowledge as necessary and relevant to adequate understanding, Veblen was a holistic analyst of the social process. First published in 1904, this classic analysis of the U.S. economy has enduring value today. In it, Veblen posited a theory of business fluctuations and economic growth which included chronic depression and inflation. He predicted the socioeconomic changes that would occur as a result: militarism, imperialism, fascism, consumerism, and the development of the mass media as well as the corporate bureaucracy. Douglas Dowd's introduction places the volume within the traditions of both macroeconomics and microeconomics, tracing Veblen's place among social thinkers, and the place of this volume in the body of his work.

Stock markets, banks and economic growth

Abstract: This thesis investigates the relationship between economic growth and financial development in developing countries over 1988-2001. Previous studies have generally used averaged data, for both developing and developed countries, and inappropriate estimation methods. In an attempt to reach some definitive conclusions, Generalised Method of Moments dynamic estimation is used with a newly collected panel of annual data to assess the relationship. The results show that while banks performance has a negative impact on growth, stock markets positively promote growth. To reach an overall conclusion about the impact of finance on growth and to solve the problems associated with the existence of multicollinearity among the different measures of financial development, principal components analysis is used to generate new, comprehensive measures of financial development. In assessing the link between the new measures and financial development and growth, the results support the existence of an overall positive relationship. The thesis also examines the behaviour of interest rates in developing and industrialised countries using individual and panel unit root tests. The results are sensitive to the choice of the test, country and time unit.