reoffending than those who completed treatment. The predictors of nonsexual violent recidivism and general (any) recidivism were similar to those predictors found among nonsexual criminals (e.g., prior violent offenses, age, juvenile deliquency). Our results suggest that applied risk assessments of sexual offenders should consider separately the offender's risk for sexual and nonsexual recidivism. Assessing chronicity is crucial for clients whose sexual behaviors have brought them into conflict with the law. Many exceptional criminal justice policies, such as postsentence detention (e.g., Anderson & Masters, 1992), lifetime community supervision, and community notification, target those sexual offenders likely to reoffend. Clinicians need to judge whether the client's behaviors are truly atypical of the individual (as the client would like us to believe) or whether the client merits a virtually permanent label as a sexual offender.

/pdf/predicting-relapse-a-meta-analysis-of-sexual-offender-ml492rgh0h.pdf

Predicting relapse: a meta-analysis of sexual offender recidivism studies.

An overview of the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) is provided, including a discussion of the challenges encountered during its development and how they were addressed. In addition, an evaluation of a pair of CESM2 long preindustrial control and historical ensemble simulations is presented. These simulations were performed using the nominal 1° horizontal resolution configuration of the coupled model with both the “low-top” (40 km, with limited chemistry) and “high-top” (130 km, with comprehensive chemistry) versions of the atmospheric component. CESM2 contains many substantial science and infrastructure improvements and new capabilities since its previous major release, CESM1, resulting in improved historical simulations in comparison to CESM1 and available observations. These include major reductions in low-latitude precipitation and shortwave cloud forcing biases; better representation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation; better El Nino-Southern Oscillation-related teleconnections; and a global land carbon accumulation trend that agrees well with observationally based estimates. Most tropospheric and surface features of the low- and high-top simulations are very similar to each other, so these improvements are present in both configurations. CESM2 has an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 5.1–5.3 °C, larger than in CESM1, primarily due to a combination of relatively small changes to cloud microphysics and boundary layer parameters. In contrast, CESM2's transient climate response of 1.9–2.0 °C is comparable to that of CESM1. The model outputs from these and many other simulations are available to the research community, and they represent CESM2's contributions to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6.

The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)

The Community Land Model (CLM) is the land component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and is used in several global and regional modeling systems. In this paper, we introduce model developments included in CLM version 5 (CLM5), which is the default land component for CESM2. We assess an ensemble of simulations, including prescribed and prognostic vegetation state, multiple forcing data sets, and CLM4, CLM4.5, and CLM5, against a range of metrics including from the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMBv2) package. CLM5 includes new and updated processes and parameterizations: (1) dynamic land units, (2) updated parameterizations and structure for hydrology and snow (spatially explicit soil depth, dry surface layer, revised groundwater scheme, revised canopy interception and canopy snow processes, updated fresh snow density, simple firn model, and Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport), (3) plant hydraulics and hydraulic redistribution, (4) revised nitrogen cycling (flexible leaf stoichiometry, leaf N optimization for photosynthesis, and carbon costs for plant nitrogen uptake), (5) global crop model with six crop types and time‐evolving irrigated areas and fertilization rates, (6) updated urban building energy, (7) carbon isotopes, and (8) updated stomatal physiology. New optional features include demographically structured dynamic vegetation model (Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator), ozone damage to plants, and fire trace gas emissions coupling to the atmosphere. Conclusive establishment of improvement or degradation of individual variables or metrics is challenged by forcing uncertainty, parametric uncertainty, and model structural complexity, but the multivariate metrics presented here suggest a general broad improvement from CLM4 to CLM5.

The Community Land Model version 5 : description of new features, benchmarking, and impact of forcing uncertainty

An ensemble-based model of PM2.5 concentration across the contiguous United States with high spatiotemporal resolution

Asthma prevalence is increasing and asthma-related costs are likely to increase, but few studies have analysed the relationship of asthma costs and severity. The impact of severity on costs was quantified in a cohort of 318 asthmatic patients followed up prospectively for 1 yr. Patients presenting with a broad range of severity of the disease (intermittent, mild persistent, moderate persistent, severe persistent) were recruited by chest physicians throughout France and treated for 1 yr according to customary clinical practice and following international guidelines. Severity, direct and indirect costs, and quality of life (QoL) were assessed. A multivariate analysis was conducted to relate factors contributing to the costs measured. Mean direct costs for goods and services excluding hospitalization, numbers of consultations, supplementary examinations, and the use and cost of bronchodilators and corticosteroids, indirect costs of days lost from work, and adverse QoL parameters all increased significantly with increasing severity. This also applied to mean age, body weight, asthma duration, depression of forced expiratory volume in one second, and inhaled corticosteroid posology in the 234 patients completing the study. There was a significant relationship (r=0.614, p<0.001) between direct costs (hospitalization and cures were excluded) and three domains of the QoL questionnaire (mobility, pain and energy). Overall costs of asthma (including individual direct costs, indirect costs, and intangible quality of life costs) are clearly related to severity. This is the first study in asthma to combine rigorous independent classification of grades of severity in statistically valid numbers of patients of grades receiving "real-world" treatment and followed-up prospectively for 1 yr. It allowed severity to be accurately related to direct, indirect and intangible costs of asthma. Quality of life explained a significant part of these costs.

https://erj.ersjournals.com/content/erj/19/1/61.full.pdf

Robert Allen Hill

Papers

Description and evaluation