Robert C. J. Wills

Bio: Robert C. J. Wills is an academic researcher from University of Washington. The author has contributed to research in topics: Climate model & Climate change. The author has an hindex of 13, co-authored 24 publications receiving 451 citations. Previous affiliations of Robert C. J. Wills include California Institute of Technology & ETH Zurich.

Disentangling Global Warming, Multidecadal Variability, and El Niño in Pacific Temperatures

Abstract: A key challenge in climate science is to separate observed temperature changes into components due to internal variability and responses to external forcing Extended integrations of forced and unforced climate models are often used for this purpose Here we demonstrate a novel method to separate modes of internal variability from global warming based on differences in time scale and spatial pattern, without relying on climate models We identify uncorrelated components of Pacific sea surface temperature variability due to global warming, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Our results give statistical representations of PDO and ENSO that are consistent with their being separate processes, operating on different time scales, but are otherwise consistent with canonical definitions We isolate the multidecadal variability of the PDO and find that it is confined to midlatitudes; tropical sea surface temperatures and their teleconnections mix in higher‐frequency variability This implies that midlatitude PDO anomalies are more persistent than previously thought

Deglacial upwelling, productivity and CO2 outgassing in the North Pacific Ocean

Abstract: The interplay between ocean circulation and biological productivity affects atmospheric CO2 levels and marine oxygen concentrations. During the warming of the last deglaciation, the North Pacific experienced a peak in productivity and widespread hypoxia, with changes in circulation, iron supply and light limitation all proposed as potential drivers. Here we use the boron-isotope composition of planktic foraminifera from a sediment core in the western North Pacific to reconstruct pH and dissolved CO2 concentrations from 24,000 to 8,000 years ago. We find that the productivity peak during the Bolling–Allerod warm interval, 14,700 to 12,900 years ago, was associated with a decrease in near-surface pH and an increase in pCO2, and must therefore have been driven by increased supply of nutrient- and CO2-rich waters. In a climate model ensemble (PMIP3), the presence of large ice sheets over North America results in high rates of wind-driven upwelling within the subpolar North Pacific. We suggest that this process, combined with collapse of North Pacific Intermediate Water formation at the onset of the Bolling–Allerod, led to high rates of upwelling of water rich in nutrients and CO2, and supported the peak in productivity. The respiration of this organic matter, along with poor ventilation, probably caused the regional hypoxia. We suggest that CO2 outgassing from the North Pacific helped to maintain high atmospheric CO2 concentrations during the Bolling–Allerod and contributed to the deglacial CO2 rise.

Ocean–Atmosphere Dynamical Coupling Fundamental to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Abstract: The North Atlantic has shown large multidecadal temperature shifts during the twentieth century. There is ongoing debate about whether this variability arises primarily through the influenc...

Northern Hemisphere Stationary Waves in a Changing Climate.

Abstract: Stationary waves are planetary-scale longitudinal variations in the time-averaged atmospheric circulation. Here, we consider the projected response of Northern Hemisphere stationary waves to climate change in winter and summer. We discuss how the response varies across different metrics, identify robust responses, and review proposed mechanisms. Climate models project shifts in the prevailing wind patterns, with corresponding impacts on regional precipitation, temperature, and extreme events. Recent work has improved our understanding of the links between stationary waves and regional climate and identified robust stationary wave responses to climate change, which include an increased zonal lengthscale in winter, a poleward shift of the wintertime circulation over the Pacific, a weakening of monsoonal circulations, and an overall weakening of stationary wave circulations, particularly their divergent component and quasi-stationary disturbances. Numerous factors influence Northern Hemisphere stationary waves, and mechanistic theories exist for only a few aspects of the stationary wave response to climate change. Idealized studies have proven useful for understanding the climate responses of particular atmospheric circulation features and should be a continued focus of future research.

Atlantic-Pacific Asymmetry in Deep-Water Formation

Abstract: While the Atlantic Ocean is ventilated by high-latitude deep water formation and exhibits a pole-to-pole overturning circulation, the Pacific Ocean does not. This asymmetric global overturning pattern has persisted for the past 2–3 million years, with evidence for different ventilation modes in the deeper past. In the current climate, the Atlantic-Pacific asymmetry occurs because the Atlantic is more saline, enabling deep convection. To what extent the salinity contrast between the two basins is dominated by atmospheric processes (larger net evaporation over the Atlantic) or oceanic processes (salinity transport into the Atlantic) remains an outstanding question. Numerical simulations have provided support for both mechanisms; observations of the present climate support a strong role for atmospheric processes as well as some modulation by oceanic processes. A major avenue for future work is the quantification of the various processes at play to identify which mechanisms are primary in different climate states.

More Evidence Linking Arctic Amplification to Extreme Weather in Mid-Latitudes

Abstract: [1] Arctic amplification (AA) – the observed enhanced warming in high northern latitudes relative to the northern hemisphere – is evident in lower-tropospheric temperatures and in 1000-to-500 hPa thicknesses. Daily fields of 500 hPa heights from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis are analyzed over N. America and the N. Atlantic to assess changes in north-south (Rossby) wave characteristics associated with AA and the relaxation of poleward thickness gradients. Two effects are identified that each contribute to a slower eastward progression of Rossby waves in the upper-level flow: 1) weakened zonal winds, and 2) increased wave amplitude. These effects are particularly evident in autumn and winter consistent with sea-ice loss, but are also apparent in summer, possibly related to earlier snow melt on high-latitude land. Slower progression of upper-level waves would cause associated weather patterns in mid-latitudes to be more persistent, which may lead to an increased probability of extreme weather events that result from prolonged conditions, such as drought, flooding, cold spells, and heat waves.

Global Warming Pattern Formation: Sea Surface Temperature and Rainfall

Abstract: Spatial variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall changes over the tropics are investigated based on ensemble simulations for the first half of the twenty-first century under the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario A1B with coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Despite a GHG increase that is nearly uniform in space, pronounced patterns emerge in both SST and precipitation. Regional differences in SST warming can be as large as the tropical-mean warming. Specifically, the tropical Pacific warming features a conspicuous maximum along the equator and a minimum in the southeast subtropics. The former is associated with westerly wind anomalies whereas the latter is linked to intensified southeast trade winds, suggestive of wind–evaporation–SST feedback. There is a tendency for a greater warming in the northern subtropics than in the southern subtropics in accordance ...

Dominant control of the South Asian monsoon by orographic insulation versus plateau heating

Abstract: The Tibetan plateau, like any landmass, emits energy into the atmosphere in the form of dry heat and water vapour, but its mean surface elevation is more than 5 km above sea level. This elevation is widely held to cause the plateau to serve as a heat source that drives the South Asian summer monsoon, potentially coupling uplift of the plateau to climate changes on geologic timescales. Observations of the present climate, however, do not clearly establish the Tibetan plateau as the dominant thermal forcing in the region: peak upper-tropospheric temperatures during boreal summer are located over continental India, south of the plateau. Here we show that, although Tibetan plateau heating locally enhances rainfall along its southern edge in an atmospheric model, the large-scale South Asian summer monsoon circulation is otherwise unaffected by removal of the plateau, provided that the narrow orography of the Himalayas and adjacent mountain ranges is preserved. Additional observational and model results suggest that these mountains produce a strong monsoon by insulating warm, moist air over continental India from the cold and dry extratropics. These results call for both a reinterpretation of how South Asian climate may have responded to orographic uplift, and a re-evaluation of how this climate may respond to modified land surface and radiative forcings in coming decades.

Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects

Abstract: Internal variability in the climate system confounds assessment of human-induced climate change and imposes irreducible limits on the accuracy of climate change projections, especially at regional and decadal scales. A new collection of initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) generated with seven Earth system models under historical and future radiative forcing scenarios provides new insights into uncertainties due to internal variability versus model differences. These data enhance the assessment of climate change risks, including extreme events, and offer a powerful testbed for new methodologies aimed at separating forced signals from internal variability in the observational record. Opportunities and challenges confronting the design and dissemination of future LEs, including increased spatial resolution and model complexity alongside emerging Earth system applications, are discussed. Climate change detection is confounded by internal variability, but recent initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) have begun addressing this issue. This Perspective discusses the value of multi-model LEs, the challenges of providing them and their role in future climate change research.

Oceanic vertical mixing: a review and a model with a nonlocal boundary layer parameterization

Abstract: If model parameterizations of unresolved physics, such as the variety of upper ocean mixing processes, are to hold over the large range of time and space scales of importance to climate, they must be strongly physically based. Observations, theories, and models of oceanic vertical mixing are surveyed. Two distinct regimes are identified: ocean mixing in the boundary layer near the surface under a variety of surface forcing conditions (stabilizing, destabilizing, and wind driven), and mixing in the ocean interior due to internal waves, shear instability, and double diffusion (arising from the different molecular diffusion rates of heat and salt). Mixing schemes commonly applied to the upper ocean are shown not to contain some potentially important boundary layer physics. Therefore a new parameterization of oceanic boundary layer mixing is developed to accommodate some of this physics. It includes a scheme for determining the boundary layer depth h, where the turbulent contribution to the vertical shear of a bulk Richardson number is parameterized. Expressions for diffusivity and nonlocal transport throughout the boundary layer are given. The diffusivity is formulated to agree with similarity theory of turbulence in the surface layer and is subject to the conditions that both it and its vertical gradient match the interior values at h. This nonlocal “K profile parameterization” (KPP) is then verified and compared to alternatives, including its atmospheric counterparts. Its most important feature is shown to be the capability of the boundary layer to penetrate well into a stable thermocline in both convective and wind-driven situations. The diffusivities of the aforementioned three interior mixing processes are modeled as constants, functions of a gradient Richardson number (a measure of the relative importance of stratification to destabilizing shear), and functions of the double-diffusion density ratio, Rρ. Oceanic simulations of convective penetration, wind deepening, and diurnal cycling are used to determine appropriate values for various model parameters as weak functions of vertical resolution. Annual cycle simulations at ocean weather station Papa for 1961 and 1969–1974 are used to test the complete suite of parameterizations. Model and observed temperatures at all depths are shown to agree very well into September, after which systematic advective cooling in the ocean produces expected differences. It is argued that this cooling and a steady salt advection into the model are needed to balance the net annual surface heating and freshwater input. With these advections, good multiyear simulations of temperature and salinity can be achieved. These results and KPP simulations of the diurnal cycle at the Long-Term Upper Ocean Study (LOTUS) site are compared with the results of other models. It is demonstrated that the KPP model exchanges properties between the mixed layer and thermocline in a manner consistent with observations, and at least as well or better than alternatives.