Showing papers by "Robert E. Lucas published in 1986"
TL;DR: In this article, a complete and internally consistent set of principles for the conduct of a welfare-maximizing fiscal and monetary policy is described, and issues of time-consistency that arise in applying these principles to actual economics are also discussed.
128 citations
Posted Content•
8 citations
01 Jan 1986
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that it is unlikely that the growth in demand for labor in agriculture will substantially outpace population expansion, and they point out that although somewhat faster agricultural growth may not abosrb much labor directly, it may have substantial secondary effects on non-agricultural employment in rural areas and small towns.
Abstract: This paper maintains that it is unlikely that the growth in demand for labor in agriculture will substantially outpace population expansion. However, given the absolute size of employment in organized industry, even very major changes regarding the pattern of effective protection, public sector performance, minimum wage laws, demand management including anti-export bias, and the plethora of state controls, would generate only relatively tiny direct effects on the overall demand for labor. About three quarters of the population lives in areas defined as rural, which involves farm as well as non-farm activities. Since many of the activities in the rural non-farm sector are non-tradeable, the linkages with organized industry and agriculture are of critical importance to policy impact in employment prospects. Hence, the author points out that although somewhat faster agricultural growth may not abosrb much labor directly, it may have substantial secondary effects on non-agricultural employment in rural areas and small towns. Finally, it is pointed out that links between the informal sector, agriculture and industry should be an important component of future research.
4 citations