Robert E. Lucas

Bio: Robert E. Lucas is an academic researcher from University of Chicago. The author has contributed to research in topics: Population & General equilibrium theory. The author has an hindex of 81, co-authored 204 publications receiving 94081 citations. Previous affiliations of Robert E. Lucas include National Bureau of Economic Research & Boston University.

Diaspora and Development: Highly Skilled Migrants from East Asia

Abstract: a. The nature of international networks b. Remittances and capital flows c. Links between international trade and migration d. Technology transfers 6. Factors Affecting the International Migration of Highly Skilled People p.32 a. Receiving country policies b. Study abroad c. Return migration 7. Future Prospects Abstract Three principal streams may be discerned among emigrants from East Asia: to the Pacific rim OECD countries, to the Middle East, and to other countries within the East Asian region. The last of these reflects a migration transition that has occurred among the higher income countries within the region: Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand have each become significant hosts to migrant populations. In most instances, unskilled migrants dominate these inflows, typically admitted temporarily or illegally. Meanwhile, overall emigration from these relatively affluent countries has diminished, though a significant brain drain continues to the Pacific rim OECD nations. Meanwhile, China, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam have yet to undergo any transition to become hosts to significant numbers of foreign nationals and emigration from these countries is a mix of highly skilled and less skilled workers. The movement of tertiary educated people from East Asia to North America and Australasia is large in absolute terms. By 2000, 61 percent of East Asian adults in the US had attended college or graduate school, with an estimated 840 thousand, college-educated adults from the Philippines, 480 thousand from China, 440 thousand from Korea, 265 thousand from Taiwan and nearly 300 thousand from Vietnam. From each of the People's Republic of China, the Philippines and Korea more than 200,000 college or graduate school trained adults are estimated to have entered the US alone, net of departures, between 1994 and 2000. Moreover, data from 1997 indicate nearly half a million East Asian born scientists and engineers living in the US. In Canada and Australia in 1996, there were over a million and over half a million people living, respectively, who had been born in East Asia and the skill-based visa system guaranteed that the majority of these were skilled. For countries such as the Philippines, Korea and Taiwan these numbers are large relative to their total stocks of tertiary educated population; for China this is less true though these highly skilled emigrants have been drawn from just a few coastal areas of China where the incidence of departure is consequently quite extraordinary. The traditional assumption is that loss …

Notes on estimated aggregate quarterly consumption functions

Abstract: The aggregate quarterly consumption functions suggested by DuesenberryEckstein-Fromm (DEF) and by Zellner are recomputed and extended through 1960 on the basis of more recent data. While the actual "fit" of the DEF consumption function is substantially lower than previously reported, the coefficient estimates remain reasonably stable throughout the period. The Zellner consumption function fits well but gives rather low estimates of the long run marginal propensity to consume and a rather high and hard to interpret coefficient for the liquid assets variable. It is found also that the Durbin-Watson statistic presents a misleading picture of the amount of actual serial correlation in the residuals of these functions and an alternative nonparametric test is suggested.

Advances in Finite Element Techniques for Calculating Cable Resistances and Inductances

Abstract: In theory, finite element procedures can be applied to arbitrary conductor configurations in order to determine their frequency dependent resistances and inductances to an arbitrarily high degree of accuracy. In practice, limitations are imposed by the shapes of the finite elements used and by the accuracy of the formulae invoked to estimate their inductances. This paper reviews the concepts underlying extant finite element procedures, proposes a more efficient set of element shapes than are used in extant procedures and develops the inductance formulae necessary to implement these shapes. This results in a considerably more capable algorithm.

Social Capital in the Creation of Human Capital

Abstract: In this paper, the concept of social capital is introduced and illustrated, its forms are described, the social structural conditions under which it arises are examined, and it is used in an analys...

A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth

Abstract: This paper examines whether the Solow growth model is consistent with the international variation in the standard of living. It shows that an augmented Solow model that includes accumulation of human as well as physical capital provides an excellent description of the cross-country data. The paper also examines the implications of the Solow model for convergence in standards of living, that is, for whether poor countries tend to grow faster than rich countries. The evidence indicates that, holding population growth and capital accumulation constant, countries converge at about the rate the augmented Solow model predicts. This paper takes Robert Solow seriously. In his classic 1956 article Solow proposed that we begin the study of economic growth by assuming a standard neoclassical production function with decreasing returns to capital. Taking the rates of saving and population growth as exogenous, he showed that these two vari- ables determine the steady-state level of income per capita. Be- cause saving and population growth rates vary across countries, different countries reach different steady states. Solow's model gives simple testable predictions about how these variables influ- ence the steady-state level of income. The higher the rate of saving, the richer the country. The higher the rate of population growth, the poorer the country. This paper argues that the predictions of the Solow model are, to a first approximation, consistent with the evidence. Examining recently available data for a large set of countries, we find that saving and population growth affect income in the directions that Solow predicted. Moreover, more than half of the cross-country variation in income per capita can be explained by these two variables alone. Yet all is not right for the Solow model. Although the model correctly predicts the directions of the effects of saving and

Endogenous Technological Change

Abstract: Growth in this model is driven by technological change that arises from intentional investment decisions made by profit-maximizing agents. The distinguishing feature of the technology as an input is that it is neither a conventional good nor a public good; it is a nonrival, partially excludable good. Because of the nonconvexity introduced by a nonrival good, price-taking competition cannot be supported. Instead, the equilibrium is one with monopolistic competition. The main conclusions are that the stock of human capital determines the rate of growth, that too little human capital is devoted to research in equilibrium, that integration into world markets will increase growth rates, and that having a large population is not sufficient to generate growth.

Endogenous Technological Change

Abstract: Growth in this model is driven by technological change that arises from intentional investment decisions made by profit maximizing agents. The distinguishing feature of the technology as an input is that it is neither a conventional good nor a public good; it is a nonrival, partially excludable good. Because of the nonconvexity introduced by a nonrival good, price-taking competition cannot be supported, and instead, the equilibriumis one with monopolistic competition. The main conclusions are that the stock of human capital determines the rate of growth, that too little human capital is devoted to research in equilibrium, that integration into world markets will increase growth rates, and that having a large population is not sufficient to generate growth.