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Robert E. Lucas

Bio: Robert E. Lucas is an academic researcher from University of Chicago. The author has contributed to research in topics: Population & General equilibrium theory. The author has an hindex of 81, co-authored 204 publications receiving 94081 citations. Previous affiliations of Robert E. Lucas include National Bureau of Economic Research & Boston University.


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TL;DR: In this article, a model is proposed to describe the evolution of real GDPs in the world economy that is intended to apply to all open economies, and five parameters of the model are calibrated using the Sachs-Warner definition of openness and time-series and cross-section data on incomes and other variables from the 19th and 20th centuries.
Abstract: A model is proposed to describe the evolution of real GDPs in the world economy that is intended to apply to all open economies. The five parameters of the model are calibrated using the Sachs-Warner definition of openness and time-series and cross-section data on incomes and other variables from the 19th and 20th centuries. The model predicts convergence of income levels and growth rates and has strong but reasonable implications for transition dynamics.

1 citations

Posted Content
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explore the long-run demand for M1 based on a dataset comprising 31 countries since 1851 and find that the data often prefer the specification in the levels of velocity and the short rate originally estimated by Selden (1956) and Latane (1960) to either the log-log, or the semi-log ones.
Abstract: We explore the long-run demand for M1 based on a dataset comprising 31 countries since 1851. In many cases cointegration tests identify a long-run equilibrium relationship between either velocity and the short rate, or M1, GDP, and the short rate. Evidence is especially strong for the United States and the United Kingdom over the entire period since World War I, and for high-inflation countries such as Israel. For low-inflation countries the data often prefer the specification in the levels of velocity and the short rate originally estimated by Selden (1956) and Latane (1960) to either the log-log, or the semi-log ones. This is especially clear for the United States.Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.
Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors consider the choice of the monetary arrangements that might and should characterize the constitutional agreement that results from the current debate on Canada's future constitutional structure and conclude that a currency union is superior to fixed exchange rates and fixed exchange rate are superior to free exchange rates in a world of consistency in nominal environments.
Abstract: The authors consider the choice of the monetary arrangements that might and should characterize the constitutional agreement that results from the current debate on Canada's future constitutional structure. The options considered.are free exchange rates, fixed exchange rates, and a U.S. dollar currency union, and the criteria utilized are the stability of real income and employment and the efficiency resource allocation. They conclude that a currency union is superior to fixed exchange rates and fixed exchange rates are superior to free exchange rates in a world of consistency in nominal environments. However, if we are unwilling to surrender our autonomy over the aggregate price level to our principal trading partner, then a free exchange rate regime is the only feasible choice.

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TL;DR: In this paper, the concept of social capital is introduced and illustrated, its forms are described, the social structural conditions under which it arises are examined, and it is used in an analys...
Abstract: In this paper, the concept of social capital is introduced and illustrated, its forms are described, the social structural conditions under which it arises are examined, and it is used in an analys...

31,693 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors examined whether the Solow growth model is consistent with the international variation in the standard of living, and they showed that an augmented Solow model that includes accumulation of human as well as physical capital provides an excellent description of the cross-country data.
Abstract: This paper examines whether the Solow growth model is consistent with the international variation in the standard of living. It shows that an augmented Solow model that includes accumulation of human as well as physical capital provides an excellent description of the cross-country data. The paper also examines the implications of the Solow model for convergence in standards of living, that is, for whether poor countries tend to grow faster than rich countries. The evidence indicates that, holding population growth and capital accumulation constant, countries converge at about the rate the augmented Solow model predicts. This paper takes Robert Solow seriously. In his classic 1956 article Solow proposed that we begin the study of economic growth by assuming a standard neoclassical production function with decreasing returns to capital. Taking the rates of saving and population growth as exogenous, he showed that these two vari- ables determine the steady-state level of income per capita. Be- cause saving and population growth rates vary across countries, different countries reach different steady states. Solow's model gives simple testable predictions about how these variables influ- ence the steady-state level of income. The higher the rate of saving, the richer the country. The higher the rate of population growth, the poorer the country. This paper argues that the predictions of the Solow model are, to a first approximation, consistent with the evidence. Examining recently available data for a large set of countries, we find that saving and population growth affect income in the directions that Solow predicted. Moreover, more than half of the cross-country variation in income per capita can be explained by these two variables alone. Yet all is not right for the Solow model. Although the model correctly predicts the directions of the effects of saving and

14,402 citations

ReportDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors show that the stock of human capital determines the rate of growth, that too little human capital is devoted to research in equilibrium, that integration into world markets will increase growth rates, and that having a large population is not sufficient to generate growth.
Abstract: Growth in this model is driven by technological change that arises from intentional investment decisions made by profit-maximizing agents. The distinguishing feature of the technology as an input is that it is neither a conventional good nor a public good; it is a nonrival, partially excludable good. Because of the nonconvexity introduced by a nonrival good, price-taking competition cannot be supported. Instead, the equilibrium is one with monopolistic competition. The main conclusions are that the stock of human capital determines the rate of growth, that too little human capital is devoted to research in equilibrium, that integration into world markets will increase growth rates, and that having a large population is not sufficient to generate growth.

12,469 citations

Posted Content
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors show that the stock of human capital determines the rate of growth, that too little human capital is devoted to research in equilibrium, that integration into world markets will increase growth rates, and that having a large population is not sufficient to generate growth.
Abstract: Growth in this model is driven by technological change that arises from intentional investment decisions made by profit maximizing agents. The distinguishing feature of the technology as an input is that it is neither a conventional good nor a public good; it is a nonrival, partially excludable good. Because of the nonconvexity introduced by a nonrival good, price-taking competition cannot be supported, and instead, the equilibriumis one with monopolistic competition. The main conclusions are that the stock of human capital determines the rate of growth, that too little human capital is devoted to research in equilibrium, that integration into world markets will increase growth rates, and that having a large population is not sufficient to generate growth.

11,095 citations