Probability Distributions.- Linear Models for Regression.- Linear Models for Classification.- Neural Networks.- Kernel Methods.- Sparse Kernel Machines.- Graphical Models.- Mixture Models and EM.- Approximate Inference.- Sampling Methods.- Continuous Latent Variables.- Sequential Data.- Combining Models.

Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning

Convergence of Probability Measures. By P. Billingsley. Chichester, Sussex, Wiley, 1968. xii, 253 p. 9 1/4“. 117s.

Convergence of Probability Measures

* Measure Theory-Basic Notions * Measure Theory-Key Results * Processes, Distributions, and Independence * Random Sequences, Series, and Averages * Characteristic Functions and Classical Limit Theorems * Conditioning and Disintegration * Martingales and Optional Times * Markov Processes and Discrete-Time Chains * Random Walks and Renewal Theory * Stationary Processes and Ergodic Theory * Special Notions of Symmetry and Invariance * Poisson and Pure Jump-Type Markov Processes * Gaussian Processes and Brownian Motion * Skorohod Embedding and Invariance Principles * Independent Increments and Infinite Divisibility * Convergence of Random Processes, Measures, and Sets * Stochastic Integrals and Quadratic Variation * Continuous Martingales and Brownian Motion * Feller Processes and Semigroups * Ergodic Properties of Markov Processes * Stochastic Differential Equations and Martingale Problems * Local Time, Excursions, and Additive Functionals * One-Dimensional SDEs and Diffusions * Connections with PDEs and Potential Theory * Predictability, Compensation, and Excessive Functions * Semimartingales and General Stochastic Integration * Large Deviations * Appendix 1: Advanced Measure Theory * Appendix 2: Some Special Spaces * Historical and Bibliographical Notes * Bibliography * Indices

http://cyber.sibsutis.ru:82/Monarev/docs/nauka/PROBABILITY/Kallenberg%20O.%20Foundations%20of%20Modern%20Probability%20(Springer,1997)(ISBN%200387949577)(535s).pdf

Foundations of modern probability

Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

Hidden Markov Model Processing.- Discrete-Time HMM Estimation.- Discrete States and Discrete Observations.- Continuous-Range Observations.- Continuous-Range States and Observations.- A General Recursive Filter.- Practical Recursive Filters.- Continuous-Time HMM Estimation.- Discrete-Range States and Observations.- Markov Chains in Brownian Motion.- Two-Dimensional HMM Estimation.- Hidden Markov Random Fields.- HMM Optimal Control.- Discrete-Time HMM Control.- Risk-Sensitive Control of HMM.- Continuous-Time HMM Control.

Hidden Markov Models: Estimation and Control

These notes and other information about the course are available on www.statslab.cam.ac.uk/∼beresty/teach/StoCal/stocal.html Christina Goldschmidt, Stefan Grosskinsky, Gregory Miermont, and James Norris have all contributed to these notes. However, errors are my responsibility only. Comments and corrections are most welcome and should be sent to N.Berestycki AT statslab.cam.ac.uk Date last modified: April 23, 2010

Stochastic calculus and applications

Determining the trade–environment composition effect: the role of capital, labor and environmental regulations

In this paper, a new version of the quadrature Kalman filter (QKF) is developed theoretically and tested experimentally. We first derive the new QKF for nonlinear systems with additive Gaussian noise by linearizing the process and measurement functions using statistical linear regression (SLR) through a set of Gauss-Hermite quadrature points that parameterize the Gaussian density. Moreover, we discuss how the new QKF can be extended and modified to take into account specific details of a given application. We then go on to extend the use of the new QKF to discrete-time, nonlinear systems with additive, possibly non-Gaussian noise. A bank of parallel QKFs, called the Gaussian sum-quadrature Kalman filter (GS-QKF) approximates the predicted and posterior densities as a finite number of weighted sums of Gaussian densities. The weights are obtained from the residuals of the QKFs. Three different Gaussian mixture reduction techniques are presented to alleviate the growing number of the Gaussian sum terms inherent to the GS-QKFs. Simulation results exhibit a significant improvement of the GS-QKFs over other nonlinear filtering approaches, namely, the basic bootstrap (particle) filters and Gaussian-sum extended Kalman filters, to solve nonlinear non- Gaussian filtering problems.

http://soma.mcmaster.ca/papers/Paper_2.pdf

Discrete-Time Nonlinear Filtering Algorithms Using Gauss–Hermite Quadrature

A Black-Scholes market is considered in which the underlying economy, as modeled by the parameters and volatility of the processes, switches between a finite number of states The switching is modeled by a hidden Markov chain European options are priced and a Black-Scholes equation obtained The approximate valuation of American options due to Barone-Adesi and Whaley is extended to this setting

Robert J. Elliott

Papers

Hidden Markov Models: Estimation and Control

Stochastic calculus and applications

Determining the trade–environment composition effect: the role of capital, labor and environmental regulations

Discrete-Time Nonlinear Filtering Algorithms Using Gauss–Hermite Quadrature

American options with regime switching