Global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(12)61031-9.pdf

Effect of physical inactivity on major non-communicable diseases worldwide: an analysis of burden of disease and life expectancy

Summary Background Strong evidence shows that physical inactivity increases the risk of many adverse health conditions, including major non-communicable diseases such as coronary heart disease, type 2 diabetes, and breast and colon cancers, and shortens life expectancy. Because much of the world's population is inactive, this link presents a major public health issue. We aimed to quantify the effect of physical inactivity on these major non-communicable diseases by estimating how much disease could be averted if inactive people were to become active and to estimate gain in life expectancy at the population level. Methods For our analysis of burden of disease, we calculated population attributable fractions (PAFs) associated with physical inactivity using conservative assumptions for each of the major non-communicable diseases, by country, to estimate how much disease could be averted if physical inactivity were eliminated. We used life-table analysis to estimate gains in life expectancy of the population. Findings Worldwide, we estimate that physical inactivity causes 6% (ranging from 3·2% in southeast Asia to 7·8% in the eastern Mediterranean region) of the burden of disease from coronary heart disease, 7% (3·9–9·6) of type 2 diabetes, 10% (5·6–14·1) of breast cancer, and 10% (5·7–13·8) of colon cancer. Inactivity causes 9% (range 5·1–12·5) of premature mortality, or more than 5·3 million of the 57 million deaths that occurred worldwide in 2008. If inactivity were not eliminated, but decreased instead by 10% or 25%, more than 533 000 and more than 1·3 million deaths, respectively, could be averted every year. We estimated that elimination of physical inactivity would increase the life expectancy of the world's population by 0·68 (range 0·41–0·95) years. Interpretation Physical inactivity has a major health effect worldwide. Decrease in or removal of this unhealthy behaviour could improve health substantially. Funding None.

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(11)60813-1.pdf

The global obesity pandemic: shaped by global drivers and local environments

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(10)62037-5.pdf

National, regional, and global trends in body-mass index since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 960 country-years and 9·1 million participants

Forecasts of life expectancy are an important component of public policy that influence age-based entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Although the Social Security Administration recently raised its estimates of how long Americans are going to live in the 21st century, current trends in obesity in the United States suggest that these estimates may not be accurate. From our analysis of the effect of obesity on longevity, we conclude that the steady rise in life expectancy during the past two centuries may soon come to an end.

http://sjayolshansky.com/sjo/Background_files/NEJM2005final.pdf

A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the United States in the 21st Century

Estimates of future life expectancy strongly influence public policy on age-based entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Although recent estimates of how long Americans will live in this century have predicted an increase, the authors believe that current trends in obesit

If humans were built to last.

Will life expectancy in the United States rise or fall in this century? The implications of either scenario are far reaching. We contend that the rise of childhood obesity in the United States in the past three decades has been so dramatic that it will soon lead to higher than expected death rates at middle ages and a possible decline in life expectancy by midcentury. The most detrimental health and longevity effects will not be seen for decades--a phenomenon that cannot be detected by current methods used to forecast life expectancy or estimate the number of deaths currently attributable to obesity. This scenario contrasts sharply with the views of mathematical demographers who generate forecasts by relying on the assumption that the U.S. pattern of longevity will follow that of other longer lived nations and on the extrapolation of historical trends in life expectancy into the future.

Robert N. Butler

Papers

A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the United States in the 21st Century

A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the United States in the 21st Century

If humans were built to last.

Misdirection on the road to Shangri-La.

If Humans were Built to Last