Roberta Calderwood

Bio: Roberta Calderwood is an academic researcher from Klein Associates. The author has contributed to research in topics: Decision analysis & Business decision mapping. The author has an hindex of 8, co-authored 9 publications receiving 1832 citations.

Critical decision method for eliciting knowledge

Abstract: A critical decision method is described for modeling tasks in naturalistic environments characterized by high time pressure, high information content, and changing conditions. The method is a variant of a J.C. Flanagan's (1954) critical incident technique extended to include probes that elicit aspects of expertise such as the basis for making perceptual discriminations, conceptual discriminations, typicality judgments, and critical cues. The method has been used to elicit domain knowledge from experienced personnel such as urban and wildland fireground commanders, tank platoon leaders, structural engineers, design engineers, paramedics, and computer programmers. A model of decision-making derived from these investigations is presented as the theoretical background to the methodology. Instruments and procedures for implementing the approach are described. Applications of the method include developing expert systems, evaluating expert systems' performance, identifying training requirements, and investigating basic decision research issues. >

Rapid Decision Making on the Fire Ground

Abstract: The objective of this study was to examine the way decisions are made by highly proficient personnel, under conditions of extreme time pressure, and where the consequences of the decisions could af...

Rapid Decision Making on the Fire Ground: The Original Study Plus a Postscript

Abstract: [This is an edited version of the original, unpublished 1985 study that identified recognition-primed decision making, with a new commentary added.] The objective of this study was to examine the w...

Decision models: some lessons from the field

Abstract: Studies of decision-making in such environments as nuclear power plants, urban fire departments, command-and-control centers, and courtrooms are discussed. The studies provide a different perspective on decision strategies from laboratory studies that rely on naive subjects performing relatively context-free tasks under little time pressure and static task conditions. The field research paradigms generate a description of proficient decision making that emphasizes recognitional rather than analytical processes and challenges the decision tree representation of decision problems-that is, failure to use analytical methods is not a sign of incompetence since the recognitional strategies shown by decision makers seem reasonable and effective. Implications of these models for decision-support systems and for training are discussed. >

Time Pressure, Skill, and Move Quality in Chess

Abstract: Etude utilisant une tâche minutee pour mettre a l'epreuve, dans le jeu d'echec, l'existence de differences dans les exigences temporelles des modes de traitement (reconnaissance, calcul) chez des joueurs de niveaux differents

Toward a Theory of Situation Awareness in Dynamic Systems

Abstract: This paper presents a theoretical model of situation awareness based on its role in dynamic human decision making in a variety of domains. Situation awareness is presented as a predominant concern in system operation, based on a descriptive view of decision making. The relationship between situation awareness and numerous individual and environmental factors is explored. Among these factors, attention and working memory are presented as critical factors limiting operators from acquiring and interpreting information from the environment to form situation awareness, and mental models and goal-directed behavior are hypothesized as important mechanisms for overcoming these limits. The impact of design features, workload, stress, system complexity, and automation on operator situation awareness is addressed, and a taxonomy of errors in situation awareness is introduced, based on the model presented. The model is used to generate design implications for enhancing operator situation awareness and future directio...

Naturalistic Decision Making

Abstract: Objective: This article describes the origins and contributions of the naturalistic decision making (NDM) research approach. Background: NDM research emerged in the 1980s to study how people make decisions in real-world settings. Method: The findings and methods used by NDM researchers are presented along with their implications. Results: The NDM framework emphasizes the role of experience in enabling people to rapidly categorize situations to make effective decisions. Conclusion: The NDM focus on field settings and its interest in complex conditions provide insights for human factors practitioners about ways to improve performance. Application: The NDM approach has been used to improve performance through revisions of military doctrine, training that is focused on decision requirements, and the development of information technologies to support decision making and related cognitive functions.

Expert and exceptional performance: evidence of maximal adaptation to task constraints.

Abstract: ▪ Abstract Expert and exceptional performance are shown to be mediated by cognitive and perceptual-motor skills and by domain-specific physiological and anatomical adaptations. The highest levels of human performance in different domains can only be attained after around ten years of extended, daily amounts of deliberate practice activities. Laboratory analyses of expert performance in many domains such as chess, medicine, auditing, computer programming, bridge, physics, sports, typing, juggling, dance, and music reveal maximal adaptations of experts to domain-specific constraints. For example, acquired anticipatory skills circumvent general limits on reaction time, and distinctive memory skills allow a domain-specific expansion of working memory capacity to support planning, reasoning, and evaluation. Many of the mechanisms of superior expert performance serve the dual purpose of mediating experts' current performance and of allowing continued improvement of this performance in response to informative fe...

Conditions for intuitive expertise: A failure to disagree.

Abstract: This article reports on an effort to explore the differences between two approaches to intuition and expertise that are often viewed as conflicting: heuristics and biases (HB) and naturalistic decision making (NDM). Starting from the obvious fact that professional intuition is sometimes marvelous and sometimes flawed, the authors attempt to map the boundary conditions that separate true intuitive skill from overconfident and biased impressions. They conclude that evaluating the likely quality of an intuitive judgment requires an assessment of the predictability of the environment in which the judgment is made and of the individual's opportunity to learn the regularities of that environment. Subjective experience is not a reliable indicator of judgment accuracy.

Decision Making in Action: Models and Methods

Abstract: This book describes the new perspective of naturalistic decision making. The point of departure is how people make decisions in complex, time-pressured, ambiguous, and changing environments. The purpose of this book is to present and elaborate on past models developed to explain this type of decision making. The central philosophy of the book is that classical decision theory has been unproductive since it is so heavily grounded in economics and mathematics. The contributors believe there is little to be learned from laboratory studies about how people actually handle difficult and interesting tasks; therefore, the book presents a critique of classical decision theory. The models of naturalistic decision making described by the contributors were derived to explain the behavior of firefighters, business people, jurors, nuclear power plant operators, and command-and-control officers. The models are unique in that they address the way people use experience to frame situations and adopt courses of action. The models explain the strengths of skilled decision makers. Naturalistic decision research requires the examination of field settings, and a section of the book covers methods for conducting meaningful research outside the laboratory. In addition, since his approach has applied value, the book covers issues of training and decision support systems.