Roger Bentley

TL;DR: The UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) as mentioned in this paper conducted an independent, thorough and systematic review of the evidence, with the aim of establishing the current state of knowledge, identifying key uncertainties and improving consensus.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors address the following question: "What evidence is there to support the proposition that the global supply of conventional oil will be constrained by physical depletion before 2030?" The report is based upon a thorough review of the current state of knowledge on oil depletion.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors combine geological knowledge with proved plus probable (2P) oil discovery data to show that over 60 countries are now past their resource-limited peak of conventional oil production and non-conventional oils are unlikely to come on-stream fast enough to offset conventional's decline.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compare and evaluate fourteen contemporary forecasts of global supply of conventional oil and provide some observations on their relative plausibility, and examine the impact of rates of discovery, reserves growth and depletion on the forecast date of peak and show how forecasts that delay this peak until beyond 2030 rest on assumptions that are at best optimistic and at worst implausible.

TL;DR: The authors summarized and evaluated the evidence regarding four issues that are considered to be of critical importance for future global oil supply, including how regional and global oil resources are distributed between different sizes of field, why estimates of the recoverable resources from individual fields tend to grow over time and the current and likely future contribution of this to global reserve additions, how rapidly the production from different categories of field is declining and how this may be expected to change in the future; and how the remaining recoverable resource in a field or region can be produced.