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Roger Koppl

Bio: Roger Koppl is an academic researcher from Syracuse University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Austrian School & Entrepreneurship. The author has an hindex of 27, co-authored 121 publications receiving 2487 citations. Previous affiliations of Roger Koppl include Trinity College (Connecticut) & Fairleigh Dickinson University.


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Reference EntryDOI
Roger Koppl1
01 Nov 2015

361 citations

Book
01 Jan 2002
TL;DR: In this paper, Mises Schutz Hayek discusses language games and economic theory with big players, including Ruble Angular Distribution and Money Demand Coda Appendices Index, and discusses big players.
Abstract: PART I: INTRODUCTION An Overview of the Book PART II: METHODOLOGY Mises Schutz Hayek PART III: THEORY Language Games and Economic Theory Expectations Big Players PART IV: APPLICATIONS Ruble Angular Distribution Money Demand Coda Appendices Index

193 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Sir: Observer effects are rooted in the universal human tendency to interpret data in a manner consistent with one’s expectations, and can result in false inclusions under not uncommon conditions of ambiguity encountered in actual casework.
Abstract: Sir: Observer effects are rooted in the universal human tendency to interpret data in a manner consistent with one’s expectations (1). This tendency is particularly likely to distort the results of a scientific test when the underlying data are ambiguous and the scientist is exposed to domain-irrelevant information that engages emotions or desires (2). Despite impressions to the contrary, forensic DNA analysts often must resolve ambiguities, particularly when interpreting difficult evidence samples such as those that contain mixtures of DNA from two or more individuals, degraded or inhibited DNA, or limited quantities of DNA template. The full potential of forensic DNA testing can only be realized if observer effects are minimized. We met on December 1 and 2, 2007 in Washington, D.C. to discuss the implications of observer effects in forensic DNA testing and ways to minimize them. The interpretation of an evidentiary DNA profile should not be influenced by information about a suspect’s DNA profile (3–6). Each item of evidence must be interpreted independently of other items of evidence or reference samples. Yet forensic analysts are commonly aware of submitted reference profiles when interpreting DNA test results, creating the opportunity for a confirmatory bias, despite the best intentions of the analyst. Furthermore, analysts are sometimes exposed to information about the suspects, such as their history or motives, eyewitness identifications, presence or absence of a confession, and the like. Such information should have no bearing on how the results of a DNA test are interpreted, yet may compound an unintentional confirmatory bias. This bias can result in false inclusions under not uncommon conditions of ambiguity encountered in actual casework. It can also render currently used frequency statistics or likelihood ratios misleading. These problems can be minimized by preventing analysts from knowing the profile of submitted references (i.e., known samples) when interpreting testing results from evidentiary (i.e., unknown or questioned) samples. The necessary filtering or masking of submitted reference profiles can be accomplished in several ways, perhaps most easily by sequencing the laboratory workflow such that evidentiary samples are interpreted, and the interpretation is fully documented, before reference samples are compared. A simple protocol would dictate a separation of tasks between a qualified individual familiar with case information (a case manager) and an analyst from whom domain-irrelevant information is masked. Such a protocol would have the following steps. First, the analyst interprets the results of testing on the evidentiary samples. In this initial interpretation, the analyst would perform the following:

154 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that the focus on bounded rationality and search is highly problematic for the fields of entrepreneurship and strategy and does not allow us to explain the origins of economic novelty.
Abstract: The nature of economic opportunity has recently received significant attention in entrepreneurship, organization science and strategy. The notion of boundedly rational search on an (NK) opportunity landscape has been particularly relevant to these conversations and debates. We argue that the focus on bounded rationality and search is highly problematic for the fields of entrepreneurship and strategy and does not allow us to explain the origins of economic novelty. We contrast the NP problem with the frame problem to illustrate our point, and highlight the role of adjacent possibilities and novel affordances. We discuss the entrepreneurial and economic implications of these arguments by building on unique insights from biology, the natural and computational sciences. Copyright © 2014 Strategic Management Society.

94 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors show that the orderliness of market processes and outcomes are dependent on the social environment in which individuals function and that the particular behaviors stemming from those expectations require a specification of the rules governing social and market activities.
Abstract: We show that the orderliness of market processes and outcomes, and hence the realization and coordination of individuals' plans, are dependent on the social environment in which individuals function. In specific, when atomicity and stable (social) rules are compromised in the case of Big Players, markets are less orderly despite the fact that individuals are behaving rationally.—The paper provides an account of individual rationality by generating a theory of expectations based on Hayek's cognitive theory. Hayekian expectations are coherent, competitive, and endogenous. This suggests that expectational analysis must take account of the context of constraint—the “environment” or what we call “filtering conditions”—within which individuals function and to which they must adapt. The paper provides a theoretical analysis of expectations at the individual level and shows that the particular behaviors stemming from those expectations require a specification of the rules governing social and market activities.

93 citations


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TL;DR: A theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification.
Abstract: Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

4,284 citations

30 Apr 1984
TL;DR: A review of the literature on optimal foraging can be found in this article, with a focus on the theoretical developments and the data that permit tests of the predictions, and the authors conclude that the simple models so far formulated are supported by available data and that they are optimistic about the value both now and in the future.
Abstract: Beginning with Emlen (1966) and MacArthur and Pianka (1966) and extending through the last ten years, several authors have sought to predict the foraging behavior of animals by means of mathematical models. These models are very similar,in that they all assume that the fitness of a foraging animal is a function of the efficiency of foraging measured in terms of some "currency" (Schoener, 1971) -usually energy- and that natural selection has resulted in animals that forage so as to maximize this fitness. As a result of these similarities, the models have become known as "optimal foraging models"; and the theory that embodies them, "optimal foraging theory." The situations to which optimal foraging theory has been applied, with the exception of a few recent studies, can be divided into the following four categories: (1) choice by an animal of which food types to eat (i.e., optimal diet); (2) choice of which patch type to feed in (i.e., optimal patch choice); (3) optimal allocation of time to different patches; and (4) optimal patterns and speed of movements. In this review we discuss each of these categories separately, dealing with both the theoretical developments and the data that permit tests of the predictions. The review is selective in the sense that we emphasize studies that either develop testable predictions or that attempt to test predictions in a precise quantitative manner. We also discuss what we see to be some of the future developments in the area of optimal foraging theory and how this theory can be related to other areas of biology. Our general conclusion is that the simple models so far formulated are supported are supported reasonably well by available data and that we are optimistic about the value both now and in the future of optimal foraging theory. We argue, however, that these simple models will requre much modification, espicially to deal with situations that either cannot easily be put into one or another of the above four categories or entail currencies more complicated that just energy.

2,709 citations

Book
29 Nov 2005

2,161 citations