Roland R. Draxler

Bio: Roland R. Draxler is an academic researcher from Air Resources Laboratory. The author has contributed to research in topics: HYSPLIT & Atmospheric dispersion modeling. The author has an hindex of 41, co-authored 92 publications receiving 11701 citations. Previous affiliations of Roland R. Draxler include Pennsylvania State University & National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

NOAA’s HYSPLIT Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Modeling System

Abstract: The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT), developed by NOAA’s Air Resources Laboratory, is one of the most widely used models for atmospheric trajectory and dispersion calculations. We present the model’s historical evolution over the last 30 years from simple hand-drawn back trajectories to very sophisticated computations of transport, mixing, chemical transformation, and deposition of pollutants and hazardous materials. We highlight recent applications of the HYSPLIT modeling system, including the simulation of atmospheric tracer release experiments, radionuclides, smoke originated from wild fires, volcanic ash, mercury, and wind-blown dust.

Root mean square error (RMSE) or mean absolute error (MAE)? – Arguments against avoiding RMSE in the literature

Abstract: . Both the root mean square error (RMSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE) are regularly employed in model evaluation studies. Willmott and Matsuura (2005) have suggested that the RMSE is not a good indicator of average model performance and might be a misleading indicator of average error, and thus the MAE would be a better metric for that purpose. While some concerns over using RMSE raised by Willmott and Matsuura (2005) and Willmott et al. (2009) are valid, the proposed avoidance of RMSE in favor of MAE is not the solution. Citing the aforementioned papers, many researchers chose MAE over RMSE to present their model evaluation statistics when presenting or adding the RMSE measures could be more beneficial. In this technical note, we demonstrate that the RMSE is not ambiguous in its meaning, contrary to what was claimed by Willmott et al. (2009). The RMSE is more appropriate to represent model performance than the MAE when the error distribution is expected to be Gaussian. In addition, we show that the RMSE satisfies the triangle inequality requirement for a distance metric, whereas Willmott et al. (2009) indicated that the sums-of-squares-based statistics do not satisfy this rule. In the end, we discussed some circumstances where using the RMSE will be more beneficial. However, we do not contend that the RMSE is superior over the MAE. Instead, a combination of metrics, including but certainly not limited to RMSEs and MAEs, are often required to assess model performance.

TrajStat: GIS-based software that uses various trajectory statistical analysis methods to identify potential sources from long-term air pollution measurement data

Abstract: Statistical analysis of air mass back trajectories combined with long-term ambient air pollution measurements are useful tools for source identification. Using these methods, the geographic information system (GIS) based software, TrajStat, was developed to view, query, and cluster the trajectories and compute the potential source contribution function (PSCF) and concentration weighted trajectory (CWT) analyses when measurement data are included.

Root mean square error (RMSE) or mean absolute error (MAE)

Abstract: Both the root mean square error (RMSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE) are regularly employed in model evaluation studies. Willmott and Matsuura(2005) have suggested that the RMSE is not a good indicator of average model performance and might be a misleading indicator of average error, and thus the MAE would be a better metric for that purpose. While some concerns over using RMSE raised by Willmott and Matsuura(2005) andWillmott et al. (2009) are valid, the proposed avoidance of RMSE in favor of MAE is not the solution. Citing the aforementioned papers, many researchers chose MAE over RMSE to present their model evaluation statistics when presenting or adding the RMSE measures could be more beneficial. In this technical note, we demonstrate that the RMSE is not ambiguous in its meaning, contrary to what was claimed by Willmott et al. (2009). The RMSE is more appropriate to represent model performance than the MAE when the error distribution is expected to be Gaussian. In addition, we show that the RMSE satisfies the triangle inequality requirement for a distance metric, whereasWillmott et al. (2009) indicated that the sums-ofsquares-based statistics do not satisfy this rule. In the end, we discussed some circumstances where using the RMSE will be more beneficial. However, we do not contend that the RMSE is superior over the MAE. Instead, a combination of metrics, including but certainly not limited to RMSEs and MAEs, are often required to assess model performance.

Occurrence of the potent mutagens 2- nitrobenzanthrone and 3-nitrobenzanthrone in fine airborne particles

Abstract: Polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs) are known due to their mutagenic activity. Among them, 2-nitrobenzanthrone (2-NBA) and 3-nitrobenzanthrone (3-NBA) are considered as two of the most potent mutagens found in atmospheric particles. In the present study 2-NBA, 3-NBA and selected PAHs and Nitro-PAHs were determined in fine particle samples (PM 2.5) collected in a bus station and an outdoor site. The fuel used by buses was a diesel-biodiesel (96:4) blend and light-duty vehicles run with any ethanol-to-gasoline proportion. The concentrations of 2-NBA and 3-NBA were, on average, under 14.8 µg g−1 and 4.39 µg g−1, respectively. In order to access the main sources and formation routes of these compounds, we performed ternary correlations and multivariate statistical analyses. The main sources for the studied compounds in the bus station were diesel/biodiesel exhaust followed by floor resuspension. In the coastal site, vehicular emission, photochemical formation and wood combustion were the main sources for 2-NBA and 3-NBA as well as the other PACs. Incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) were calculated for both places, which presented low values, showing low cancer risk incidence although the ILCR values for the bus station were around 2.5 times higher than the ILCR from the coastal site.

NOAA’s HYSPLIT Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Modeling System

Abstract: The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT), developed by NOAA’s Air Resources Laboratory, is one of the most widely used models for atmospheric trajectory and dispersion calculations. We present the model’s historical evolution over the last 30 years from simple hand-drawn back trajectories to very sophisticated computations of transport, mixing, chemical transformation, and deposition of pollutants and hazardous materials. We highlight recent applications of the HYSPLIT modeling system, including the simulation of atmospheric tracer release experiments, radionuclides, smoke originated from wild fires, volcanic ash, mercury, and wind-blown dust.

Numerical study of convection observed during the Winter Monsoon Experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model [presentation]

Abstract: Abstract A two-dimensional version of the Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model has been applied to Winter Monsoon Experiment data in order to simulate the diurnally occurring convection observed over the South China Sea. The domain includes a representation of part of Borneo as well as the sea so that the model can simulate the initiation of convection. Also included in the model are parameterizations of mesoscale ice phase and moisture processes and longwave and shortwave radiation with a diurnal cycle. This allows use of the model to test the relative importance of various heating mechanisms to the stratiform cloud deck, which typically occupies several hundred kilometers of the domain. Frank and Cohen's cumulus parameterization scheme is employed to represent vital unresolved vertical transports in the convective area. The major conclusions are: Ice phase processes are important in determining the level of maximum large-scale heating and vertical motion because there is a strong anvil componen...

An Overview of the HYSPLIT_4 Modelling System for Trajectories, Dispersion, and Deposition

Abstract: The HYSPLIT_4 (HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) model is designed for quick response to atmospheric emergencies, diagnostic case studies, or climatological analyses using previously gridded meteorological data. Calculations may be performed sequentially on multiple meteorological grids, going from fine to coarse resolution using either archive or forecast data fields. Air concentration calculations associate the mass of the pollutant species with the release of either puffs, particles, or a combination of both. The dispersion rate is calculated from the vertical diffusivity profile, wind shear, and horizontal deformation of the wind field. Air concentrations are calculated at a specific grid point for puffs and as cell-average concentrations for particles. The model results are evaluated against ACE balloon trajectories, air concentrations from the ANATEX tracer experiment, radiological deposition from the Chernobyl accident, and satellite photographs of the Rabaul volcanic eruption. One common feature of the model results was their sensitivity to the vertical atmospheric structure; trajectories in terms of their height when near ground-level due to the strong gradients of wind speed and direction, air concentrations with respect to the rate of vertical mixing, and deposition as a result of the vertical distribution of the pollutant.