Rosalind E. Howes

Bio: Rosalind E. Howes is an academic researcher from University of Oxford. The author has contributed to research in topics: Malaria & Plasmodium vivax. The author has an hindex of 33, co-authored 58 publications receiving 6241 citations. Previous affiliations of Rosalind E. Howes include Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics & Case Western Reserve University.

A global map of travel time to cities to assess inequalities in accessibility in 2015.

Abstract: The economic and man-made resources that sustain human wellbeing are not distributed evenly across the world, but are instead heavily concentrated in cities. Poor access to opportunities and services offered by urban centres (a function of distance, transport infrastructure, and the spatial distribution of cities) is a major barrier to improved livelihoods and overall development. Advancing accessibility worldwide underpins the equity agenda of 'leaving no one behind' established by the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations. This has renewed international efforts to accurately measure accessibility and generate a metric that can inform the design and implementation of development policies. The only previous attempt to reliably map accessibility worldwide, which was published nearly a decade ago, predated the baseline for the Sustainable Development Goals and excluded the recent expansion in infrastructure networks, particularly in lower-resource settings. In parallel, new data sources provided by Open Street Map and Google now capture transportation networks with unprecedented detail and precision. Here we develop and validate a map that quantifies travel time to cities for 2015 at a spatial resolution of approximately one by one kilometre by integrating ten global-scale surfaces that characterize factors affecting human movement rates and 13,840 high-density urban centres within an established geospatial-modelling framework. Our results highlight disparities in accessibility relative to wealth as 50.9% of individuals living in low-income settings (concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa) reside within an hour of a city compared to 90.7% of individuals in high-income settings. By further triangulating this map against socioeconomic datasets, we demonstrate how access to urban centres stratifies the economic, educational, and health status of humanity.

A long neglected world malaria map: Plasmodium vivax endemicity in 2010.

Abstract: Background: Current understanding of the spatial epidemiology and geographical distribution of Plasmodium vivax is far less developed than that for P. falciparum, representing a barrier to rational strategies for control and elimination. Here we present the first systematic effort to map the global endemicity of this hitherto neglected parasite. Methodology and Findings: We first updated to the year 2010 our earlier estimate of the geographical limits of P. vivax transmission. Within areas of stable transmission, an assembly of 9,970 geopositioned P. vivax parasite rate (PvPR) surveys collected from 1985 to 2010 were used with a spatiotemporal Bayesian model-based geostatistical approach to estimate endemicity age-standardised to the 1–99 year age range (PvPR1–99) within every 565 km resolution grid square. The model incorporated data on Duffy negative phenotype frequency to suppress endemicity predictions, particularly in Africa. Endemicity was predicted within a relatively narrow range throughout the endemic world, with the point estimate rarely exceeding 7% PvPR1–99. The Americas contributed 22% of the global area at risk of P. vivax transmission, but high endemic areas were generally sparsely populated and the region contributed only 6% of the 2.5 billion people at risk (PAR) globally. In Africa, Duffy negativity meant stable transmission was constrained to Madagascar and parts of the Horn, contributing 3.5% of global PAR. Central Asia was home to 82% of global PAR with important high endemic areas coinciding with dense populations particularly in India and Myanmar. South East Asia contained areas of the highest endemicity in Indonesia and Papua New Guinea and contributed 9% of global PAR.

Global distribution of the sickle cell gene and geographical confirmation of the malaria hypothesis

Abstract: It has been 100 years since the first report of sickle haemoglobin (HbS). More than 50 years ago, it was suggested that the gene responsible for this disorder could reach high frequencies because of resistance conferred against malaria by the heterozygous carrier state. This traditional example of balancing selection is known as the 'malaria hypothesis'. However, the geographical relationship between the transmission intensity of malaria and associated HbS burden has never been formally investigated on a global scale. Here, we use a comprehensive data assembly of HbS allele frequencies to generate the first evidence-based map of the worldwide distribution of the gene in a Bayesian geostatistical framework. We compare this map with the pre-intervention distribution of malaria endemicity, using a novel geostatistical area-mean comparison. We find geographical support for the malaria hypothesis globally; the relationship is relatively strong in Africa but cannot be resolved in the Americas or in Asia.

The global distribution and burden of dengue

Abstract: Dengue is a systemic viral infection transmitted between humans by Aedes mosquitoes. For some patients, dengue is a life-threatening illness. There are currently no licensed vaccines or specific therapeutics, and substantial vector control efforts have not stopped its rapid emergence and global spread. The contemporary worldwide distribution of the risk of dengue virus infection and its public health burden are poorly known. Here we undertake an exhaustive assembly of known records of dengue occurrence worldwide, and use a formal modelling framework to map the global distribution of dengue risk. We then pair the resulting risk map with detailed longitudinal information from dengue cohort studies and population surfaces to infer the public health burden of dengue in 2010. We predict dengue to be ubiquitous throughout the tropics, with local spatial variations in risk influenced strongly by rainfall, temperature and the degree of urbanization. Using cartographic approaches, we estimate there to be 390 million (95% credible interval 284-528) dengue infections per year, of which 96 million (67-136) manifest apparently (any level of disease severity). This infection total is more than three times the dengue burden estimate of the World Health Organization. Stratification of our estimates by country allows comparison with national dengue reporting, after taking into account the probability of an apparent infection being formally reported. The most notable differences are discussed. These new risk maps and infection estimates provide novel insights into the global, regional and national public health burden imposed by dengue. We anticipate that they will provide a starting point for a wider discussion about the global impact of this disease and will help to guide improvements in disease control strategies using vaccine, drug and vector control methods, and in their economic evaluation.

The effect of malaria control on Plasmodium falciparum in Africa between 2000 and 2015

Abstract: Since the year 2000, a concerted campaign against malaria has led to unprecedented levels of intervention coverage across sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding the effect of this control effort is vital to inform future control planning. However, the effect of malaria interventions across the varied epidemiological settings of Africa remains poorly understood owing to the absence of reliable surveillance data and the simplistic approaches underlying current disease estimates. Here we link a large database of malaria field surveys with detailed reconstructions of changing intervention coverage to directly evaluate trends from 2000 to 2015, and quantify the attributable effect of malaria disease control efforts. We found that Plasmodium falciparum infection prevalence in endemic Africa halved and the incidence of clinical disease fell by 40% between 2000 and 2015. We estimate that interventions have averted 663 (542-753 credible interval) million clinical cases since 2000. Insecticide-treated nets, the most widespread intervention, were by far the largest contributor (68% of cases averted). Although still below target levels, current malaria interventions have substantially reduced malaria disease incidence across the continent. Increasing access to these interventions, and maintaining their effectiveness in the face of insecticide and drug resistance, should form a cornerstone of post-2015 control strategies.

Refining the global spatial limits of dengue virus transmission by evidence-based consensus

Abstract: Background: Dengue is a growing problem both in its geographical spread and in its intensity, and yet current global distribution remains highly uncertain. Challenges in diagnosis and diagnostic methods as well as highly variable national health systems mean no single data source can reliably estimate the distribution of this disease. As such, there is a lack of agreement on national dengue status among international health organisations. Here we bring together all available information on dengue occurrence using a novel approach to produce an evidence consensus map of the disease range that highlights nations with an uncertain dengue status. Methods/Principal Findings: A baseline methodology was used to assess a range of evidence for each country. In regions where dengue status was uncertain, additional evidence types were included to either clarify dengue status or confirm that it is unknown at this time. An algorithm was developed that assesses evidence quality and consistency, giving each country an evidence consensus score. Using this approach, we were able to generate a contemporary global map of national-level dengue status that assigns a relative measure of certainty and identifies gaps in the available evidence. Conclusion: The map produced here provides a list of 128 countries for which there is good evidence of dengue occurrence, including 36 countries that have previously been classified as dengue-free by the World Health Organization and/or the US Centers for Disease Control. It also identifies disease surveillance needs, which we list in full. The disease extents and limits determined here using evidence consensus, marks the beginning of a five-year study to advance the mapping of dengue virus transmission and disease risk. Completion of this first step has allowed us to produce a preliminary estimate of population at risk with an upper bound of 3.97 billion people. This figure will be refined in future work.