Run-Lie Shia

Bio: Run-Lie Shia is an academic researcher. The author has contributed to research in topics: Solid-fuel rocket & Ozone layer. The author has an hindex of 3, co-authored 6 publications receiving 416 citations.

Evaluation and intercomparison of global atmospheric transport models using 222Rn and other short-lived tracers

Abstract: Simulations of 222Rn and other short-lived tracers are used to evaluate and intercompare the representations of convective and synoptic processes in 20 global atmospheric transport models. Results show that most established three-dimensional models simulate vertical mixing in the troposphere to within the constraints offered by the observed mean 222Rn concentrations and that subgrid parameterization of convection is essential for this purpose. However, none of the models captures the observed variability of 222Rn concentrations in the upper troposphere, and none reproduces the high 222Rn concentrations measured at 200 hPa over Hawaii. The established three-dimensional models reproduce the frequency and magnitude of high-222Rn episodes observed at Crozet Island in the Indian Ocean, demonstrating that they can resolve the synoptic-scale transport of continental plumes with no significant numerical diffusion. Large differences between models are found in the rates of meridional transport in the upper troposphere (interhemispheric exchange, exchange between tropics and high latitudes). The four two-dimensional models which participated in the intercomparison tend to underestimate the rate of vertical transport from the lower to the upper troposphere but show concentrations of 222Rn in the lower troposphere that are comparable to the zonal mean values in the three-dimensional models.

Global Simulation of Atmospheric Mercury Concentrations and Deposition Fluxes. Appendix Q

Abstract: Results from a numerical model of the global emissions, transport, chemistry, and deposition of mercury (Hg) in the atmosphere are presented. Hg (in the form of Hg(0) and Hg(II)) is emitted into the atmosphere from natural and anthropogenic sources (estimated to be 4000 and 2100 Mg yr−1, respectively). It is distributed between gaseous, aqueous and particulate phases. Removal of Hg from the atmosphere occurs via dry deposition and wet deposition, which are calculated by the model to be 3300 and 2800 Mg yr−1, respectively. Deposition on land surfaces accounts for 47% of total global deposition. The simulated Hg ambient surface concentrations and deposition fluxes to the Earth's surface are consistent with available observations. Observed spatial and seasonal trends are reproduced by the model, although larger spatial variations are observed in Hg(0) surface concentrations than are predicted by the model. The calculated atmospheric residence time of Hg is ∼1.7 years. Chemical transformations between Hg(0) and Hg(II) have a strong influence on Hg deposition patterns because Hg(II) is removed faster than Hg(0). Oxidation of Hg(0) to Hg(II) occurs primarily in the gas phase, whereas Hg(II) reduction to Hg(0) occurs solely in the aqueous phase. Our model results indicated that in the absence of the aqueous reactions the atmospheric residence time of Hg is reduced to 1.2 from 1.7 years and the Hg surface concentration is ∼25% lower because of the absence of the Hg(II) reduction pathway. This result suggests that aqueous chemistry is an essential component of the atmospheric cycling of Hg.

Global stratospheric effects of the alumina emissions by solid-fueled rocket motors

Abstract: We simulate accumulation of Al2O3 particles in the atmosphere produced by solid-fueled rocket motors by using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies/University of California at Irvine three-dimensional (3-D) chemistry-transport model (CTM). Our study differs from Jackman et al. (1998) by applying a 3-D CTM, considering 13 size bins for the emitted particles from 0.025 to 10 μm and taking into account their washout, gravitational sedimentation, and coagulation with background sulfate aerosol. We assume an initial trimodal size distribution of Al2O3 particles (Beiting, 1997) with 2.8% by mass of the alumina emitted as particles with radius of less than 1 μm. Our test case adopts a stratospheric source of 1120 tons/yr equivalent to nine space Shuttle and four Titan IV launches annually. The calculated steady state surface area density (SAD) and mass density for the scenarios with sedimentation of alumina particles have maximum values in the lower stratosphere in the Northern Hemisphere of up to 7×10−4 μm2/cm3 and 0.09 ng/m3, respectively, or about 1000 times smaller than those of the background sulfate aerosol. Our results are sensitive to the emitted mass fractionation of alumina (EMFA) showing the values for the SAD or mass density higher or lower by an order of magnitude owing to a poorly known EMFA. Chemical implications of alumina particle accumulation for the ozone balance are estimated by using the Atmospheric and Environmental Research 2-D model assuming chlorine activation on Al2O3 surfaces via the C1ONO2 + HCl → Cl2 + HNO3 reaction with a probability of 0.02 (Molina et al., 1997). Owing to the very small Al2O3 SAD, any additional ozone depletion due to Al2O3 emissions is also small (0.0028% on a global annually averaged basis for the scenario with sedimentation, or about 4 times smaller than the ozone response to chlorine emissions only). The ozone depletion potential of the alumina emissions is about 0.03–0.08 for the scenarios using the EMFA of Beiting (1997) and larger by an order of magnitude for the EMFA of Brady and Martin (1995).

Global Stratospheric Impact of Solid Rocket Motor Launchers

Abstract: : We used the GISS/Harvard/UCI3-D CTM on the AER computer platform to perform a number of simulations to obtain the surface area from accumulation of A12O3 particulates from solid rocket motors (SRM), orbital debris, and meteorites. In the calculation, the initial size distribution of the particulates emitted by SRM is represented by a tn-modal distribution with bulk density of 1.7 gm/cm. It is assumed that particles do not interact with each other so that particles in each size bin will evolve independently.

Model Assessment of the Impact on Ozone of Subsonic and Supersonic Aircraft

Abstract: This is the final report for work performed between June 1999 through May 2000. The work represents continuation of the previous contract which encompasses five areas: (1) continued refinements and applications of the 2-D chemistry-transport model (CTM) to assess the ozone effects from aircraft operation in the stratosphere; (2) studying the mechanisms that determine the evolution of the sulfur species in the aircraft plume and how such mechanisms affect the way aircraft sulfur emissions should be introduced into global models; (3) the development of diagnostics in the AER 3-wave interactive model to assess the importance of the dynamics feedback and zonal asymmetry in model prediction of ozone response to aircraft operation; (4) the development of a chemistry parameterization scheme in support of the global modeling initiative (GMI); and (5) providing assessment results for preparation of national and international reports which include the "Aviation and the Global Atmosphere" prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "Assessment of the effects of high-speed aircraft in the stratosphere: 1998" by NASA, and the "Model and Measurements Intercomparison II" by NASA. Part of the work was reported in the final report. We participated in the SAGE III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE) campaign and we continue with our analyses of the data.

Global modeling of tropospheric chemistry with assimilated meteorology : Model description and evaluation

Abstract: We present a first description and evaluation of GEOS-CHEM, a global three-dimensional (3-D) model of tropospheric chemistry driven by assimilated meteorological observations from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) of the NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO). The model is applied to a 1-year simulation of tropospheric ozone-NOx-hydrocarbon chemistry for 1994, and is evaluated with observations both for 1994 and for other years. It reproduces usually to within 10 ppb the concentrations of ozone observed from the worldwide ozonesonde data network. It simulates correctly the seasonal phases and amplitudes of ozone concentrations for different regions and altitudes, but tends to underestimate the seasonal amplitude at northern midlatitudes. Observed concentrations of NO and peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN) observed in aircraft campaigns are generally reproduced to within a factor of 2 and often much better. Concentrations of HNO3 in the remote troposphere are overestimated typically by a factor of 2-3, a common problem in global models that may reflect a combination of insufficient precipitation scavenging and gas-aerosol partitioning not resolved by the model. The model yields an atmospheric lifetime of methylchloroform (proxy for global OH) of 5.1 years, as compared to a best estimate from observations of 5.5 plus or minus 0.8 years, and simulates H2O2 concentrations observed from aircraft with significant regional disagreements but no global bias. The OH concentrations are approximately 20% higher than in our previous global 3-D model which included an UV-absorbing aerosol. Concentrations of CO tend to be underestimated by the model, often by 10-30 ppb, which could reflect a combination of excessive OH (a 20% decrease in model OH could be accommodated by the methylchloroform constraint) and an underestimate of CO sources (particularly biogenic). The model underestimates observed acetone concentrations over the South Pacific in fall by a factor of 3; a missing source from the ocean may be implicated.

Multimodel ensemble simulations of present-day and near-future tropospheric ozone

Abstract: Global tropospheric ozone distributions, budgets, and radiative forcings from an ensemble of 26 state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models have been intercompared and synthesized as part of a wider study into both the air quality and climate roles of ozone. Results from three 2030 emissions scenarios, broadly representing optimistic, likely, and pessimistic options, are compared to a base year 2000 simulation. This base case realistically represents the current global distribution of tropospheric ozone. A further set of simulations considers the influence of climate change over the same time period by forcing the central emissions scenario with a surface warming of around 0.7K. The use of a large multimodel ensemble allows us to identify key areas of uncertainty and improves the robustness of the results. Ensemble mean changes in tropospheric ozone burden between 2000 and 2030 for the 3 scenarios range from a 5% decrease, through a 6% increase, to a 15% increase. The intermodel uncertainty (±1 standard deviation) associated with these values is about ±25%. Model outliers have no significant influence on the ensemble mean results. Combining ozone and methane changes, the three scenarios produce radiative forcings of -50, 180, and 300 mW m-2, compared to a CO 2 forcing over the same time period of 800-1100 mW m-2. These values indicate the importance of air pollution emissions in short- to medium-term climate forcing and the potential for stringent/lax control measures to improve/worsen future climate forcing. The model sensitivity of ozone to imposed climate change varies between models but modulates zonal mean mixing ratios by ±5 ppbv via a variety of feedback mechanisms, in particular those involving water vapor and stratosphere-troposphere exchange. This level of climate change also reduces the methane lifetime by around 4%. The ensemble mean year 2000 tropospheric ozone budget indicates chemical production, chemical destruction, dry deposition and stratospheric input fluxes of 5100, 4650, 1000 and 550 Tg(O 3 ) yr-1, respectively. These values are significantly different to the mean budget documented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (TAR). The mean ozone burden (340 Tg(O 3 )) is 10% larger than the IPCC TAR estimate, while the mean ozone lifetime (22 days) is 10% shorter. Results from individual models show a correlation between ozone burden and lifetime, and each model's ozone burden and lifetime respond in similar ways across the emissions scenarios. The response to climate change is much less consistent. Models show more variability in the tropics compared to midlatitudes. Some of the most uncertain areas of the models include treatments of deep tropical convection, including lightning NO x production; isoprene emissions from vegetation and isoprene's degradation chemistry; stratosphere-troposphere exchange; biomass burning; and water vapor concentrations. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Visibility: Science and Regulation

Abstract: The 1999 Regional Haze Rule provides a context for this review of visibility, the science that describes it, and the use of that science in regulatory guidance The scientific basis for the 1999 regulation is adequate The deciview metric that tracks progress is an imperfect but objective measure of what people see near the prevailing visual range The definition of natural visibility conditions is adequate for current planning, but it will need to be refined as visibility improves Emissions from other countries will set achievable levels above those produced by natural sources Some natural events, notably dust storms and wildfires, are episodic and cannot be represented by annual average background values or emission estimates Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission reductions correspond with lower sulfate (SO4 2−) concentrations and visibility im-provements in the regions where these have occurred Non-road emissions have been growing more rapidly than emissions from other sources, which have remained

A Synthesis of Progress and Uncertainties in Attributing the Sources of Mercury in Deposition

Abstract: A panel of international experts was convened in Madison, Wisconsin, in 2005, as part of the 8th International Conference on Mercury as a Global Pollutant. Our charge was to address the state of science pertinent to source attribution, specifically our key question was: "For a given location, can we ascertain with confidence the relative contributions of local, regional, and global sources, and of natural versus anthropogenic emissions to mercury deposition?" The panel synthesized new research pertinent to this question published over the past decade, with emphasis on four major research topics: long-term anthropogenic change, current emission and deposition trends, chemical transformations and cycling, and modeling and uncertainty. Within each topic, the panel drew a series of conclusions, which are presented in this paper. These conclusions led us to concur that the answer to our question is a "qualified yes," with the qualification being dependent upon the level of uncertainty one is willing to accept. We agreed that the uncertainty is strongly dependent upon scale and that our question as stated is answerable with greater confidence both very near and very far from major point sources, assuming that the "global pool" is a recognizable "source." Many regions of interest from an ecosystem-exposure standpoint lie in between, where source attribution carries the greatest degree of uncertainty.

Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases

Abstract: Chapter 4 of the IPCC Third Assessment Report Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Sections include: Executive Summary 2414.1 Introduction 2434.2 Trace Gases: Current Observations, Trends and Budgets 2484.3 Projections of Future Emissions 2664.4 Projections of Atmospheric Composition for the 21st Century 2674.5 Open Questions 2774.6 Overall Impact of Global Atmospheric Chemistry Change 279