Abstract A two-dimensional version of the Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model has been applied to Winter Monsoon Experiment data in order to simulate the diurnally occurring convection observed over the South China Sea. The domain includes a representation of part of Borneo as well as the sea so that the model can simulate the initiation of convection. Also included in the model are parameterizations of mesoscale ice phase and moisture processes and longwave and shortwave radiation with a diurnal cycle. This allows use of the model to test the relative importance of various heating mechanisms to the stratiform cloud deck, which typically occupies several hundred kilometers of the domain. Frank and Cohen's cumulus parameterization scheme is employed to represent vital unresolved vertical transports in the convective area. The major conclusions are: Ice phase processes are important in determining the level of maximum large-scale heating and vertical motion because there is a strong anvil componen...

Numerical study of convection observed during the Winter Monsoon Experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model [presentation]

. Southern Asia, extending from Pakistan and Afghanistan to Indonesia and Papua New Guinea, is one of the most heavily populated regions of the world. Biofuel and biomass burning play a disproportionately large role in the emissions of most key pollutant gases and aerosols there, in contrast to much of the rest of the Northern Hemisphere, where fossil fuel burning and industrial processes tend to dominate. This results in polluted air masses which are enriched in carbon-containing aerosols, carbon monoxide, and hydrocarbons. The outflow and long-distance transport of these polluted air masses is characterized by three distinct seasonal circulation patterns: the winter monsoon, the summer monsoon, and the monsoon transition periods. During winter, the near-surface flow is mostly northeasterly, and the regional pollution forms a thick haze layer in the lower troposphere which spreads out over millions of square km between southern Asia and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), located several degrees south of the equator over the Indian Ocean during this period. During summer, the heavy monsoon rains effectively remove soluble gases and aerosols. Less soluble species, on the other hand, are lifted to the upper troposphere in deep convective clouds, and are then transported away from the region by strong upper tropospheric winds, particularly towards northern Africa and the Mediterranean in the tropical easterly jet. Part of the pollution can reach the tropical tropopause layer, the gateway to the stratosphere. During the monsoon transition periods, the flow across the Indian Ocean is primarily zonal, and strong pollution plumes originating from both southeastern Asia and from Africa spread across the central Indian Ocean. This paper provides a review of the current state of knowledge based on the many observational and modeling studies over the last decades that have examined the southern Asian atmospheric pollutant outflow and its large scale effects. An outlook is provided as a guideline for future research, pointing out particularly critical issues such as: resolving discrepancies between top down and bottom up emissions estimates; assessing the processing and aging of the pollutant outflow; developing a better understanding of the observed elevated pollutant layers and their relationship to local sea breeze and large scale monsoon circulations; and determining the impacts of the pollutant outflow on the Asian monsoon meteorology and the regional hydrological cycle, in particular the mountain cryospheric reservoirs and the fresh water supply, which in turn directly impact the lives of over a billion inhabitants of southern Asia.

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Atmospheric pollutant outflow from southern Asia: a review

Radar in Meteorology

Two new approaches are proposed and developed for making time and space dependent, quantitative short-term forecasts of lightning threat, and a blend of these approaches is devised that capitalizes on the strengths of each. The new methods are distinctive in that they are based entirely on the ice-phase hydrometeor fields generated by regional cloud-resolving numerical simulations, such as those produced by the WRF model. These methods are justified by established observational evidence linking aspects of the precipitating ice hydrometeor fields to total flash rates. The methods are straightforward and easy to implement, and offer an effective near-term alternative to the incorporation of complex and costly cloud electrification schemes into numerical models. One method is based on upward fluxes of precipitating ice hydrometeors in the mixed phase region at the-15 C level, while the second method is based on the vertically integrated amounts of ice hydrometeors in each model grid column. Each method can be calibrated by comparing domain-wide statistics of the peak values of simulated flash rate proxy fields against domain-wide peak total lightning flash rate density data from observations. Tests show that the first method is able to capture much of the temporal variability of the lightning threat, while the second method does a better job of depicting the areal coverage of the threat. Our blended solution is designed to retain most of the temporal sensitivity of the first method, while adding the improved spatial coverage of the second. Exploratory tests for selected North Alabama cases show that, because WRF can distinguish the general character of most convective events, our methods show promise as a means of generating quantitatively realistic fields of lightning threat. However, because the models tend to have more difficulty in predicting the instantaneous placement of storms, forecasts of the detailed location of the lightning threat based on single simulations can be in error. Although these model shortcomings presently limit the precision of lightning threat forecasts from individual runs of current generation models,the techniques proposed herein should continue to be applicable as newer and more accurate physically-based model versions, physical parameterizations, initialization techniques and ensembles of forecasts become available.

Forecasting lightning threat using cloud- resolving model simulations

While the demand for enhancing rainfall through cloud seeding is strong and persistent in the country, considerable uncertainty exists on the success of such an endeavour at a given location To understand the pathways of aerosol-cloud interaction through which this might be achieved, a national experiment named Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement EXperiment (CAIPEEX) in two phases, was carried out The rationale of CAIPEEX, the strategy for conducting the experiment, data quality and potential for path-breaking science are described in this article Pending completion of quality control and calibration of the CAIPEEX phase-II data, here we present some initial results of CAIPEEX phase-I aimed at documenting the prevailing microphysical characteristics of aerosols and clouds and associated environmental conditions over different regions of the country and under different monsoon conditions with the help of an instrumented research aircraft First-time simultaneous observations of aerosol, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) over the Ganges Valley during monsoon season show very high concentrations (> 1000 cm-3) of CCN at elevated layers Observations of elevated layers with high aerosol concentration over the Gangetic valley extending up to 6 km and relatively less aerosol concentration in the boundary layer are also documented We also present evidence of strong cloud- aerosol interaction in the moist environments with an increase in the cloud droplet effective radius Our observations also show that pollution increases CDNC and the warm rain depth, and delays its initiation The critical effective radius for warm rain initiation is found to be between 10 and 12 I¼m in the polluted clouds and it is between 12 and 14 I¼m in cleaner monsoon clouds

The cloud aerosol interaction and precipitation enhancement experiment (CAIPEEX): Overview and preliminary results

In an attempt to unravel the interactions between cloud microphysics and dynamics that make shallow clouds precipitate heavily in this region, some unique observations of rain and cloud microphysical parameters are presented here from two stations, Pune and Mahabaleshwar, one each on the lee and windward sides, respectively, of the Western Ghat (WG) mountains in peninsular India. To elucidate rain microphysics, we used the raindrop size distribution (DSD) by fitting three parameter Gamma functions to the observed raindrop spectra. Over Pune, during stratiform rain with bright band (BB) at 0°C isotherm; concave upward DSD shapes are observed below the BB which becomes concave downward at lower altitudes. It is due to breakup process of large raindrops which increases drop concentration at midsizes suggesting coalescence, collision, and breakup processes. Both slope and intercept parameters of Gamma DSD decrease during no BB condition as altitudes decrease, signifying collision and coalescence processes. Over Mahabaleshwar, bimodal and monomodal DSD are observed during light and heavy rainfall, respectively. With shallow storm heights, small raindrops mainly contribute to both types of rainfall. The DSDs are parameterized, and their radar reflectivity factor-rainfall intensity relationships are evaluated suggesting the dominance of collision-coalescence processes. Aircraft measurements of orographic clouds over the WG suggest interaction of cloud mass with the ambient updraft speed. The orographically forced updrafts foster rapid condensational growth of cloud droplets triggering coalescence process within few hundred meters of cloud depth. Hence, these clouds are dynamically forced to produce precipitation over the WG.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2014JD021606

Microphysics of clouds and rain over the Western Ghat

Raindrop size distribution of different cloud types over the Western Ghats using simultaneous measurements from Micro-Rain Radar and disdrometer

X-band radar observations at Mandhardev (18.04°N, 73.85°E) are used to investigate statistics of convective clouds over the Western Ghats during monsoon season (June-September, 2014). Convective storms (cells) are identified using an objective-tracking method to examine their spatio-temporal variability, thus quantifying the time continuous aspects of convective cloud population over the region for the first time. An increased frequency of storm location and initiation along the windward mountains compared to coastal and lee side highlights orographic response to southwesterly flow, with superimposed diurnal cycle. An eastward progression of convective activity from upstream the barrier through windward slopes of mountains over to the lee side is observed. Storm area, height and duration follow lognormal distributions; wherein, small-sized storms contribute more to total population and unimodal distribution of 35-dBZ top heights (peaking at 5.5 km) depicts the dominance of shallow convection. Storms exhibit a pronounced diurnal cycle with a peak in afternoon hours, while the convective area maximum is delayed by several hours to that of precipitation flux. Cell lifetime and propagation show that cells move with slow speeds and have mean duration of 46 minutes. They align east-west nearly parallel to mountain ridges and their direction of movement is steered mostly by large-scale winds at lower levels. Based on top heights, convective cells are further classified into cumulus, congestus and deep clouds. In general, congestus (deep) cells are most abundant in the windward (leeward) side. A lead-lag relationship between congestus and deep cells indicates midtroposphere-moistening by congestus cells prior to deep convection.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2016JD026183

Statistical Characteristics of Convective Clouds over the Western Ghats Derived from Weather Radar Observations

Accurate and real-time precipitation estimation is a challenging task for current and future space-borne measurements, which is essential to understand the global hydrological cycle. Recently, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellites were launched as a next-generation rainfall mission for observing the global precipitation characteristics. The purpose of the GPM is to enhance the spatio-temporal resolution of global precipitation. The main objective of the present study is to assess the rainfall products from the GPM, especially the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the GPM (IMERG) data by comparing with the ground-based observations. The multi temporal scale evaluations of rainfall involving sub-daily, diurnal, monthly, and seasonal scales were performed over the Indian subcontinent. The comparison shows that the IMERG performed better than the TRMM-3B42, although both rainfall products underestimated the observed rainfall compared to the ground-based measurements. The analyses also reveal that the TRMM-3B42 and IMERG data sets are able to represent the large-scale monsoon rainfall spatial features, but are having region-specific biases. The IMERG shows significant improvement in low rainfall estimates compared to the TRMM-3B42 for selected regions. In the spatial distribution, the IMERG shows higher rain rates compared to the TRMM-3B42, due to its enhanced spatial and temporal resolution. Apart from this, the characteristics of raindrop size distribution (DSD) obtained from the GPM mission dual-frequency precipitation radar (DPR) is assessed over the complex mountain terrain site in the Western Ghats, India using the DSD measured by a Joss-Waldvogel disdrometer.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2017EA000285

The Assessment of Global Precipitation Measurement estimates over the Indian Subcontinent

Doppler wind lidar measurements of horizontal winds at an Indian tropical station, Mahbubnagar (16.73°N, 77.98°E, 445 m above mean sea level), were used to investigate the time evolution of the monsoon low-level jet (MLLJ) during the southwest monsoon season. Vertical profiles of zonal wind in the altitude range of 100 to 3000 m above surface (at every 50 m height interval and 5 min time averaged) obtained during the period 25 July to 23 August 2011 are considered for the analysis. The zonal winds in the altitude up to 3000 m above ground are predominantly westerly throughout the period and on almost all the days there is a westerly wind speed maximum around 500 m above ground during nighttime. Soon after local sunrise, the core of this wind speed maximum (jet) gets lifted up and by afternoon, the westerly wind maximum is shifted to a higher altitude of 2000 m–2500 m without much change in its magnitude. Analysis of the high-resolution lidar data strongly indicates that the same nocturnal LLJ seems to be moving up and evolving into a daytime westerly MLLJ reported in several previous studies. Wind speed and direction derived from the wind lidar agree reasonably well with simultaneously observed GPS upper air sounding wind measurements. Further analysis shows that the time-height evolution of the jet core is closely associated with daytime convection and boundary layer growth. The presence of clouds over the region seems to inhibit this type of time evolution.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2013JD020752

Time evolution of monsoon low‐level jet observed over an Indian tropical station during the peak monsoon period from high‐resolution Doppler wind lidar measurements

Sachin M. Deshpande

Papers

Microphysics of clouds and rain over the Western Ghat

Raindrop size distribution of different cloud types over the Western Ghats using simultaneous measurements from Micro-Rain Radar and disdrometer

Statistical Characteristics of Convective Clouds over the Western Ghats Derived from Weather Radar Observations

The Assessment of Global Precipitation Measurement estimates over the Indian Subcontinent

Time evolution of monsoon low‐level jet observed over an Indian tropical station during the peak monsoon period from high‐resolution Doppler wind lidar measurements