Sagynbek Orunbaev

Bio: Sagynbek Orunbaev is an academic researcher. The author has contributed to research in topics: Crust & Subduction. The author has an hindex of 11, co-authored 21 publications receiving 549 citations.

Geometry of the Pamir-Hindu Kush intermediate-depth earthquake zone from local seismic data

Abstract: [1] We present new seismicity images based on a two-year seismic deployment in the Pamir and SW Tien Shan. A total of 9532 earthquakes were detected, located, and rigorously assessed in a multistage automatic procedure utilizing state-of-the-art picking algorithms, waveform cross-correlation, and multi-event relocation. The obtained catalog provides new information on crustal seismicity and reveals the geometry and internal structure of the Pamir-Hindu Kush intermediate-depth seismic zone with improved detail and resolution. The relocated seismicity clearly defines at least two distinct planes: one beneath the Pamir and the other beneath the Hindu Kush, separated by a gap across which strike and dip directions change abruptly. The Pamir seismic zone forms a thin (approximately 10 km width), curviplanar arc that strikes east-west and dips south at its eastern end and then progressively turns by 90° to reach a north-south strike and a due eastward dip at its southwestern termination. Pamir deep seismicity outlines several streaks at depths between 70 and 240 km, with the deepest events occurring at its southwestern end. Intermediate-depth earthquakes are clearly separated from shallow crustal seismicity, which is confined to the uppermost 20–25 km. The Hindu Kush seismic zone extends from 40 to 250 km depth and generally strikes east-west, yet bends northeast, toward the Pamir, at its eastern end. It may be divided vertically into upper and lower parts separated by a gap at approximately 150 km depth. In the upper part, events form a plane that is 15–25 km thick in cross section and dips sub-vertically north to northwest. Seismic activity is more virile in the lower part, where several distinct clusters form a complex pattern of sub-parallel planes. The observed geometry could be reconciled either with a model of two-sided subduction of Eurasian and previously underthrusted Indian continental lithosphere or by a purely Eurasian origin of both Pamir and Hindu Kush seismic zones, which necessitates a contortion and oversteepening of the latter.

Crustal and uppermost mantle velocity structure along a profile across the Pamir and southern Tien Shan as derived from project TIPAGE wide-angle seismic data

Abstract: SUMMARY Utilizing seismic refraction/wide-angle reflection data from 11 approximately in-line earthquakes, 2-D P- and S-velocity models and a Poisson's ratio model of the crust and uppermost mantle beneath the southern Tien Shan and the Pamir have been derived along the 400-km long main profile of the TIPAGE (TIen shan—PAmir GEodynamic program) project. These models show that the crustal thickness varies from about 65.5 km close to the southern end of the profile beneath the South Pamir through about 73.6 km under Lake Karakul in the North Pamir, to about 57.7 km, 50 km south of the northern end of the profile in the southern Tien Shan. Average crustal P velocities are low with respect to the global average, varying from 6.26 to 6.30 km s−1. The average crustal S velocity varies from 3.54 to 3.70 km s−1 along the profile and thus average crustal Poisson's ratio (σ) varies from 0.23 beneath the central Pamir in the south central part of the profile to 0.265 towards the northern end of the profile beneath the southern Tien Shan. The main layer of the upper crust extending from about 2 km below the Earth's surface to 27 km depth below sea level (b.s.l.) has average P velocities of about 6.05–6.1 km s−1, except beneath the south central part of the profile where they decrease to around 5.95 km s−1. This is in contrast to the S velocities which range from 3.4 to 3.6 km s−1 and exhibit the highest values of 3.55–3.6 km s−1 where the P velocity is lowest. Thus, σ for the main layer of the upper crust is 0.26 beneath the profile except beneath the south central part of the profile where it decreases to 0.22. The low value of 0.22 for σ under the central Pamir, the along-strike equivalent of the Qiangtang terrane in Tibet, is similar to that within the corresponding layer beneath the northern Lhasa and southern Qiangtang terranes in central Tibet and is indicative of felsic rocks rich in quartz in the α state. The lower crust below 27 km b.s.l. has P velocities ranging from 6.1 km s−1 at the top to 7.1 km s−1 at the base. Further, σ for this layer is 0.27–0.28 towards the northern end of the profile but is low at about 0.24 beneath the central and southern parts of the profile, which is similar to the situation found in the northeast Tibetan plateau. The low values can be explained by felsic schists and gneisses in the upper part of the lower crust transitioning to granulite-facies and possibly also eclogite-facies metapelites in the lower part. Within the uppermost mantle, the average P velocity is about 8.10–8.15 km s−1 and σ is about 0.26. Assuming an isotropic situation, then a relatively cool (700–800°C) uppermost mantle beneath the profile is indicated. This would in turn indicate an intact mantle lid beneath the profile. An upper mantle reflector dipping from 104 km b.s.l., 120 km from the southern end of the profile to 86 km b.s.l., 155 km from the northern end of the profile has also been identified. The preferred model presented here for the crustal and lithospheric mantle structure beneath the Pamir calls for nearly horizontal underthrusting of relatively cool Indian mantle lithosphere, the leading edge of which is outlined by the Pamir seismic zone. This cool Indian mantle lithosphere is overlain by significantly shortening, warm Asian crust. The Moho trough that is a feature seen beneath some other orogenic belts, for example the Alps and the Urals, beneath the northern Pamir may mark the southern tip of the actively underthrusting Tien Shan crust along the Main Pamir thrust.

Site Effects Assessment in Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan) Using Earthquake and Noise Recording Data

Abstract: Kyrgyzstan, which is located in the collision zone between the Eurasian and Indo-Australian lithosphere plates, is prone to large earthquakes as shown by its historical seismicity. Hence, an increase in the knowledge and awareness by local authorities and decision makers of the possible consequence of a large earthquake, based on improved seismic hazard assessments and realistic earthquake risk scenarios, is mandatory to mitigate the effects of an earthquake. To this regard, the Central Asia Cross-Border Natural Disaster Prevention (CASCADE) project aims to install a cross-border seismological and strong motion network in Central Asia and to support microzonation activities for the capitals of Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. During the first phase of the project, a temporary seismological network of 19 stations was installed in the city of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan. Moreover, single-station noise recordings were collected at nearly 200 sites. In this study, the site amplifications occurring in Bishkek are assessed by analyzing 56 earthquakes extracted from the data streams continuously acquired by the network, as well as from the single-station noise measurements. A broadband amplification (starting at ∼0.1 and 0.2 Hz), is shown by the standard spectral ratio (SSR) results of the stations located within the basin. The reliability of the observed low-frequency amplification was validated through a time–frequency analysis of denoised seismograms. Discrepancies between horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio and SSR results are due to the large amplification of the vertical component of ground motion, probably due to the effect of converted waves. The single-station noise results, once their reliability was assessed by their comparison with the earthquake data, have been used to produce the first fundamental resonance frequency map for Bishkek, whose spatial variation shows a good agreement with the presence of an impedance contrast within the Tertiary sedimentary cover.

Ground Motion Characteristics Estimated from Spectral Ratio between Horizontal and Verticcl Components of Mietremors.

Abstract: The spectral ratio between horizontal and vertical components (H/V ratio) of microtremors measured at the ground surface has been used to estimate fundamental periods and amplification factors of a site, although this technique lacks theoretical background. The aim of this article is to formulate the H/V technique in terms of the characteristics of Rayleigh and Love waves, and to contribute to improve the technique. The improvement includes use of not only peaks but also troughs in the H/V ratio for reliable estimation of the period and use of a newly proposed smoothing function for better estimation of the amplification factor. The formulation leads to a simple formula for the amplification factor expressed with the H/V ratio. With microtremor data measured at 546 junior high schools in 23 wards of Tokyo, the improved technique is applied to mapping site periods and amplification factors in the area.

Classification of offshore mass movements

Abstract: More than 100 offshore mass-movement deposits have been studied in Holocene and Pleistocene sediments. The processes can be divided into three main types: slides/slumps, plastic flows, and turbidity currents, of which 13 main varieties have been recognized. The three types are differentiated mainly by motion, architecture, and shape of failure surface. For slides, the morphology of deposits can usually be linked to a process, but for plastic flows and turbidity currents, information about the motion is mainly provided by the sedimentary record. A static classification based on these features is given, and is related to a dynamic classification system to try to underline the morphological transformation of an offshore event from initiation to deposition.

Mesozoic─Cenozoic geological evolution of the Himalayan-Tibetan orogen and working tectonic hypotheses

Abstract: The Himalayan-Tibetan orogen culminated during the Cenozoic India – Asia collision, but its geological framework and initial growth were fundamentally the result of multiple, previous ocean closure and intercontinental suturing events. As such, the Himalayan-Tibetan orogen provides an ideal laboratory to investigate geological signatures of the suturing process in general, and how the Earth9s highest and largest orogenic feature formed in specific. This paper synthesizes the Triassic through Cenozoic geology of the central Himalayan-Tibetan orogen and presents our tectonic interpretations in a time series of schematic lithosphere-scale cross-sections and paleogeographic maps. We suggest that north-dipping subducting slabs beneath Asian continental terranes associated with closure of the Paleo-, Meso-, and Neo-Tethys oceans experienced phases of southward trench retreat prior to intercontinental suturing. These trench retreat events created ophiolites in forearc extensional settings and/or a backarc oceanic basins between rifted segments of upper-plate continental margin arcs. This process may have occurred at least three times along the southern Asian margin during northward subduction of Neo-Tethys oceanic lithosphere: from ∼174 to 156 Ma; 132 to 120 Ma; and 90 to 70 Ma. At most other times, the Tibetan terranes underwent Cordilleran-style or collisional contractional deformation. Geological records indicate that most of northern and central Tibet (the Hoh-Xil and Qiangtang terranes, respectively) were uplifted above sea level by Jurassic time, and southern Tibet (the Lhasa terrane) north of its forearc region has been above sea level since ∼100 Ma. Stratigraphic evidence indicates that the northern Himalayan margin of India collided with an Asian-affinity subduction complex – forearc – arc system beginning at ∼60 Ma. Both the Himalaya (composed of Indian crust) and Tibet show continuous geological records of orogenesis since ∼60 Ma. As no evidence exists in the rock record for a younger suture, the simplest interpretation of the geology is that India – Asia collision initiated at ∼60 Ma. Plate circuit, paleomagnetic, and structural reconstructions, however, suggest that the southern margin of Asia was too far north of India to have collided with it at that time. Seismic tomographic images are also suggestive of a second, more southerly Neo-Tethyan oceanic slab in the lower mantle where the northernmost margin of India may have been located at ∼60 Ma. The geology of Tibet and the India – Asia suture zone permits an alternative collision scenario in which the continental margin arc along southern Asia (the Gangdese arc) was split by extension beginning at ∼90 Ma, and along with its forearc to the south (the Xigaze forearc), rifted southward and opened a backarc ocean basin. The rifted arc collided with India at ∼60 Ma whereas the hypothetical backarc ocean basin may not have been consumed until ∼45 Ma. A compilation of igneous age data from Tibet shows that the most recent phase of Gangdese arc magmatism in the southern Lhasa terrane initiated at ∼70 Ma, peaked at ∼51 Ma, and terminated at ∼38 Ma. Cenozoic potassic-adakitic magmatism initiated at ∼45 Ma within a ∼200-km-wide elliptical area within the northern Qiangtang terrane, after which it swept westward and southward with time across central Tibet until ∼26 Ma. At 26 to 23 Ma, potassic-adakitic magmatism swept southward across the Lhasa terrane, a narrow (∼20 km width), orogen-parallel basin developed at low elevation along the axis of the India – Asia suture zone (the Kailas basin), and Greater Himalayan Sequence rocks began extruding southward between the South Tibetan Detachment and Main Central Thrust. The Kailas basin was then uplifted to >4 km elevation by ∼20 Ma, after which parts of the India – Asia suture zone and Gangdese arc experienced >6 km of exhumation (between ∼20 and 16 Ma). Between ∼16 and 12 Ma, slip along the South Tibetan Detachment terminated and east-west extension initiated in the northern Himalaya and Tibet. Potassic-adakitic magmatism in the Lhasa terrane shows a northward younging trend in the age of its termination, beginning at 20 to 18 Ma until volcanism ended at 8 Ma. We interpret the post-45 Ma geological evolution in the context of the subduction dynamics of Indian continental lithosphere and its interplay with delamination of Asian mantle lithosphere.

Gradual unlocking of plate boundary controlled initiation of the 2014 Iquique earthquake

Abstract: A long foreshock series unlocked the South American plate boundary until eventually initiating the M 8.1 Iquique, Chile, earthquake. Two groups publishing in this issue of Nature analyse the seismic context of the Iquique earthquake that occurred off the coast of northern Chile on 1 April 2014 in a seismic zone that had been quiescent since a significant event in 1877. Gavin Hayes et al. identify areas of remaining or elevated earthquake hazard along the megathrust fault in the region, and conclude that the 2014 Iquique event was not the earthquake that had been anticipated. Given that significant sections of the northern Chile subduction zone have not ruptured in almost 150 years, they suggest that it is likely that future megathrust earthquakes will occur south and potentially north of the 2014 Iquique sequence. Bernd Schurr et al. show that the April 2014 earthquake broke a central fraction of the 'northern Chile seismic gap', the last major segment of the South American plate boundary that had yet to rupture in the past century. From July 2013 up to the April earthquake they identify three seismic clusters along this part of the plate boundary, each lasting a few weeks, with earthquakes of increasing peak magnitudes. They conclude that these seismic clusters and their slip transients reflect a gradual weakening of the central part of the seismic gap that was instrumental in initiating the final failure. On 1 April 2014, Northern Chile was struck by a magnitude 8.1 earthquake following a protracted series of foreshocks. The Integrated Plate Boundary Observatory Chile monitored the entire sequence of events, providing unprecedented resolution of the build-up to the main event and its rupture evolution. Here we show that the Iquique earthquake broke a central fraction of the so-called northern Chile seismic gap, the last major segment of the South American plate boundary that had not ruptured in the past century1,2. Since July 2013 three seismic clusters, each lasting a few weeks, hit this part of the plate boundary with earthquakes of increasing peak magnitudes. Starting with the second cluster, geodetic observations show surface displacements that can be associated with slip on the plate interface. These seismic clusters and their slip transients occupied a part of the plate interface that was transitional between a fully locked and a creeping portion. Leading up to this earthquake, the b value of the foreshocks gradually decreased during the years before the earthquake, reversing its trend a few days before the Iquique earthquake. The mainshock finally nucleated at the northern end of the foreshock area, which skirted a locked patch, and ruptured mainly downdip towards higher locking. Peak slip was attained immediately downdip of the foreshock region and at the margin of the locked patch. We conclude that gradual weakening of the central part of the seismic gap accentuated by the foreshock activity in a zone of intermediate seismic coupling was instrumental in causing final failure, distinguishing the Iquique earthquake from most great earthquakes. Finally, only one-third of the gap was broken and the remaining locked segments now pose a significant, increased seismic hazard with the potential to host an earthquake with a magnitude of >8.5.