计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

Highway Capacity Manual改訂の動向--テイラ-教授の講演より

In this Chapter, we imagine a decision maker (or a group of experts) trying to establish or examine fair procedures to combine opinions about alternatives related to different points of view.

Multiple criteria decision making

ライブラリー Annual Energy Outlook 2000

Technological advances are bringing connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) to the ever- evolving transportation system. Anticipating the public acceptance and adoption of these technologies is important. A recent internet-based survey was conducted polling 347 Austinites to understand their opinions on smart-car technologies and strategies. Ordered-probit and other model results indicate that respondents perceive fewer crashes to be the primary benefit of autonomous vehicles (AVs), with equipment failure being their top concern. Their average willingness to pay (WTP) for adding full (Level 4) automation ($7,253) appears to be much higher than that for adding partial (Level 3) automation ($3,300) to their current vehicles. This study estimates the impact of demographics, built-environment variables, and travel characteristics on Austinites’ WTP for adding such automations and connectivity to their current and coming vehicles. It also estimates adoption rates of shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs) under different pricing scenarios ($1, $2, and $3 per mile), choice dependence on friends’ and neighbors’ adoption rates, and home-location decisions after AVs and SAVs become a common mode of transport. Higher-income, technology-savvy males, living in urban areas, and those who have experienced more crashes have a greater interest in and higher WTP for the new technologies, with less dependence on others’ adoption rates. Such behavioral models are useful to simulate long-term adoption of CAV technologies under different vehicle pricing and demographic scenarios. These results can be used to develop smarter transportation systems for more efficient and sustainable travel.

Assessing Public Opinions of and Interest in New Vehicle Technologies: An Austin Perspective

This textbook on decision making in transportation contains 20 chapters. The chapter headings are as follows: Chapter 1. Introductory Concepts in Transportation Decision Making; Chapter 2. Performance Measures in Transportation Evaluation; Chapter 3. Estimating Transportation Demand; Chapter 4. Transportation Costs; Chapter 5. Travel-Time Impacts; Chapter 6. Evaluation of Safety Impacts; Chapter 7. Vehicle Operating Cost Impacts; Chapter 8. Economic Efficiency Impacts; Chapter 9. Economic Development Impacts; Chapter 10. Air Quality Impacts; Chapter 11. Noise Impacts; Chapter 12. Impacts on Wetlands and Other Ecosystems; Chapter 13. Impacts on Water Resources; Chapter 14. Visual Impacts; Chapter 15. Impacts on Energy Use; Chapter 16. Land-Use Impacts; Chapter 17. Social and Cultural Impacts; Chapter 18. Evaluation of Transportation Projects and Programs Using Multiple Criteria; Chapter 19. Use of Geographical and Other Information Systems; and Chapter 20. Transportation Programming. Transportation modes included in the textbook are highways, railroads, water transportation, public transit and air transportation.

Transportation Decision Making: Principles of Project Evaluation and Programming

A commonality among state Departments of Transportation is the inability to complete projects on time and within budget. This project assessed the extent of the problem of cost overruns, time delays, and change orders associated with Indiana Department of Transportation (INDOT) construction projects, identified the reasons for such problems, and finally developed a set of recommendations aimed at their future reduction. For comparison purposes, data from other states were collected and studied using a questionnaire instrument. The analysis of the cost overrun, time delay and change order data was done using an array of statistical methods. The literature review and agency survey showed that time delays, cost overruns and change orders are generally due to factors such as design, unexpected site conditions, increases in project scope, weather conditions, and other project changes. The results of the agency survey showed that with regard to the problem of cost overruns, INDOT has an average rank compared to other states. Between 1996 and 2001, the overall rate for cost overrun amounts for INDOT projects was determined as 4.5%, and it was found that 55% of all INDOT contracts experienced cost overruns. It was determined that the average cost overrun amount and rate, as well as the contributory cost overrun factors differ by project type. The average cost overrun rates were as follows: bridge projects -- 8.1%, road construction -- 5.6%, road resurfacing -- 2.6%, traffic projects -- 5.6%, maintenance projects -- 7.5%. With regard to time delays, it was found that 12% of all INDOT contracts experience time delays, and the average delay per contract was 115 days. With regard to change orders, the study found that the dominant category of reasons for change orders is “errors and omissions”, a finding which is suggestive of possible shortcomings in current design practices The statistical analyses in the present study showed that the major factors of cost overruns, time delays, and change orders in Indiana are contract bid amount, difference between the winning bid and second bid, difference between the winning bid and the engineer’s estimate, project type and location by district. Besides helping to identify or confirm influential factors of cost overruns, time delay and change orders, the developed regression models may be used to estimate the extent of future cost overruns, time delay and change orders of any future project given its project characteristics and any available contract details. Such models can therefore be useful in long-term budgeting and needs assessment studies. Finally, the present study made recommendations for improving the management of projects and the administration of contracts in order to reduce cost overruns, time delays and change orders.

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An Analysis of Cost Overruns and Time Delays of INDOT Projects

Transportation decision making

This paper presents a case study for optimizing decisions on the best combination of preventive maintenance (PM) treatments and timings to be applied in the resurfacing life-cycle (interval between resurfacing events), for a given highway pavement section. In the optimization procedure, the paper incorporates key infrastructure management concepts of treatment-specific triggers, performance jump models, and performance trend models. Using a case study, the paper determines that optimization can be a viable tool to support scheduling decisions for highway preventive maintenance. Also, using sensitivity analysis, it is determined that changes in the resurfacing interval length and discount rate can influence the choice of optimal PM schedule.

Decision support for optimal scheduling of highway pavement preventive maintenance within resurfacing cycle

Autonomous vehicle (AV) stakeholders continue to seek assurance of the safety performance of this new technology through AV testing on in‐service roads, AV‐dedicated road networks, and AV ...

Samuel Labi

Papers

Transportation Decision Making: Principles of Project Evaluation and Programming

An Analysis of Cost Overruns and Time Delays of INDOT Projects

Transportation decision making

Decision support for optimal scheduling of highway pavement preventive maintenance within resurfacing cycle

A deep learning algorithm for simulating autonomous driving considering prior knowledge and temporal information