Sara Horrell

Bio: Sara Horrell is an academic researcher from University of Cambridge. The author has contributed to research in topics: Standard of living & Poverty. The author has an hindex of 22, co-authored 48 publications receiving 2292 citations. Previous affiliations of Sara Horrell include Murray Edwards College & London School of Economics and Political Science.

Aid, the Public Sector and the Market in Less Developed Countries

Abstract: The article in this JOURNAL by Mosley et al. (I987) concludes its analysis of aid effectiveness as demonstrating '... inability of development aid over more than twenty years to provide a net increment to overall growth in the Third World' (p. 636). This note purports to show that this conclusion, which is ostensibly 'distressing' as the authors claim, is not warranted. The section of the study which is the basis of the conclusion cited and the subject of this note is a cross-section regression analysis, full details of which are shown in Mosley et al. Table 3. The note is concerned with the relation between the dependent variable specified as the growth rate of real GDP per cent per annum (hereafter GDP) and aid specified as a percentage of GDP (hereafter Aid).' The Aid results, with only two significant positive coefficients in one subsample, certainly give no basis for claiming aid-effectiveness in terms of GDP growth. The intention in this note is to interpret the results which are assumed to be valid. This is made possible by the fact that the authors have helpfully provided the full input set of mean values derived from the raw data. From this it is possible to calculate the GDP/Aid relationship for each country for the second and third period. The procedure for deriving these relationships is as follows. For each country the mean values of the time series of GDP and Aid are extracted from the data for I 960-70 and for I 970-80. Using I 960-70 as the base, the signs of the change in the levels of the GDP and Aid mean values between periods are recorded. This is repeated for I980-4 with I970-80 mean values as the base. The relationship between the two signs is an indication of the effect of Aid on GDP in the period in which the change in levels is effected. Thus in the case of an increase in Aid being combined with a decrease in GDP the latter must have fallen relatively to the former and aid-effectiveness is negative; Mutatis mutandis, for the other three sign combinations, thus generating the appropriate GDP/Aid relationship for each country in each period. A frequency distribution of the four sign-combinations, relating to the full sample, is presented in Table I. Since the signs of the changes in the levels of GDP and Aid are derived by making explicit the arithmetic relationship implicit in the data they form a valid base from which to draw conclusions without requiring any test of

Poverty and productivity in female-headed households in Zimbabwe

Abstract: A household survey conducted in rural Zimbabwe in 2001 is used to compare the position of de facto and de jure female-headed households to those with a male head. These households are characterised by different forms of poverty that impinge on their ability to improve agricultural productivity. However, once inputs are accounted for, it is only for growing cotton that female-headed households' productivity is lower than that found for male-headed households. General poverty alleviation policies will benefit the female-headed household but specific interventions via extension services and access to marketing consortia are also indicated.

Old Questions, New Data, and Alternative Perspectives: Families' Living Standards in the Industrial Revolution

Abstract: We have used the household accounts of 1,350 husband-wife families to investigate trends in male earnings and family incomes. This evidence confirms the material progress suggested by trends in the real wage rates of adult males. But the budget data underscore occupational and regional distinctions, discontinuities in the growth process, and changes over time in the ability of other family members to offset the effects of the business cycle on men's earnings. Overall, family incomes grew less than male earnings.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

Abstract: In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Aid, Policies, and Growth

Abstract: Aid has a positive impact on growth in developing countries with good fiscal, monetary, and trade policies. Aid appears not to affect policies systematically either for good or for ill. Any tendency for aid to reward good policies has been overwhelmed by donorse pursuit of their own strategic interests. Burnside and Dollar use a new database on foreign aid to examine the relationships among foreign aid, economic policies, and growth of per capita GDP. In panel growth regressions for 56 developing countries and six four-year periods (1970-93), they find that the policies that have a great effect on growth are those related to fiscal surplus, inflation, and trade openness. They construct an index for those three policies and have that index interact with foreign aid. They have instruments for both aid and aid interacting with policies. They find that aid has a positive impact on growth in developing countries with good fiscal, monetary, and trade policies. In the presence of poor policies, aid has no positive effect on growth. This result is robust in a variety of specifications, which include or exclude middle-income countries, include or exclude outliers, and treat policies as exogenous or endogenous. They examine the determinants of policy and find no evidence that aid has systematically affected policies, either for good or for ill. They estimate an aid allocation equation and show that any tendency for aid to reward good policies has been overwhelmed by donors' pursuit of their own strategic interests. In a counterfactual, they reallocate aid, reducing the role of donor interests and increasing the importance of policy. Such a reallocation would have a large positive effect on developing countries' growth rates. This paper - a product of the Macroeconomics and Growth Division, Policy Research Department - is part of a larger effort in the department to study the effectiveness of foreign aid. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under research project Economic Policies and the Effectiveness of Foreign Aid (RPO 681-70).

Aid, policies, and growth

Abstract: The authors of this paper use a new database on foreign aid to examine the relationships among foreign aid, economic policies, and growth of per capita GDP. In panel growth regressions for 56 developing countries and 6 four-year periods (1970-93), they find that the policies that have a great effect on growth are those related to fiscal surplus, inflation, and trade openness. They construct an index for those three policies and have that index interact with foreign aid. They have instruments for both aid and aid interacting with policies. They find that aid has a positive impact on growth in developing countries with good fiscal, monetary and trade policies. In the presence of poor policies, aid has no positive effect on growth. This result is robust in a variety of specifications, which include or exclude middle-income countries, include or exclude outliers, and treat policies as exogenous or endogenous. They examine the determinants of policy and find no evidence that aid has systematically affected policies, either for good or for ill. They estimate an aid allocation equation and show that any tendency for aid to reward good policies has been overwhelmed by donors' pursuit of their own strategic interests. In a counterfactual, they reallocate aid, reduce the role of donor interests and increasing the importance of policy. Such a reallocation would have a large positive effect on developing countries' growth rates.