Sara Lindersson

Bio: Sara Lindersson is an academic researcher from Uppsala University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Flood myth & Population. The author has an hindex of 3, co-authored 5 publications receiving 28 citations.

A review of freely accessible global datasets for the study of floods, droughts and their interactions with human societies

Abstract: The availability of planetary-scale geospatial datasets that can support the study of water-related disasters in the Anthropocene is rapidly growing. We review 124 global and free datasets allowing ...

Global riverine flood risk – how do hydrogeomorphic floodplain maps compare to flood hazard maps?

Abstract: . Riverine flood risk studies often require the identification of areas prone to potential flooding. This modelling process can be based on either (hydrologically derived) flood hazard maps or (topography-based) hydrogeomorphic floodplain maps. In this paper, we derive and compare riverine flood exposure from three global products: a hydrogeomorphic floodplain map (GFPLAIN250m, hereinafter GFPLAIN) and two flood hazard maps (Flood Hazard Map of the World by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, hereinafter JRC, and the flood hazard maps produced for the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015, hereinafter GAR). We find an average spatial agreement between these maps of around 30 % at the river basin level on a global scale. This agreement is highly variable across model combinations and geographic conditions, influenced by climatic humidity, river volume, topography, and coastal proximity. Contrary to expectations, the agreement between the two flood hazard maps is lower compared to their agreement with the hydrogeomorphic floodplain map. We also map riverine flood exposure for 26 countries across the global south by intersecting these maps with three human population maps (Global Human Settlement population grid, hereinafter GHS; High Resolution Settlement Layer, hereinafter HRSL; and WorldPop). The findings of this study indicate that hydrogeomorphic floodplain maps can be a valuable way of producing high-resolution maps of flood-prone zones to support riverine flood risk studies, but caution should be taken in regions that are dry, steep, very flat, or near the coast.

Global and free geospatial datasets for the study of floods, droughts and human societies

Abstract: The availability of planetary-scale geospatial datasets that can support the study of water-related disasters in the Anthropocene is rapidly growing. We review over hundred global and free datasets allowing spatiotemporal analyses of floods, droughts and their interactions with human societies. The purpose of structuring a data collection for a broad range of variables is to foster data exchange and illustrate research opportunities across scientific disciplines.

Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming

Abstract: In the last decade record-breaking rainfall events have occurred in many places around the world causing severe impacts to human society and the environment including agricultural losses and floodings. There is now medium confidence that human-induced greenhouse gases have contributed to changes in heavy precipitation events at the global scale. Here, we present the first analysis of record-breaking daily rainfall events using observational data. We show that over the last three decades the number of record-breaking events has significantly increased in the global mean. Globally, this increase has led to 12 % more record-breaking rainfall events over 1981–2010 compared to those expected in stationary time series. The number of record-breaking rainfall events peaked in 2010 with an estimated 26 % chance that a new rainfall record is due to long-term climate change. This increase in record-breaking rainfall is explained by a statistical model which accounts for the warming of air and associated increasing water holding capacity only. Our results suggest that whilst the number of rainfall record-breaking events can be related to natural multi-decadal variability over the period from 1901 to 1980, observed record-breaking rainfall events significantly increased afterwards consistent with rising temperatures.

Insights from socio-hydrology modelling on dealing with flood risk: roles of collective memory, risk-taking attitude and trust (Invited)

Abstract: The risk coping culture of a community plays a major role in the development of urban floodplains. In this paper we analyse, in a conceptual way, the interplay of community risk coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. We particularly focus on three aspects: (i) collective memory, i.e., the capacity of the community to keep risk awareness high; (ii) risk-taking attitude, i.e., the amount of risk the community is collectively willing to be exposed to; and (iii) trust of the community in risk reduction measures. To this end, we use a dynamic model that represents the feedback between the hydrological and social system components. Model results indicate that, on the one hand, by under perceiving the risk of flooding (because of short collective memory and too much trust in flood protection structures) in combination with a high risk-taking attitude, community development is severely limited because of high damages caused by flooding. On the other hand, overestimation of risk (long memory and lack of trust in flood protection structures) leads to lost economic opportunities and recession. There are many scenarios of favourable development resulting from a trade-off between collective memory and trust in risk reduction measures combined with a low to moderate risk-taking attitude. Interestingly, the model gives rise to situations in which the development of the community in the floodplain is path dependent, i.e., the history of flooding may lead to community growth or recession.

Flood Risk Analysis and Assessment, Applications and Uncertainties: A Bibliometric Review

Abstract: Studies looking at flood risk analysis and assessment (FRA) reviews are not customary, and they usually approach to methodological and spatial scale issues, uncertainty, mapping or economic damage topics. However, most of these reviews provide a snapshot of the scientific state of the art of FRA that shows only a partial view, focused on a limited number of selected methods and approaches. In this paper, we apply a bibliometric analysis using the Web of Science (WoS) database to assess the historic evolution and future prospects (emerging fields of application) of FRA. The scientific production of FRA has increased considerably in the past decade. At the beginning, US researchers dominated the field, but now they have been overtaken by the Chinese. The Netherlands and Germany may be highlighted for their more complete analyses and assessments (e.g., including an uncertainty analysis of FRA results), and this can be related to the presence of competitive research groups focused on FRA. Regarding FRA fields of application, resilience analysis shows some growth in recent years while land planning, risk perception and risk warning show a slight decrease in the number of papers published. Global warming appears to dominate part of future FRA production, which affects both fluvial and coastal floods. This, together with the improvement of economic evaluation and psycho-social analysis, appear to be the main trends for the future evolution of FRA. Finally, we cannot ignore the increase in analysis using big data analysis, machine learning techniques, and remote sensing data (particularly in the case of UAV sensors data).

Disaster Justice: The Geography of Human Capability

Abstract: “Social vulnerability,” the part of a community’s susceptibility to harm that can be attributed to demographic characteristics, should become a more prominent concern in disaster policy. The failure to address a community’s social vulnerability to hazard not only results in higher losses in total, but also losses that are distributed unfairly and impinge on personal freedom. This article is about setting the foundation for more legal analysis of what I call “Disaster Justice.” Part I investigates the social meaning and geographic patterns of disaster. It shows how social scientists – in particular geographer Susan Cutter and her colleagues – have come to think of disaster as a social phenomenon, where demographic characteristics like class and race can influence a community’s hazard-risk index as much as its location. Part II investigates the social and political meaning of injustice, drawing from the work of political theorist Judith Shklar and economist Amartya Sen, to show that social resilience in times of disaster is not only a factor in public safety, but a significant aspect of personal freedom. Applying these insights, Part III sets forth some general principles for developing new policies and using old ones to strengthen social resilience in the future. In this Part, I offer two concrete policy initiatives that can set us on a course for progress: a federal executive order on disaster justice and a nationally consistent disaster-justice mapping tool.

On doing hydrology with dragons: Realizing the value of perceptual models and knowledge accumulation

Abstract: Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK Cabot Institute for the Environment, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK Institute for Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany Department of Civil Engineering, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK Institute of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany