Scott E. Page

Bio: Scott E. Page is an academic researcher from University of Michigan. The author has contributed to research in topics: Complex adaptive system & Population. The author has an hindex of 35, co-authored 120 publications receiving 10012 citations. Previous affiliations of Scott E. Page include Santa Fe Institute & Northwestern University.

Complex Adaptive Systems: An Introduction to Computational Models of Social Life

Abstract: Theoretical physics is replete with models. When equations of motion are not available, or not amenable to perturbation theory, or just too hard from which to extract useful information, then physicists turn to models and computation. The Ising model of ferromagnetism is a classic example. A simple nearest neighbor temperature dependent interaction, in two or more dimensions, leads to long-range order and a phase transition at a finite temperature. This model has many locally interacting parts and an emergent behavior (ferromagnetism) at a critical temperature. However, the system never adapts. It does not change the phase transition to a higher temperature or avoid a phase transition altogether. Social systems are always adapting, and this interesting twist produces a vast array of possibilities and forms the basis of much of the discussion in Miller and Page’s book. This book is not a textbook, but rather an essay on complex adaptive systems. The discussions and insights will be better appreciated by readers who have already tried their hand at investigating complex adaptive systems. These systems can be so complex that the best method to discover their properties is to dispatch many computer agents to experience the system’s possibilities. The study becomes more interesting when the agents can alter their actions and the rules of the game. Miller and Page give the simple, but instructive example of forest growth and lightning induced forest fires. If trees grow too rapidly they will cover the allowable space and a fire started anywhere in the forest will spread and destroy the entire forest. A very slow growth will only produce a sparse forest. The authors find a tree growth rate to achieve an optimal stable high forest coverage. Their solution is trumped when altruistic agents are introduced, one for each tree. Some of the agents adapt by not growing a tree in their plot of land (to their personal disadvantage) but the overall global organization is one of firebreaks preventing large scale fires. Adaptation wins! Another model discussed is what physicists call the minority game, that is, making a choice that puts you in the minority. This is perhaps best known through the El Faro example of choosing whether or not to go to Santa Fe’s El Faro bar tonight based on whether it was

The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies

Abstract: Preface to the Paperback Edition Prufrock Avoided xiii Acknowledgments The Continuous Life xix Prologue How Diversity Trumps Ability Fun at Caltech xxv Introduction Unpacking Our Differences 1 PART ONE: UNPACKING THE TOOLBOX CHAPTER 1: Diverse Perspectives How We See Things 23 CHAPTER 2: Heuristics Do the Opposite 52 CHAPTER 3: Interpretations Our Own Private Flatland 73 CHAPTER 4: Predictive Models Judging Books by Their Covers 90 CHAPTER 5: Measuring Sticks and Toolboxes Calipers for the Brain 103 PART TWO: DIVERSITY'S BENEFITS: BUILDING FROM TOOLS CHAPTER 6: Diversity and Problem Solving Darwin's Brass Tacks 131 CHAPTER 7: Models of Information Aggregation Mindless Signals 175 CHAPTER 8: Diversity and Prediction The Crowd of Models 197 PART THREE: DIVERSE VALUES: A CONFLICT OF INTERESTS (OR IS IT)? CHAPTER 9: Diverse Preferences Why Tapas 239 CHAPTER 10: Preference Aggregation Four (Not So) Depressing Results 255 CHAPTER 11: Interacting Toolboxes and Preferences Go Ask Alice 285 PART FOUR: THE PUDDING: DOES DIVERSITY GENERATE BENEFITS? CHAPTER 12: The Causes of Cognitive Diversity Family Vacations, College, or Identity? 299 CHAPTER 13: The Empirical Evidence The Pudding 313 PART FIVE: GOING ON THE OFFENSIVE CHAPTER 14: A Fertile Logic Putting Ideas to Work 339 Epilogue: The Ketchup Questions 371 Notes 377 Index 411

Groups of diverse problem solvers can outperform groups of high-ability problem solvers

Abstract: We introduce a general framework for modeling functionally diverse problem-solving agents. In this framework, problem-solving agents possess representations of problems and algorithms that they use to locate solutions. We use this framework to establish a result relevant to group composition. We find that when selecting a problem-solving team from a diverse population of intelligent agents, a team of randomly selected agents outperforms a team comprised of the best-performing agents. This result relies on the intuition that, as the initial pool of problem solvers becomes large, the best-performing agents necessarily become similar in the space of problem solvers. Their relatively greater ability is more than offset by their lack of problem-solving diversity.

Prologue to The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies

Abstract: In this landmark book, Scott Page redefines the way we understand ourselves in relation to one another. The Difference is about how we think in groups--and how our collective wisdom exceeds the sum of its parts. Why can teams of people find better solutions than brilliant individuals working alone? And why are the best group decisions and predictions those that draw upon the very qualities that make each of us unique? The answers lie in diversity--not what we look like outside, but what we look like within, our distinct tools and abilities. The Difference reveals that progress and innovation may depend less on lone thinkers with enormous IQs than on diverse people working together and capitalizing on their individuality. Page shows how groups that display a range of perspectives outperform groups of like-minded experts. Diversity yields superior outcomes, and Page proves it using his own cutting-edge research. Moving beyond the politics that cloud standard debates about diversity, he explains why difference beats out homogeneity, whether you're talking about citizens in a democracy or scientists in the laboratory. He examines practical ways to apply diversity's logic to a host of problems, and along the way offers fascinating and surprising examples, from the redesign of the Chicago "El" to the truth about where we store our ketchup. Page changes the way we understand diversity--how to harness its untapped potential, how to understand and avoid its traps, and how we can leverage our differences for the benefit of all.

Diversity and Complexity

Abstract: This book provides an introduction to the role of diversity in complex adaptive systems. A complex system--such as an economy or a tropical ecosystem--consists of interacting adaptive entities that produce dynamic patterns and structures. Diversity plays a different role in a complex system than it does in an equilibrium system, where it often merely produces variation around the mean for performance measures. In complex adaptive systems, diversity makes fundamental contributions to system performance. Scott Page gives a concise primer on how diversity happens, how it is maintained, and how it affects complex systems. He explains how diversity underpins system level robustness, allowing for multiple responses to external shocks and internal adaptations; how it provides the seeds for large events by creating outliers that fuel tipping points; and how it drives novelty and innovation. Page looks at the different kinds of diversity--variations within and across types, and distinct community compositions and interaction structures--and covers the evolution of diversity within complex systems and the factors that determine the amount of maintained diversity within a system.Provides a concise and accessible introduction Shows how diversity underpins robustness and fuels tipping points Covers all types of diversity The essential primer on diversity in complex adaptive systems

The WEIRDest People in the World

Abstract: Behavioral scientists routinely publish broad claims about human psychology and behavior in the world's top journals based on samples drawn entirely from Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, and Democratic (WEIRD) societies. Researchers - often implicitly - assume that either there is little variation across human populations, or that these "standard subjects" are as representative of the species as any other population. Are these assumptions justified? Here, our review of the comparative database from across the behavioral sciences suggests both that there is substantial variability in experimental results across populations and that WEIRD subjects are particularly unusual compared with the rest of the species - frequent outliers. The domains reviewed include visual perception, fairness, cooperation, spatial reasoning, categorization and inferential induction, moral reasoning, reasoning styles, self-concepts and related motivations, and the heritability of IQ. The findings suggest that members of WEIRD societies, including young children, are among the least representative populations one could find for generalizing about humans. Many of these findings involve domains that are associated with fundamental aspects of psychology, motivation, and behavior - hence, there are no obvious a priori grounds for claiming that a particular behavioral phenomenon is universal based on sampling from a single subpopulation. Overall, these empirical patterns suggests that we need to be less cavalier in addressing questions of human nature on the basis of data drawn from this particularly thin, and rather unusual, slice of humanity. We close by proposing ways to structurally re-organize the behavioral sciences to best tackle these challenges.

A Framework for K-12 Science Education: Practices, Crosscutting Concepts, and Core Ideas

Abstract: 1 On behalf of NASA’s Mars Exploration Program, this lesson was prepared by Arizona State University’s Mars Education Program, under contract to NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, a division of the California Institute of Technology. These materials may be distributed freely for non-commercial purposes. Copyright 2014; 2012; 2010; 2000. Last edited: April 24, 2014 Marsbound! Mission to the Red Planet

Economics of Information

Abstract: The author systematically examines one of the important issues of information — establishing the market price. He introduces the concept of «search» — where a buyer wanting to get a better price, is forced to question sellers. The article deals with various aspects of finding the necessary information.

E Pluribus Unum: Diversity and Community in the Twenty‐first Century The 2006 Johan Skytte Prize Lecture

Abstract: Ethnic diversity is increasing in most advanced countries, driven mostly by sharp increases in immigration. In the long run immigration and diversity are likely to have important cultural, economic, fiscal, and developmental benefits. In the short run, however, immigration and ethnic diversity tend to reduce social solidarity and social capital. New evidence from the US suggests that in ethnically diverse neighbourhoods residents of all races tend to ‘hunker down’. Trust (even of one's own race) is lower, altruism and community cooperation rarer, friends fewer. In the long run, however, successful immigrant societies have overcome such fragmentation by creating new, cross-cutting forms of social solidarity and more encompassing identities. Illustrations of becoming comfortable with diversity are drawn from the US military, religious institutions, and earlier waves of American immigration.