Serena Ceola

Bio: Serena Ceola is an academic researcher from University of Bologna. The author has contributed to research in topics: Flood myth & Environmental science. The author has an hindex of 17, co-authored 30 publications receiving 933 citations. Previous affiliations of Serena Ceola include École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne & École Polytechnique.

Fluvial network organization imprints on microbial co-occurrence networks

Abstract: Recent studies highlight linkages among the architecture of ecological networks, their persistence facing environmental disturbance, and the related patterns of biodiversity. A hitherto unresolved question is whether the structure of the landscape inhabited by organisms leaves an imprint on their ecological networks. We analyzed, based on pyrosequencing profiling of the biofilm communities in 114 streams, how features inherent to fluvial networks affect the co-occurrence networks that the microorganisms form in these biofilms. Our findings suggest that hydrology and metacommunity dynamics, both changing predictably across fluvial networks, affect the fragmentation of the microbial co-occurrence networks throughout the fluvial network. The loss of taxa from co-occurrence networks demonstrates that the removal of gatekeepers disproportionately contributed to network fragmentation, which has potential implications for the functions biofilms fulfill in stream ecosystems. Our findings are critical because of increased anthropogenic pressures deteriorating stream ecosystem integrity and biodiversity.

Satellite nighttime lights reveal increasing human exposure to floods worldwide

Abstract: River floods claim thousands of lives every year, but effective and high-resolution methods to map human exposure to floods at the global scale are still lacking. We use satellite nightlight data to prove that nocturnal lights close to rivers are consistently related to flood damages. We correlate global data of economic losses caused by flooding events with nighttime lights and find that increasing nightlights are associated to flood damage intensification. Then, we analyze the temporal evolution of nightlights along the river network all over the world from 1992 to 2012 and obtain a global map of nightlight trends, which we associate with increasing human exposure to floods, at 1 km2 resolution. An enhancement of exposure to floods worldwide, particularly in Africa and Asia, is revealed, which may exacerbate the projected effects of climate change on flood-related losses and therefore argues for the development of valuable flood preparedness and mitigation strategies.

Improving the theoretical underpinnings of process-based hydrologic models

Abstract: In this Commentary we argue that it is possible to improve the physical realism of hydrologic models by making better use of existing hydrologic theory. We address the following questions: (1) what are some key elements of current hydrologic theory; (2) how can those elements best be incorporated where they may be missing in current models; and (3) how can we evaluate competing hydrologic theories across scales and locations? We propose that hydrologic science would benefit from a model-based community synthesis effort to reframe, integrate and evaluate different explanations of hydrologic behavior, and provide a controlled avenue to find where understanding falls short. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Geomorphic Signatures on Brutsaert Base Flow Recession Analysis

Abstract: ] This paper addresses the signatures of catchment geomorphology on base flow recessioncurves. Its relevance relates to the implied predictability of base flow features, which arecentral to catchment-scale transport processes and to ecohydrological function. Movingfrom the classical recession curve analysis method, originally applied in the Finger LakesRegion of New York, a large set of recession curves has been analyzed from Swissstreamflow data. For these catchments, digital elevation models have been preciselyanalyzed and a method aimed at the geomorphic origins of recession curves has beenapplied to the Swiss data set. The method links river network morphology, epitomized bytime-varying distribution of contributing channel sites, with the classic parameterization ofrecession events. This is done by assimilating two scaling exponents, and b

Satellite nighttime lights reveal increasing human exposure to floods worldwide

Abstract: River floods claim thousands of lives every year, but effective and high-resolution methods to map human exposure to floods at the global scale are still lacking. We use satellite nightlight data to prove that nocturnal lights close to rivers are consistently related to flood damages. We correlate global data of economic losses caused by flooding events with nighttime lights and find that increasing nightlights are associated to flood damage intensification. Then, we analyze the temporal evolution of nightlights along the river network all over the world from 1992 to 2012 and obtain a global map of nightlight trends, which we associate with increasing human exposure to floods, at 1 km2 resolution. An enhancement of exposure to floods worldwide, particularly in Africa and Asia, is revealed, which may exacerbate the projected effects of climate change on flood-related losses and therefore argues for the development of valuable flood preparedness and mitigation strategies.

Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation Data 2010 (GMTED2010)

Abstract: For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment, visit http://www.usgs.gov or call 1–888–ASK–USGS. For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this report is in the public domain, permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to reproduce any copyrighted materials contained within this report. 10. Diagram showing the GMTED2010 layer extents (minimum and maximum latitude and longitude) are a result of the coordinate system inherited from the 1-arc-second SRTM

The ecology and biogeochemistry of stream biofilms

Abstract: Streams and rivers form dense networks, shape the Earth's surface and, in their sediments, provide an immensely large surface area for microbial growth. Biofilms dominate microbial life in streams and rivers, drive crucial ecosystem processes and contribute substantially to global biogeochemical fluxes. In turn, water flow and related deliveries of nutrients and organic matter to biofilms constitute major constraints on microbial life. In this Review, we describe the ecology and biogeochemistry of stream biofilms and highlight the influence of physical and ecological processes on their structure and function. Recent advances in the study of biofilm ecology may pave the way towards a mechanistic understanding of the effects of climate and environmental change on stream biofilms and the biogeochemistry of stream ecosystems.

Global drivers of future river flood risk

Abstract: Global river flood risk is expected to increase substantially over coming decades due to both climate change and socioeconomic development. Model-based projections suggest that southeast Asia and Africa are at particular risk, highlighting the need to invest in adaptation measures. Understanding global future river flood risk is a prerequisite for the quantification of climate change impacts and planning effective adaptation strategies1. Existing global flood risk projections fail to integrate the combined dynamics of expected socio-economic development and climate change. We present the first global future river flood risk projections that separate the impacts of climate change and socio-economic development. The projections are based on an ensemble of climate model outputs2, socio-economic scenarios3, and a state-of-the-art hydrologic river flood model combined with socio-economic impact models4,5. Globally, absolute damage may increase by up to a factor of 20 by the end of the century without action. Countries in Southeast Asia face a severe increase in flood risk. Although climate change contributes significantly to the increase in risk in Southeast Asia6, we show that it is dwarfed by the effect of socio-economic growth, even after normalization for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. African countries face a strong increase in risk mainly due to socio-economic change. However, when normalized to GDP, climate change becomes by far the strongest driver. Both high- and low-income countries may benefit greatly from investing in adaptation measures, for which our analysis provides a basis.

Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods

Abstract: Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere1. These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe2. Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe3, because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our results—arising from the most complete database of European flooding so far—suggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century4,5, suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management. Analysis of a comprehensive European flood dataset reveals regional changes in river flood discharges in the past five decades that are consistent with models suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening.