Siddhivinayak Kulkarni

Bio: Siddhivinayak Kulkarni is an academic researcher from Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The author has contributed to research in topics: Image retrieval & Feature extraction. The author has an hindex of 12, co-authored 54 publications receiving 569 citations. Previous affiliations of Siddhivinayak Kulkarni include Federation University Australia & Nipissing University.

Forecasting Model for Crude Oil Price Using Artificial Neural Networks and Commodity Futures Prices

Abstract: This paper presents a model based on multilayer feedforward neural network to forecast crude oil spot price direction in the short-term, up to three days ahead. A great deal of attention was paid on finding the optimal ANN model structure. In addition, several methods of data pre-processing were tested. Our approach is to create a benchmark based on lagged value of pre-processed spot price, then add pre-processed futures prices for 1, 2, 3,and four months to maturity, one by one and also altogether. The results on the benchmark suggest that a dynamic model of 13 lags is the optimal to forecast spot price direction for the short-term. Further, the forecast accuracy of the direction of the market was 78%, 66%, and 53% for one, two, and three days in future conclusively. For all the experiments, that include futures data as an input, the results show that on the short-term, futures prices do hold new information on the spot price direction. The results obtained will generate comprehensive understanding of the crude oil dynamic which help investors and individuals for risk managements.

Forecasting model for crude oil prices based on artificial neural networks

Abstract: This paper presents short-term forecasting model for crude oil prices based on three layer feedforward neural network. Careful attention was paid on finding the optimal network structure. Moreover, a number of features were tested as an inputs such as crude oil futures prices, dollar index, gold spot price, heating oil spot price and S&P 500 index. The results show that with adequate network design and appropriate selection of the training inputs, feedforward networks are capable of forecasting noisy time series with high accuracy.

Fuzzy logic based texture queries for CBIR

Abstract: This paper presents a novel fuzzy logic based approach for the interpretation of texture queries. Tamura feature extraction technique is used to extract each texture feature of an image in the database. A term set on each Tamura feature is generated by a fuzzy clustering algorithm to pose a query in terms of natural language. The query can be expressed as a logic combination of natural language terms and tamura feature values. The performance of the technique was evaluated on Brodatz texture benchmark database. Experimental results show that the proposed technique is effective and the retrieved images indicate that those images are suitable for the specific queries.

Forecasting Model for Crude Oil Price Using Artificial Neural Networks and Commodity Futures Prices

Abstract: This paper presents a model based on multilayer feedforward neural network to forecast crude oil spot price direction in the short-term, up to three days ahead. A great deal of attention was paid on finding the optimal ANN model structure. In addition, several methods of data pre-processing were tested. Our approach is to create a benchmark based on lagged value of pre-processed spot price, then add pre-processed futures prices for 1, 2, 3,and four months to maturity, one by one and also altogether. The results on the benchmark suggest that a dynamic model of 13 lags is the optimal to forecast spot price direction for the short-term. Further, the forecast accuracy of the direction of the market was 78%, 66%, and 53% for one, two, and three days in future conclusively. For all the experiments, that include futures data as an input, the results show that on the short-term, futures prices do hold new information on the spot price direction. The results obtained will generate comprehensive understanding of the crude oil dynamic which help investors and individuals for risk managements.

A new reliability analysis method based on the conjugate gradient direction

Abstract: Reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) is an important area in structural optimization. A principal step of the RBDO process is to solve a reliability analysis problem. This problem has been considered in inner loop of double-loop RBDO approaches. Although many algorithms have been developed for solving this problem, there are still some challenges. Existing algorithms do not have good convergence rates and often diverge. There is a need to develop more efficient and stable algorithms that can be used for evaluating all performance functions sufficiently. In this paper, a new method, called "Conjugate Gradient Analysis (CGA) Method", is proposed to apply in the reliability analysis problems. This method is based on the conjugate gradient method. Some mathematical problems are provided in order to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method compared with the existing methods.

A survey of content-based image retrieval with high-level semantics

Abstract: In order to improve the retrieval accuracy of content-based image retrieval systems, research focus has been shifted from designing sophisticated low-level feature extraction algorithms to reducing the 'semantic gap' between the visual features and the richness of human semantics. This paper attempts to provide a comprehensive survey of the recent technical achievements in high-level semantic-based image retrieval. Major recent publications are included in this survey covering different aspects of the research in this area, including low-level image feature extraction, similarity measurement, and deriving high-level semantic features. We identify five major categories of the state-of-the-art techniques in narrowing down the 'semantic gap': (1) using object ontology to define high-level concepts; (2) using machine learning methods to associate low-level features with query concepts; (3) using relevance feedback to learn users' intention; (4) generating semantic template to support high-level image retrieval; (5) fusing the evidences from HTML text and the visual content of images for WWW image retrieval. In addition, some other related issues such as image test bed and retrieval performance evaluation are also discussed. Finally, based on existing technology and the demand from real-world applications, a few promising future research directions are suggested.

The use of machine learning algorithms in recommender systems: A systematic review

Abstract: Recommender systems use algorithms to provide users with product or service recommendations. Recently, these systems have been using machine learning algorithms from the field of artificial intelligence. However, choosing a suitable machine learning algorithm for a recommender system is difficult because of the number of algorithms described in the literature. Researchers and practitioners developing recommender systems are left with little information about the current approaches in algorithm usage. Moreover, the development of recommender systems using machine learning algorithms often faces problems and raises questions that must be resolved. This paper presents a systematic review of the literature that analyzes the use of machine learning algorithms in recommender systems and identifies new research opportunities. The goals of this study are to (i) identify trends in the use or research of machine learning algorithms in recommender systems; (ii) identify open questions in the use or research of machine learning algorithms; and (iii) assist new researchers to position new research activity in this domain appropriately. The results of this study identify existing classes of recommender systems, characterize adopted machine learning approaches, discuss the use of big data technologies, identify types of machine learning algorithms and their application domains, and analyzes both main and alternative performance metrics.

The Use of Machine Learning Algorithms in Recommender Systems: A Systematic Review

Abstract: Recommender systems use algorithms to provide users with product or service recommendations. Recently, these systems have been using machine learning algorithms from the field of artificial intelligence. However, choosing a suitable machine learning algorithm for a recommender system is difficult because of the number of algorithms described in the literature. Researchers and practitioners developing recommender systems are left with little information about the current approaches in algorithm usage. Moreover, the development of a recommender system using a machine learning algorithm often has problems and open questions that must be evaluated, so software engineers know where to focus research efforts. This paper presents a systematic review of the literature that analyzes the use of machine learning algorithms in recommender systems and identifies research opportunities for software engineering research. The study concludes that Bayesian and decision tree algorithms are widely used in recommender systems because of their relative simplicity, and that requirement and design phases of recommender system development appear to offer opportunities for further research.

Crude oil price forecasting: Experimental evidence from wavelet decomposition and neural network modeling

Abstract: Oil price prediction has usually proved to be an intractable task due to the intrinsic complexity of oil market mechanism. In addition, the recent oil shock and its consequences relaunch the debate on understanding the behavior underlying the expected oil prices. Combining the dynamic properties of multilayer back propagation neural network and the recent Harr A trous wavelet decomposition, a Hybrid model HTW-MPNN is implemented to achieve prominent prediction of crude oil price. While recent studies focus on the determination of the best forecasting model by comparing various neural architectures or applying several decomposition techniques to the ANN, the new insight of this paper is to target the issue of the transfer function selection providing robust simulations on both in sample and out of sample basis. Based on the work of Yonaba, H., Anctil, F., and Fortin, V. (2010) “Comparing Sigmoid Transfer Functions for Neural Network Multistep Ahead Stream flow forecasting”. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, April, 275–283, we use three variants of activation function namely sigmoid, bipolar sigmoid and hyperbolic tangent in order to test the model's flexibility. Furthermore, the forecasting robustness is checked through several levels of input–hidden nodes. Comparatively, results of HTW-MBPNN perform better than the conventional BPNN. Our conclusions add a major attribute to the previous studies corroborating the Occam razor's principle, especially when simulations are constructed through training and testing phases simultaneously. Finally, more eligible forecasting power is found according to the wavelet oil price signal which appears to be the closest to the real anticipations of future oil price fluctuations.