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Showing papers by "Simon French published in 2013"


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This paper develops a framework for integrating MCDA and scenario thinking, based on applying MCDA concepts across a range of “metacriteria” (combinations of scenarios and primary criteria).
Abstract: Scenario planning and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are two key management science tools used in strategic planning. In this paper, we explore the integration of these two approaches in a coherent manner, recognizing that each adds value to the implementation of the other. Various approaches that have been adopted for such integration are reviewed, with a primary focus on the process of constructing preferences both within and between scenarios. Biases that may be introduced by inappropriate assumptions during such processes are identified, and used to motivate a framework for integrating MCDA and scenario thinking, based on applying MCDA concepts across a range of “metacriteria” (combinations of scenarios and primary criteria). Within this framework, preferences according to each primary criterion can be expressed in the context of different scenarios. The paper concludes with a hypothetical but non-trivial example of agricultural policy planning in a developing country.

147 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: David Snowden's Cynefin framework is explored, particularly in its ability to help recognise which analytic and modelling methodologies are most likely to offer appropriate support in a given context.
Abstract: David Snowden's Cynefin framework, introduced to articulate discussions of sense-making, knowledge management and organisational learning, has much to offer discussion of statistical inference and decision analysis. I explore its value, particularly in its ability to help recognise which analytic and modelling methodologies are most likely to offer appropriate support in a given context. The framework also offers a further perspective on the relationship between scenario thinking and decision analysis in supporting decision makers.

52 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a range of mathematical models, computing tools and, particularly, multi-criteria decision-making techniques have been applied in the last 25 years to help politicians, health officials, local authority representatives and emergency planning officers devise better countermeasure strategies in the event of a radiation accident.
Abstract: Radiation accidents such as those at Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and, more recently, Fukushima have emphasized the need for supporting all phases of emergency management from the early phases in which a threat is detected to years and decades after the accident. Several decision-aiding tools have been developed to prevent and mitigate the effects of a radiation accident. This work reviews a range of mathematical models, computing tools and, particularly, multi-criteria decision-making techniques that have been applied in the last 25 years to help politicians, health officials, local authority representatives and emergency planning officers devise better countermeasure strategies in the event of a radiation accident. The paper discusses all phases of a nuclear emergency as well as emergency training and planning. It highlights what has been achieved in the application of multi-criteria decision analysis, mainly through initiatives such as the EU-funded real-time online decision support projects. It examines how such tools that have been developed fit into the formulation, evaluation and appraisal stages of the emergency management process and discusses the complex socio-technical issues that arise from radiation accidents.

30 citations


Proceedings Article
01 Jan 2013
TL;DR: This approach enables dynamic adaption of the stress tests in the face of a fast changing environment and to take account of better information about interdependencies or changing preferences, which helps make trade-offs between costs for resilient CIs and potential losses of disruptions clearly apparent.
Abstract: This paper outlines an approach to support decision-makers in designing resilient critical infrastructure (CI) networks. As CIs have become increasingly interdependent disruptions can have far-reaching impacts. We focus on the vulnerability of CIs and the socio-economic systems, in which they are embedded, independent from any initial risk event. To determine which disruptions are the most severe and must be avoided, quantitative and qualitative assessments of a disruption’s consequences and the perspectives of multiple stakeholders need to be integrated. To this end, we combine the results of consequence models and expert assessments into stress test scenarios, which are evaluated using multi-criteria decision analysis techniques. This approach enables dynamic adaption of the stress tests in the face of a fast changing environment and to take account of better information about interdependencies or changing preferences. This approach helps make trade-offs between costs for resilient CIs and potential losses of disruptions clearly apparent.

7 citations


01 Jan 2013
TL;DR: A two year research project on the management of nuclear risk issues, paying particular attention to environmental, financial and safety issues, and one aspect that concerns it is to avoid the assumption that any future accident will be similar to a past accident.
Abstract: We are just beginning a two year research project on the management of nuclear risk issues, paying particular attention to environmental, financial and safety issues. One aspect that concerns us is to avoid the assumption that any future accident will be similar to a past accident. In the cases of Chernobyl and Fukushima, it was possible both to evacuate the local population to impose a substantial exclusion zone, and we recognize that for many potential accidents this would be the case. But for some nuclear plant, it may not be so because of the large number of local inhabitants or because of some key industrial or societal infrastructure. We would like to take the opportunity of the ISCRAM conference to discuss this issue with a wide audience.

3 citations


Book ChapterDOI
01 Jul 2013
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an initial insight to the little-researched phenomenon of how knowledge management systems (KMSs) can support DM processes in organizations.
Abstract: With the advent of the knowledge economy and the growing importance of knowledge societies, organizations are constantly seeking new ways of leveraging knowledge assets to support Decision Making (DM) processes. This chapter presents an initial insight to the little-researched phenomenon of how Knowledge Management Systems (KMSs) can support DM processes in organizations. A synthesis of ideas from a literature review suggests a new conceptual framework with several critical factors that organizations should take into account to assess the usage of KMSs tools in supporting DM processes in organizations. The proposed framework, “USUQ,” will benefit managers in both public and private sectors in knowing how the Usage, Satisfaction, Usefulness, and the Quality of using KMSs can support DM processes.

2 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
17 Sep 2013
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that risk is both a pervasive phenomenon that requires systematic assessment and management efforts and, at the same time, a slippery concept that evades attempts to achieve precise quantification.
Abstract: Our contention in developing the special issue has been that risk is both a pervasive phenomenon that requires systematic assessment and management efforts and, at the same time, a slippery concept that evades attempts to achieve precise quantification. The pervasiveness is demonstrated by the range of application areas which are represented in this special issue.

2 citations