Showing papers by "Simon French published in 2017"
TL;DR: This paper synthesise the findings in the literature with the experience and identifies a number of behavioural challenges to nuclear emergency decision support, and proposes the use of models relying on incomplete preference information, outlining a framework and illustrating it with data from a previous decision analysis for the Chernobyl Project.
14 citations
Proceedings Article•
01 Jan 2017TL;DR: The R&D programmes needed to provide emergency managers with better guidance on uncertainty are suggested and how it may affect the consequences of taking different countermeasures are suggested.
Abstract: In the years following Chernobyl, many reports and projects reflected on how to improve emergency management processes in dealing with an accidental offsite release of radiation at a nuclear facility. A common observation was the need to address the inevitable uncertainties. Various suggestions were made and some of these were researched in some depth. The Fukushima Daiichi Disaster has led to further reflections. However, many of the uncertainties inherent in responding to a threatened or actual release remain unaddressed in the analyses and model runs that are conducted to support the emergency managers in their decision making. They
are often left to factor in allowances for the uncertainty through informal discussion and unsupported judgement, and the full range of sources of uncertainty may not be addressed. In this paper, we summarise the issues and report on a project which has investigated the handling of uncertainty in the UK’s national crisis cell.
We suggest the R&D programmes needed to provide emergency managers with better guidance on uncertainty
and how it may affect the consequences of taking different countermeasures.
4 citations
TL;DR: A new measure of the influence of individuals, analogous to the well-known Cook's distance used to identify influential data in regression, is given, and a simple method to identify sub-groups within the group of decision makers is given.
Abstract: This paper investigates measuring the influence of some group members on others in decision making. Being better able to identify potentially influential behaviour would be useful in supporting and subsequently auditing a decision. A new measure of the influence of individuals is given, which is analogous to the well-known Cook's distance used to identify influential data in regression. The theoretical properties of this measure are explored. A simple method to identify sub-groups within the group of decision makers is given. We investigate the efficiency of our new measures using large scale randomised studies. We use these measures to identify sub-groups of individuals with similar beliefs in a data set collected in a previous experiment.