Showing papers by "Simon French published in 2018"
TL;DR: A mathematical programming model is proposed to support the operator in dealing with the impact of compressor failures and suggest efficient maintenance policies for National Grid.
31 citations
TL;DR: Four mixed-integer linear programming models are proposed for the optimal linepack planning to compensate for the fluctuation of gas demand and Experimental results show that these models can produce the optimallinepack plans under certain scenarios that current tools at National Grid cannot achieve.
22 citations
TL;DR: The time is right for decision analysis to be more widely used in making societal decisions, however, to achieve that it needs to realise that in many circumstances it will only be one input to the political process that leads to the actual decision.
Abstract: Decision analysis has been with us for at least half a century. Over that time it has developed from a theoretical paradigm for individual rational choice to a practical tool for individuals, small groups and ‘unitary’ organisations, which helps them towards a sound decision-making mindful of the behavioural characteristics of individuals and group dynamics. Decision analysis has also shown its worth in the context of stakeholder engagement and public participation. The time is right for it to be more widely used in making societal decisions. However, to achieve that we need to realise that in many circumstances it will only be one input to the political process that leads to the actual decision. Recognising that suggests that our community of decision analysts needs to deconstruct our paradigm and attend more to communicating the result of the analysis in comparison with other inputs to the societal decision.
19 citations
01 Jan 2018
TL;DR: This chapter critically review the European Food Safety Authority's prescription of the procedures and processes needed to conduct an expert judgement study from a Bayesian perspective, asking how it might need modifying if Bayesian models are included to analyse and aggregate the expert judgements.
Abstract: There are relatively few published perspectives on processes and procedures for organising the elicitation, aggregation and documentation of expert judgement studies The few that exist emphasise different aggregation models, but none build a full Bayesian model to combine the judgements of multiple experts into the posterior distribution for a decision maker Historically, Bayesian concepts have identified issues with current modelling approaches to aggregation, but have led to models that are difficult to implement Recently Bayesian models have started to become more tractable, so it is timely to reflect on elicitation processes that enable the model to be applied That is our purpose in this Chapter In particular, the European Food Safety Authority have provided the most detailed and thorough prescription of the procedures and processes needed to conduct an expert judgement study We critically review this from a Bayesian perspective, asking how it might need modifying if Bayesian models are included to analyse and aggregate the expert judgements
6 citations
TL;DR: What it means for a target adjustment rule to be fair is explored, demonstrating how the goalposts for fairness were moved when the original DL was updated to the Professional method.
Abstract: Stern (2016) documents the evolution of the Duckworth–Lewis (DL) method from its inception (Duckworth & Lewis, 1998) through the Professional edition (Duckworth & Lewis, 2004) up to the contemporar...
2 citations