Simon Verhulst

Bio: Simon Verhulst is an academic researcher from University of Groningen. The author has contributed to research in topics: Population & Reproductive success. The author has an hindex of 55, co-authored 189 publications receiving 11894 citations. Previous affiliations of Simon Verhulst include Edward Grey Institute of Field Ornithology.

Ecological immunology: costly parasite defences and trade-offs in evolutionary ecology

Abstract: In the face of continuous threats from parasites, hosts have evolved an elaborate series of preventative and controlling measures - the immune system - in order to reduce the fitness costs of parasitism. However, these measures do have associated costs. Viewing an individual's immune response to parasites as being subject to optimization in the face of other demands offers potential insights into mechanisms of life history trade-offs, sexual selection, parasite-mediated selection and population dynamics. We discuss some recent results that have been obtained by practitioners of this approach in natural and semi-natural populations, and suggest some ways in which this field may progress in the near future.

The timing of birds' breeding seasons: a review of experiments that manipulated timing of breeding

Abstract: Reproductive success usually declines in the course of the season, which may be a direct effect of breeding time, an effect of quality (individuals with high phenotypic or environmental quality breeding early), or a combination of the two. Being able to distinguish between these possibilities is crucial when trying to understand individual variation in annual routines, for instance when to breed, moult and migrate. We review experiments with free-living birds performed to distinguish between the ‘timing’ and ‘quality’ hypothesis. ‘Clean’ manipulation of breeding time seems impossible, and we therefore discuss strong and weak points of different manipulation techniques. We find that the qualitative results were independent of manipulation technique (inducing replacement clutches versus cross-fostering early and late clutches). Given that the two techniques differ strongly in demands made on the birds, this suggests that potential experimental biases are limited. Overall, the evidence indicated that date and quality are both important, depending on fitness component and species, although evidence for the date hypothesis was found more frequently. We expected both effects to be prevalent, since only if date per se is important, does an incentive exist for high-quality birds to breed early. We discuss mechanisms mediating the seasonal decline in reproductive success, and distinguish between effects of absolute date and relative date, for instance timing relative to seasonal environmental fluctuations or conspecifics. The latter is important at least in some cases, suggesting that the optimal breeding time may be frequency dependent, but this has been little studied. A recurring pattern among cross-fostering studies was that delay experiments provided evidence for the quality hypothesis, while advance experiments provided evidence for the date hypothesis. This indicates that late pairs are constrained from producing a clutch earlier in the season, presumably by the fitness costs this would entail. This provides us with a paradox: evidence for the date hypothesis leads us to conclude that quality is important for the ability to breed early.

Age‐Dependent Traits: A New Statistical Model to Separate Within‐ and Between‐Individual Effects

Abstract: Evolutionary questions regarding aging address patterns of within-individual change in traits during a lifetime. However, most studies report associations between age and, for example, reproduction based on cross-sectional comparisons, which may be confounded with progressive changes in phenotypic population composition. Unbiased estimation of patterns of age-dependent reproduction (or other traits) requires disentanglement of within-individual change (improvement, senescence) and between-individual change (selective appearance and disappearance). We introduce a new statistical model that allows patterns of variance and covariance to differ between levels of aggregation. Our approach is simpler than alternative methods and can quantify the relative contributions of within- and between-individual changes in one framework. We illustrate our model using data on a long-lived bird species, the oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus). We show that for different reproductive traits (timing of breeding and egg size), either within-individual improvement or selective appearance can result in a positive association between age and reproductive traits at the population level. Potential applications of our methodology are manifold because within- and between-individual patterns are likely to differ in many biological situations.

Seasonal Decline in Reproductive Success of the Great Tit: Variation in Time or Quality?

Abstract: Seasonal variation in reproductive success is a common feature of most organisms. To understand the evolution of breeding seasons and reproductive strategies of individual animals, it is necessary to assess the extent to which seasonal variation in reproductive success is causally related to seasonal variation in the environment ('timing' hypothesis), to differences in quality between early and late breeders or their territories ('quality' hypothesis), or to a combination of both. We manipulated timing of breeding in the Great Tit Parus major, a small passerine, to test these hypotheses. A group of experimentally delayed birds was created by removing first clutches, inducing birds to lay a replacement clutch. Reproductive success of delayed pairs was compared with control pairs that bred early and with pairs that bred late. We conclude that seasonal declines in reproductive success at the nestling stage and survival of adult females were caused by differences in quality between early and late breeders. Recruitment of fledglings into the breeding population and the occurrence of second clutches were causally related to the timing of breeding. The seasonal decline in clutch size was caused by a combination of timing and quality effects. We attempted to assess the relative importance of timing and quality in the seasonal decline in reproductive success, expressed as lifetime production of recruits. We tentatively conclude that 87% of the seasonal decline in lifetime reproductive success could be attributed to a timing effect per se, whereas quality differences between early and late breeders accounted for the remaining 13%.

Human biochemical genetics

Abstract: So far in this course we have dealt entirely with the evolution of characters that are controlled by simple Mendelian inheritance at a single locus. There are notes on the course website about gametic disequilibrium and how allele frequencies change at two loci simultaneously, but we didn’t discuss them. In every example we’ve considered we’ve imagined that we could understand something about evolution by examining the evolution of a single gene. That’s the domain of classical population genetics. For the next few weeks we’re going to be exploring a field that’s actually older than classical population genetics, although the approach we’ll be taking to it involves the use of population genetic machinery. If you know a little about the history of evolutionary biology, you may know that after the rediscovery of Mendel’s work in 1900 there was a heated debate between the “biometricians” (e.g., Galton and Pearson) and the “Mendelians” (e.g., de Vries, Correns, Bateson, and Morgan). Biometricians asserted that the really important variation in evolution didn’t follow Mendelian rules. Height, weight, skin color, and similar traits seemed to

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

Abstract: Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

Simple means to improve the interpretability of regression coefficients

Abstract: Summary 1. Linear regression models are an important statistical tool in evolutionary and ecological studies. Unfortunately, these models often yield some uninterpretable estimates and hypothesis tests, especially when models contain interactions or polynomial terms. Furthermore, the standard errors for treatment groups, although often of interest for including in a publication, are not directly available in a standard linear model. 2. Centring and standardization of input variables are simple means to improve the interpretability of regression coefficients. Further, refitting the model with a slightly modified model structure allows extracting the appropriate standard errors for treatment groups directly from the model. 3. Centring will make main effects biologically interpretable even when involved in interactions and thus avoids the potential misinterpretation of main effects. This also applies to the estimation of linear effects in the presence of polynomials. Categorical input variables can also be centred and this sometimes assists interpretation. 4. Standardization (z-transformation) of input variables results in the estimation of standardized slopes or standardized partial regression coefficients. Standardized slopes are comparable in magnitude within models as well as between studies. They have some advantages over partial correlation coefficients and are often the more interesting standardized effect size. 5. The thoughtful removal of intercepts or main effects allows extracting treatment means or treatment slopes and their appropriate standard errors directly from a linear model. This provides a simple alternative to the more complicated calculation of standard errors from contrasts and main effects. 6. The simple methods presented here put the focus on parameter estimation (point estimates as well as confidence intervals) rather than on significance thresholds. They allow fitting complex, but meaningful models that can be concisely presented and interpreted. The presented methods can also be applied to generalised linear models (GLM) and linear mixed models.