Statistics for Spatial Data.

Much as Rachel Carson's \"Silent Spring\" was a call to action against the pesticides that were devastating bird populations, Charles S. Elton's classic \"The Ecology of Invasions by Animals and Plants\" sounded an early warning about an environmental catastrophe that has become all too familiar today-the invasion of nonnative species. From kudzu to zebra mussels to Asian long-horned beetles, nonnative species are colonizing new habitats around the world at an alarming rate thanks to accidental and intentional human intervention. One of the leading causes of extinctions of native animals and plants, invasive species also wreak severe economic havoc, causing $79 billion worth of damage in the United States alone. Elton explains the devastating effects that invasive species can have on local ecosystems in clear, concise language and with numerous examples. The first book on invasion biology, and still the most cited, Elton's masterpiece provides an accessible, engaging introduction to one of the most important environmental crises of our time. Charles S. Elton was one of the founders of ecology, who also established and led Oxford University's Bureau of Animal Population. His work has influenced generations of ecologists and zoologists, and his publications remain central to the literature in modern biology. \"History has caught up with Charles Elton's foresight, and \"The Ecology of Invasions\" can now be seen as one of the central scientific books of our century.\"-David Quammen, from the Foreword to \"Killer Algae: The True Tale of a Biological Invasion\

The Ecology of Invasions by Animals and Plants

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Economics of natural resources and the environment

Shifts in the timing of spring phenology are a central feature of global change research. Long-term observations of plant phenology have been used to track vegetation responses to climate variability but are often limited to particular species and locations and may not represent synoptic patterns. Satellite remote sensing is instead used for continental to global monitoring. Although numerous methods exist to extract phenological timing, in particular start-of-spring (SOS), from time series of reflectance data, a comprehensive intercomparison and interpretation of SOS methods has not been conducted. Here, we assess 10 SOS methods for North America between 1982 and 2006. The techniques include consistent inputs from the 8km Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer NDVIg dataset, independent data for snow cover, soil thaw, lake ice dynamics, spring streamflow timing, over 16000 individual measurements of ground-based phenology, and two temperature-driven models of spring phenology. Compared with an ensemble of the 10 SOS methods, we found that individual methods differed in average day-of-year estimates by ! 60 days and in standard deviation by ! 20 days. The ability of the satellite methods to retrieve SOS estimates was highest in northern latitudes and lowest in arid, tropical, and Mediterranean ecoregions. The ordinal rank of SOS methods varied geographically, as did the relationships between SOS estimates and the cryospheric/hydrologic metrics. Compared with ground observations, SOS estimates were more related to the first leaf and first flowers expanding phenological stages. We found no evidence for time trends in spring arrival from ground- or model-based data; using an ensemble estimate from two methods that were more closely related to ground observations than other methods, SOS

Intercomparison, interpretation, and assessment of spring phenology in North America estimated from remote sensing for 1982-2006 M I C H A E L A. W H I T E*, K I R S T E N M. DE BEURS w , K A M E L D I D A Nz, D AV I D W. I N O U Y E § ,

Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems

In the last decades, due to climate changes, soil deterioration, and Land Use/Land Cover Changes (LULCCs), land degradation risk has become one of the most important ecological issues at the global level. Land degradation involves two interlocking systems: the natural ecosystem and the socio-economic system. The complexity of land degradation processes should be addressed using a multidisciplinary approach. Therefore, the aim of this work is to assess diachronically land degradation dynamics under changing land covers. This paper analyzes LULCCs and the parallel increase in the level of land sensitivity to degradation along the coastal belt of Sardinia (Italy), a typical Mediterranean region where human pressure affects the landscape characteristics through fires, intensive agricultural practices, land abandonment, urban sprawl, and tourism concentration. Results reveal that two factors mainly affect the level of land sensitivity to degradation in the study area: (i) land abandonment and (ii) unsustainable use of rural and peri-urban areas. Taken together, these factors represent the primary cause of the LULCCs observed in coastal Sardinia. By linking the structural features of the Mediterranean landscape with its functional land degradation dynamics over time, these results contribute to orienting policies for sustainable land management in Mediterranean coastal areas.

The impact of land use/land cover changes on land degradation dynamics: a Mediterranean case study.

Land sensitivity to desertification across Italy: Past, present, and future

The objective of this paper is to identify land-cover types where fire incidence is higher (preferred) or lower (avoided) than expected from a random null model. Fire selectivity may be characterized by the number of fires expected in a given land-cover class and by the mean surface area each fire will burn. These two components of fire pattern are usually independent of each other. For instance, fire number is usually connected with socioeconomic causes whereas fire size is largely controlled by fuel continuity. Therefore, on the basis of available fire history data for Sardinia (Italy) for the period 2000–2004 we analyzed fire selectivity of given land-cover classes keeping both variables separate from each other. The results obtained from analysis of 13,377 fires show that for most land-cover classes fire behaves selectively, with marked preference (or avoidance) in terms of both fire number and fire size. Fire number is higher than expected by chance alone in urban and agricultural areas. In contrast, in forests, grasslands, and shrublands, fire number is lower than expected. In grasslands and shrublands mean fire size is significantly larger than expected from a random null model whereas in urban areas, permanent crops, and heterogeneous agricultural areas there is significant resistance to fire spread. Finally, as concerns mean fire size, in our study area forests and arable land burn in proportion to their availability without any significant tendency toward fire preference or avoidance. The results obtained in this study contribute to fire risk assessment on the landscape scale, indicating that risk of wildfire is closely related to land cover.

Sofia Bajocco

Papers

The impact of land use/land cover changes on land degradation dynamics: a Mediterranean case study.

Land sensitivity to desertification across Italy: Past, present, and future

Evidence of selective burning in Sardinia (Italy): which land-cover classes do wildfires prefer?

To grow or to sprawl? Land Cover Relationships in a Mediterranean City Region and implications for land use management

Linking trajectories of land change, land degradation processes and ecosystem services