Stefan Silfverskiöld

Abstract: Three technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and four reports on literature studies (sometimes called scanning reports) from the Swedish Defence Research Institute (FOI) have bee

Abstract: Ten technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish National Defence College (Note that there probably ...

Abstract: The purpose of this report is to describe the Swedish Defence University (SEDU) Military Utility Assessment Method for Future Technologies (MUAFT). The report describes the actions taken in each st ...

Abstract: The Military Utility Assessment of Future Technologies (MUAFT) method was developed as a cost-efficient alternative to methods such as NATO's Disruptive Technology Assessment Games, to be used as a part of the Swedish Armed Forces' long-term capability development process. The question addressed in this study is whether MUAFT can be considered to have validity in its context and thus if it has potential to be useful to other small to medium size states. The analysis was based on an operationalization of Clark's framework for science and technology intelligence analysis, combined with a military capability centric view of military utility. MUAFT reports from 2012 to 2018 were reviewed in terms of how they satisfy five key criteria. The study shows that MUAFT provides utility, if used by a suitably composed group of experts, who are aware of the method's limitations. The limitations mainly originate from a lack of explicit support for assessing the impact of forces for change, other than technological forces, on military capability development. The expert group serves as the synthesizing bridge between technology forecasts and military utility assessments. Therefore, comprehensive expertise is needed in various military technology specialisations, in the sponsor's military capabilities and in subjects necessary to master in order to assess other influential societal forces for change.

Abstract: Product development, especially in aerospace, has become more and more interconnected with its operational environment. In a constant changing world, the operational environment will be subjected to changes during the life cycle of the product. The operational environment will be affected by not only technical and non-technical perturbations, but also economical, managerial and regulatory decisions, thus requiring a more global product development approach. One way to try tackling such complex and intertwined problem advocates studying the envisioned product or system in the context of system of systems (SoS) engineering. SoSs are all around us, probably in any field of engineering, ranging from integrated transport systems, public infrastructure systems to modern homes equipped with sensors and smart appliances; from cities filling with autonomous vehicle to defence systems.Since also aerospace systems are certainly affected, this work will present a holistic approach to aerospace product development that tries spanning from needs to technology assessment. The proposed approach will be presented and analysed and key enablers and future research directions will be highlighted from an interdisciplinary point of view. Consideration of the surrounding world will require to look beyond classical engineering disciplines.

Abstract: The Military Utility Assessment of Future Technologies (MUAFT) method was developed as a cost-efficient alternative to methods such as NATO's Disruptive Technology Assessment Games, to be used as a part of the Swedish Armed Forces' long-term capability development process. The question addressed in this study is whether MUAFT can be considered to have validity in its context and thus if it has potential to be useful to other small to medium size states. The analysis was based on an operationalization of Clark's framework for science and technology intelligence analysis, combined with a military capability centric view of military utility. MUAFT reports from 2012 to 2018 were reviewed in terms of how they satisfy five key criteria. The study shows that MUAFT provides utility, if used by a suitably composed group of experts, who are aware of the method's limitations. The limitations mainly originate from a lack of explicit support for assessing the impact of forces for change, other than technological forces, on military capability development. The expert group serves as the synthesizing bridge between technology forecasts and military utility assessments. Therefore, comprehensive expertise is needed in various military technology specialisations, in the sponsor's military capabilities and in subjects necessary to master in order to assess other influential societal forces for change.