Author
Stephen Gerry
Other affiliations: British Heart Foundation, Nuffield Orthopaedic Centre, Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital
Bio: Stephen Gerry is an academic researcher from University of Oxford. The author has contributed to research in topics: Medicine & Randomized controlled trial. The author has an hindex of 24, co-authored 98 publications receiving 2529 citations. Previous affiliations of Stephen Gerry include British Heart Foundation & Nuffield Orthopaedic Centre.
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TL;DR: There is an excess of models predicting incident CVD in the general population and the usefulness of most of the models remains unclear owing to methodological shortcomings, incomplete presentation, and lack of external validation and model impact studies.
Abstract: Objective To provide an overview of prediction models for risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the general population. Design Systematic review. Data sources Medline and Embase until June 2013. Eligibility criteria for study selection Studies describing the development or external validation of a multivariable model for predicting CVD risk in the general population. Results 9965 references were screened, of which 212 articles were included in the review, describing the development of 363 prediction models and 473 external validations. Most models were developed in Europe (n=167, 46%), predicted risk of fatal or non-fatal coronary heart disease (n=118, 33%) over a 10 year period (n=209, 58%). The most common predictors were smoking (n=325, 90%) and age (n=321, 88%), and most models were sex specific (n=250, 69%). Substantial heterogeneity in predictor and outcome definitions was observed between models, and important clinical and methodological information were often missing. The prediction horizon was not specified for 49 models (13%), and for 92 (25%) crucial information was missing to enable the model to be used for individual risk prediction. Only 132 developed models (36%) were externally validated and only 70 (19%) by independent investigators. Model performance was heterogeneous and measures such as discrimination and calibration were reported for only 65% and 58% of the external validations, respectively. Conclusions There is an excess of models predicting incident CVD in the general population. The usefulness of most of the models remains unclear owing to methodological shortcomings, incomplete presentation, and lack of external validation and model impact studies. Rather than developing yet another similar CVD risk prediction model, in this era of large datasets, future research should focus on externally validating and comparing head-to-head promising CVD risk models that already exist, on tailoring or even combining these models to local settings, and investigating whether these models can be extended by addition of new predictors.
568 citations
TL;DR: There was no significant between‐group difference in the rate of death from any cause at 10 years in the intention‐to‐treat analysis, and further studies are needed to determine whether multiple arterial grafts provide better outcomes than a single internal‐thoracic‐artery graft.
Abstract: Background Multiple arterial grafts may result in longer survival than single arterial grafts after coronary-artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery. We evaluated the use of bilateral intern...
314 citations
TL;DR: Among patients undergoing CABG, there was no significant difference between those receiving single internal-thoracic-artery grafts and those receiving bilateral internal-thangrafts with regard to mortality or the rates of cardiovascular events at 5 years of follow-up.
Abstract: BackgroundThe use of bilateral internal thoracic (mammary) arteries for coronary-artery bypass grafting (CABG) may improve long-term outcomes as compared with the use of a single internal-thoracic-artery plus vein grafts. MethodsWe randomly assigned patients scheduled for CABG to undergo single or bilateral internal-thoracic-artery grafting in 28 cardiac surgical centers in seven countries. The primary outcome was death from any cause at 10 years. The composite of death from any cause, myocardial infarction, or stroke was a secondary outcome. Interim analyses were prespecified at 5 years of follow-up. ResultsA total of 3102 patients were enrolled; 1554 were randomly assigned to undergo single internal-thoracic-artery grafting (the single-graft group) and 1548 to undergo bilateral internal-thoracic-artery grafting (the bilateral-graft group). At 5 years of follow-up, the rate of death was 8.7% in the bilateral-graft group and 8.4% in the single-graft group (hazard ratio, 1.04; 95% confidence interval [CI],...
307 citations
TL;DR: Early warning scores are widely used prediction models that are often mandated in daily clinical practice to identify early clinical deterioration in hospital patients, however, many early warning scores in clinical use were found to have methodological weaknesses.
Abstract: Objective To provide an overview and critical appraisal of early warning scores for adult hospital patients. Design Systematic review. Data sources Medline, CINAHL, PsycInfo, and Embase until June 2019. Eligibility criteria for study selection Studies describing the development or external validation of an early warning score for adult hospital inpatients. Results 13 171 references were screened and 95 articles were included in the review. 11 studies were development only, 23 were development and external validation, and 61 were external validation only. Most early warning scores were developed for use in the United States (n=13/34, 38%) and the United Kingdom (n=10/34, 29%). Death was the most frequent prediction outcome for development studies (n=10/23, 44%) and validation studies (n=66/84, 79%), with different time horizons (the most frequent was 24 hours). The most common predictors were respiratory rate (n=30/34, 88%), heart rate (n=28/34, 83%), oxygen saturation, temperature, and systolic blood pressure (all n=24/34, 71%). Age (n=13/34, 38%) and sex (n=3/34, 9%) were less frequently included. Key details of the analysis populations were often not reported in development studies (n=12/29, 41%) or validation studies (n=33/84, 39%). Small sample sizes and insufficient numbers of event patients were common in model development and external validation studies. Missing data were often discarded, with just one study using multiple imputation. Only nine of the early warning scores that were developed were presented in sufficient detail to allow individualised risk prediction. Internal validation was carried out in 19 studies, but recommended approaches such as bootstrapping or cross validation were rarely used (n=4/19, 22%). Model performance was frequently assessed using discrimination (development n=18/22, 82%; validation n=69/84, 82%), while calibration was seldom assessed (validation n=13/84, 15%). All included studies were rated at high risk of bias. Conclusions Early warning scores are widely used prediction models that are often mandated in daily clinical practice to identify early clinical deterioration in hospital patients. However, many early warning scores in clinical use were found to have methodological weaknesses. Early warning scores might not perform as well as expected and therefore they could have a detrimental effect on patient care. Future work should focus on following recommended approaches for developing and evaluating early warning scores, and investigating the impact and safety of using these scores in clinical practice. Systematic review registration PROSPERO CRD42017053324.
155 citations
TL;DR: The present Arterial Revascularization Trial substudy suggests that, with a skeletonization technique, the risk of sternal wound complication with bilateral internal thoracic artery grafting is similar to that after standard pedicled single internal thorACic artery harvesting, whereas skeletonized single internal Thornton artery harvesting did not add any further benefit.
144 citations
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TL;DR: Since 1980, the American College of Cardiology and American Heart Association have translated scientific evidence into clinical practice guidelines (guidelines) with recommendations to improve cardiovascular health.
Abstract: Since 1980, the American College of Cardiology (ACC) and American Heart Association (AHA) have translated scientific evidence into clinical practice guidelines (guidelines) with recommendations to improve cardiovascular health. In 2013, the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Advisory
4,604 citations
TL;DR: Authors/Task Force Members: Franz-Josef Neumann* (ESC Chairperson) (Germany), Miguel Sousa-Uva* (EACTS Chair person) (Portugal), Anders Ahlsson (Sweden), Fernando Alfonso (Spain), Adrian P. Banning (UK), Umberto Benedetto (UK).
4,342 citations
TL;DR: Neumann et al. as discussed by the authors proposed a task force to evaluate the EACTS Review Co-ordinator's work on gender equality in the context of women's reproductive health.
Abstract: Authors/Task Force Members: Franz-Josef Neumann* (ESC Chairperson) (Germany), Miguel Sousa-Uva* (EACTS Chairperson) (Portugal), Anders Ahlsson (Sweden), Fernando Alfonso (Spain), Adrian P. Banning (UK), Umberto Benedetto (UK), Robert A. Byrne (Germany), Jean-Philippe Collet (France), Volkmar Falk (Germany), Stuart J. Head (The Netherlands), Peter Jüni (Canada), Adnan Kastrati (Germany), Akos Koller (Hungary), Steen D. Kristensen (Denmark), Josef Niebauer (Austria), Dimitrios J. Richter (Greece), Petar M. Seferovi c (Serbia), Dirk Sibbing (Germany), Giulio G. Stefanini (Italy), Stephan Windecker (Switzerland), Rashmi Yadav (UK), Michael O. Zembala (Poland) Document Reviewers: William Wijns (ESC Review Co-ordinator) (Ireland), David Glineur (EACTS Review Co-ordinator) (Canada), Victor Aboyans (France), Stephan Achenbach (Germany), Stefan Agewall (Norway), Felicita Andreotti (Italy), Emanuele Barbato (Italy), Andreas Baumbach (UK), James Brophy (Canada), Héctor Bueno (Spain), Patrick A. Calvert (UK), Davide Capodanno (Italy), Piroze M. Davierwala
3,879 citations
Camden and Islington NHS Foundation Trust1, University College London2, King's College London3, University of Melbourne4, University of Exeter5, Brighton and Sussex Medical School6, University of Manchester7, Tel Aviv University8, Johns Hopkins University9, University of Michigan10, Kaiser Permanente11, University of Washington12, University of Edinburgh13, University of Montpellier14, Dalhousie University15, University of Southern California16, University of Oslo17, Innlandet Hospital Trust18
TL;DR: The Lancet Commission on Dementia Prevention, Intervention, and Care met to consolidate the huge strides that have been made and the emerging knowledge as to what the authors should do to prevent and manage dementia.
3,826 citations
TL;DR: The next generation of scientists and decision-makers will have a greater understanding of what constitutes a credible threat to public health and how to protect them from that threat.
3,748 citations