Stephen Lee

Bio: Stephen Lee is an academic researcher. The author has contributed to research in topics: Technology forecasting. The author has an hindex of 1, co-authored 2 publications receiving 4 citations.

Report of an Army Workshop on Convergence Forecasting: Mechanochemical Transduction

Abstract: : While the rapid pace of science and technology (S&T) in the modern world is enabling new capabilities for the Army, the globalization of information, research, and economies poses new challenges for the Department of Defense (DoD) to stay at the cutting edge of S&T research and avoid technological surprise. Previous approaches to forecasting S&T abilities of future allies and adversaries, and to predicting corresponding changes required for Army strategy have had limited success. A method for more accurately predicting the emergence of future scientific discoveries and applications would be instrumental for improving the effectiveness of DoD S&T programs. Recent studies have suggested a more successful forecasting approach: Identify potential confluences or convergences of individual science and engineering fields and then project how those convergences may lead to new capabilities. One recently emerged convergence is between the fields of chemistry and materials science. This revolutionary new field, called mechanochemical transduction, focuses on understanding and harnessing the fundamental processes through which mechanical stress can lead to a pre-designed chemical reaction. In January 2012, the Army Research Office (ARO) sponsored the Mechanochemical Transduction Convergence Workshop as a test case for identifying convergences of disciplines and their potential impact on science and the Army. A diverse group of academic and government scientists were invited to participate in the workshop. The academic researchers were renowned subject matter experts representing a wide range of disciplines, including chemical engineering, organic chemistry, physical organic chemistry, molecular biochemistry, materials engineering, multi-scale theory, metallurgy, and physics. The chief objective of workshop was to identify the most promising research opportunities and interdisciplinary convergences that could lead the field of mechanochemical transduction in new directions.

Discovering a Regularity: the Case of An 800-year Law of Advances in Small-Arms Technologies

Abstract: Considering a broad family of technologies where a measure of performance (MoP) is difficult or impossible to formulate, we seek an alternative measure that exhibits a regular pattern of evolution over time, similar to how a MoP may follow a Moore's law. In an empirical case study, we explore an approach to identifying such a composite measure called a Figure of Regularity (FoR). We use the proposed approach to identify a novel FoR for diverse classes of small arms - bows, crossbows, harquebuses, muskets, rifles, repeaters, and assault rifles - and show that this FoR agrees well with the empirical data. We identify a previously unreported regular trend in the FoR of an exceptionally long duration - from approximately 1200 CE to the present - and discuss how research managers can analyze long-term trends in conjunction with a portfolio of research directions.

"Keep the fight unfair": Military rhetoric in quantum technology

Abstract: Doing quantum ethics properly will require detailed socio-political analysis of the technologies and the organizations trying to build them. In this paper, I contribute to this task by analysing the public rhetoric of American military stakeholders in the quantum industry. I look at Air Force Research Laboratory involvement in the 2020 Quantum 2 Business conference, where they were the main sponsor. A critical thematic analysis shows a focus on enacting the violence of war, maintaining narratives that the Air Force provides a secure future for Americans, and marrying quantum technology with the aesthetics of war. I contextualize this with anti-imperialist theory, arguing that this rhetoric and the desire for quantum arms aligns with the reproduction of existing violent power structures. Insights about this example of military involvement in quantum spaces should help orient nascent critical quantum ethics interventions.

Social computing approaches and applications for defense and intelligence operations

Abstract: Social computing blends computational techniques such as statistics, machine learning, text mining, and graph theory, with psychological and organizational theories of process and structure, and social science theories of membership, engagement and communication. The application of social computing approaches for assessing and shaping the sociocultural landscape within an area of operations is of growing interest to the defense and intelligence community. These approaches can enable the understanding of how patterns of relations among actors, their environment, and resources influence behavior, and how interventions might change those patterns so altering that behavior. Recently the Army conducted a Workshop on Social Computing Research at the U.S. Army Research Laboratory (ARL). The purpose of the workshop was to understand the strengths and limits of current computational research applied to socially-created data while identifying critical research needs and opportunities of interest to the Army. We discuss several social computing strategies resulting from the workshop and propose a set of recommendations for integrating social computing in key ARL basic research science and technology objectives.

Challenges in Emerging Biotechnology

Abstract: For research and development work, unlike “pure” scientific research, there is a definite final goal: the solution to a specific problem, or a new product developed to fill a particular market niche. As multiple and interactive forces have increasingly arisen to complicate the R&D process, sustained confidence in ultimate success has become essential. This essay examines the bases for such confidence in the field of biotechnology and suggests practical ways to validate their existence.