Showing papers by "Stephen S Lim published in 2014"

An Integrated Risk Function for Estimating the Global Burden of Disease Attributable to Ambient Fine Particulate Matter Exposure

Abstract: Background: Estimating the burden of disease attributable to long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in ambient air requires knowledge of both the shape and magnitude of the relative ...

Global Sodium Consumption and Death from Cardiovascular Causes

Abstract: BACKGROUND High sodium intake increases blood pressure, a risk factor for cardiovascular disease, but the effects of sodium intake on global cardiovascular mortality are uncertain. METHODS We collected data from surveys on sodium intake as determined by urinary excretion and diet in persons from 66 countries (accounting for 74.1% of adults throughout the world), and we used these data to quantify the global consumption of sodium according to age, sex, and country. The effects of sodium on blood pressure, according to age, race, and the presence or absence of hypertension, were calculated from data in a new meta-analysis of 107 randomized interventions, and the effects of blood pressure on cardiovascular mortality, according to age, were calculated from a meta-analysis of cohorts. Cause-specific mortality was derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Using comparative risk assessment, we estimated the cardiovascular effects of current sodium intake, as compared with a reference intake of 2.0 g of sodium per day, according to age, sex, and country. RESULTS In 2010, the estimated mean level of global sodium consumption was 3.95 g per day, and regional mean levels ranged from 2.18 to 5.51 g per day. Globally, 1.65 million annual deaths from cardiovascular causes (95% uncertainty interval [confidence interval], 1.10 million to 2.22 million) were attributed to sodium intake above the reference level; 61.9% of these deaths occurred in men and 38.1% occurred in women. These deaths accounted for nearly 1 of every 10 deaths from cardiovascular causes (9.5%). Four of every 5 deaths (84.3%) occurred in low- and middle-income countries, and 2 of every 5 deaths (40.4%) were premature (before 70 years of age). The rate of death from cardiovascular causes associated with sodium intake above the reference level was highest in the country of Georgia and lowest in Kenya. CONCLUSIONS In this modeling study, 1.65 million deaths from cardiovascular causes that occurred in 2010 were attributed to sodium consumption above a reference level of 2.0 g per day. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.)

Global, regional, and national consumption levels of dietary fats and oils in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis including 266 country-specific nutrition surveys

Abstract: Objectives To quantify global consumption of key dietary fats and oils by country, age, and sex in 1990 and 2010. Design Data were identified, obtained, and assessed among adults in 16 age- and sex-specific groups from dietary surveys worldwide on saturated, omega 6, seafood omega 3, plant omega 3, and trans fats, and dietary cholesterol. We included 266 surveys in adults (83% nationally representative) comprising 1 630 069 unique individuals, representing 113 of 187 countries and 82% of the global population. A multilevel hierarchical Bayesian model accounted for differences in national and regional levels of missing data, measurement incomparability, study representativeness, and sampling and modelling uncertainty. Setting and population Global adult population, by age, sex, country, and time. Results In 2010, global saturated fat consumption was 9.4%E (95%UI=9.2 to 9.5); country-specific intakes varied dramatically from 2.3 to 27.5%E; in 75 of 187 countries representing 61.8% of the world’s adult population, the mean intake was Conclusions These novel global data on dietary fats and oils identify dramatic diversity across nations and inform policies and priorities for improving global health.

The global burden of occupationally related low back pain: estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study

Abstract: Objectives The study was part of the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study and aimed to quantify the burden arising from low back pain (LBP) due to occupational exposure to ergonomic risk factors. Methods Exposure prevalence was based on occupation distribution; estimates of relative risk came from a meta-analysis of relevant published literature. The work-related burden was estimated as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Estimates were made for each of 21 world regions and 187 countries, separately for 1990 and 2010 using consistent methods. Results Worldwide, LBP arising from ergonomic exposures at work was estimated to cause 21.7 million DALYs in 2010. The overall population attributable fraction was 26%, varying considerably with age, sex and region. 62% of LBP DALYs were in males—the largest numbers were in persons aged 35–55 years. The highest relative risk (3.7) was in the agricultural sector. The largest number of DALYs occurred in East Asia and South Asia, but on a per capita basis the biggest burden was in Oceania. There was a 22% increase in overall LBP DALYs arising from occupational exposures between 1990 and 2010 due to population growth; rates dropped by 14% over the same period. Conclusions LBP arising from ergonomic exposures at work is an important cause of disability. There is a need for improved information on exposure distributions and relative risks, particularly in developing countries.

Control of hypertension with medication: a comparative analysis of national surveys in 20 countries

Abstract: Objective To examine hypertension management across countries and over time using consistent and comparable methods. Methods A systematic search identified nationally representative health examination surveys from 20 countries containing data from 1980 to 2011 on blood pressure measurements, the diagnosis and treatment of hypertension and its control with antihypertensive drugs. For each country, the prevalence of hypertension (i.e. systolic blood pressure ≥ 140 mmHg or antihypertensive use) and the proportion of hypertensive individuals whose condition was diagnosed, treated or controlled with medications (i.e. systolic pressure < 140 mmHg) were estimated. Findings The age-standardized prevalence of hypertension varied between countries: for individuals aged 35 to 49 years, it ranged from around 12% in Bangladesh, Egypt and Thailand to around 30% in Armenia, Lesotho and Ukraine; for those aged 35 to 84 years, it ranged from 20% in Bangladesh to more than 40% in Germany, the Russian Federation and Turkey. The age-standardized percentage of hypertensive individuals whose condition was diagnosed, treated or controlled was highest in the United States of America: for those aged 35 to 49 years, it was 84%, 77% and 56%, respectively. Percentages were especially low in Albania, Armenia, the Islamic Republic of Iran and Turkey. Although recent trends in prevalence differed in England, Japan and the United States, treatment coverage and hypertension control improved over time, particularly in England. Conclusion Globally the proportion of hypertensive individuals whose condition is treated or controlled with medication remains low. Greater efforts are needed to improve hypertension control, which would reduce the burden of noncommunicable diseases.

Effective Coverage: A Metric for Monitoring Universal Health Coverage

Abstract: A major challenge in monitoring universal health coverage (UHC) is identifying an indicator that can adequately capture the multiple components underlying the UHC initiative. Effective coverage, which unites individual and intervention characteristics into a single metric, offers a direct and flexible means to measure health system performance at different levels. We view effective coverage as a relevant and actionable metric for tracking progress towards achieving UHC. In this paper, we review the concept of effective coverage and delineate the three components of the metric — need, use, and quality — using several examples. Further, we explain how the metric can be used for monitoring interventions at both local and global levels. We also discuss the ways that current health information systems can support generating estimates of effective coverage. We conclude by recognizing some of the challenges associated with producing estimates of effective coverage. Despite these challenges, effective coverage is a powerful metric that can provide a more nuanced understanding of whether, and how well, a health system is delivering services to its populations.

The global burden attributable to low bone mineral density

Abstract: Introduction The Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 estimated the worldwide health burden of 291 diseases and injuries and 67 risk factors by calculating disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Osteoporosis was not considered as a disease, and bone mineral density (BMD) was analysed as a risk factor for fractures, which formed part of the health burden due to falls. Objectives To calculate (1) the global distribution of BMD, (2) its population attributable fraction (PAF) for fractures and subsequently for falls, and (3) the number of DALYs due to BMD. Methods A systematic review was performed seeking population-based studies in which BMD was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry at the femoral neck in people aged 50 years and over. Age- and sex-specific mean ± SD BMD values (g/cm2) were extracted from eligible studies. Comparative risk assessment methodology was used to calculate PAFs of BMD for fractures. The theoretical minimum risk exposure distribution was estimated as the age- and sex-specific 90th centile from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III). Relative risks of fractures were obtained from a previous meta-analysis. Hospital data were used to calculate the fraction of the health burden of falls that was due to fractures. Results Global deaths and DALYs attributable to low BMD increased from 103 000 and 3 125 000 in 1990 to 188 000 and 5 216 000 in 2010, respectively. The percentage of low BMD in the total global burden almost doubled from 1990 (0.12%) to 2010 (0.21%). Around one-third of falls-related deaths were attributable to low BMD. Conclusions Low BMD is responsible for a growing global health burden, only partially representative of the real burden of osteoporosis.

Abstract MP51: Global, Regional, And National Intakes Of Sugar-sweetened Beverages, Milk, And Fruit Juice: A Systematic Analysis Including 193 Country-specific Nutrition Surveys Worldwide.

Abstract: Background: Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), fruit juice, and milk each significantly contribute to health and disease. To-date, assessment of their global distributions and health impacts have been limited by insufficient comparable and reliable data by country, age, and sex. Objective: To quantify global, regional, and national levels of SSB, fruit juice, and milk intake by age and sex in adults over age 20 in 2010. Methods: We identified, obtained, and assessed data on intakes of these beverages in adults, by age and sex, from 193 nationally representative diet surveys worldwide, representing 62% of the world’s population. We developed a multi-level hierarchical Bayesian model to account for differences in national and regional missingness, measurement incomparability, study representativeness, and sampling and modeling uncertainty. Results: In 2010, global average intakes were 0.58 (95%UI: 0.37, 0.89) 8 oz servings/day for SSBs, 0.16 (0.10, 0.26) for fruit juice, and 0.57 (0.39, 0.83) for milk. There was significant heterogeneity in consumption of each beverage by region and age (Figure). SSB intakes were highest in the Caribbean (1.9 servings/day; 1.2, 3.0) fruit juice intakes were highest in Australia and New Zealand (0.66; 0.35, 1.13), and milk intakes were highest in Central Latin America and parts of Europe (1.06; 0.68, 1.59). Consumption levels of all three beverages were lowest in East Asia and Oceania. Globally and within regions, SSB consumption was highest in younger adults; fruit juice consumption showed little relation with age; and milk intakes were highest in older adults. Conclusions: This quantitative assessment of current beverage intakes at global, regional, and national levels, as well as by age and sex, is imperative for informing public health and policy priorities for intervention strategies, as well as for quantifying the impacts of these beverages on health worldwide. ![][1] [1]: /embed/graphic-1.gif