In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

Open Innovation: The New Imperative for Creating and Profiting from Technology

A literature and practice review to develop sustainable business model archetypes

This chapter discusses leading problems linked to energy that the world is now confronting and to propose some ideas concerning possible solutions. Oil deserves special attention among all energy sources. Since the beginning of 1981, it has merely been continuing and enhancing the downward movement in consumption and prices caused by excessive rises, especially for light crudes such as those from Africa, and the slowing down of worldwide economic growth. Densely-populated oil-producing countries need to produce to live, to pay for their food and their equipment. If the economic growth of the industrialized countries were to be 4%, even if investment in the rational use of energy were pushed to the limit and the development of nonpetroleum energy sources were also pursued actively, it would be extremely difficult to prevent a sharp rise in prices. It is evident that it is absolutely necessary to pursue actively the development of coal, natural gas, and nuclear power if a physical shortage of energy is not to block economic growth.

World energy outlook

The transition within business from a linear to a circular economy brings with it a range of practical challenges for companies. The following question is addressed: What are the product design and business model strategies for companies that want to move to a circular economy model? This paper develops a framework of strategies to guide designers and business strategists in the move from a linear to a circular economy. Building on Stahel, the terminology of slowing, closing, and narrowing resource loops is introduced. A list of product design strategies, business model strategies, and examples for key decision-makers in businesses is introduced, to facilitate the move to a circular economy. This framework also opens up a future research agenda for the circular economy.

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Product design and business model strategies for a circular economy

Households are expected to play a pivotal role in reducing the UKs carbon emissions, and the Government is targeting specific household actions as part of its plan to meet the legally binding targets set out in the Climate Change Act 2008. However, by focusing on discrete actions, the Government fails to take account the Rebound Effect  a phenomenon whereby carbon reductions estimated by simple engineering calculations are frequently not realised in practice. For example, installation of loft insulation will most certainly increase the thermal efficiency of homes. But this will free up money that otherwise would be spent by householders on energy bills: this money may then be spent on heating houses to higher temperatures, buying extra furniture, or, say, flying on vacations. Alternatively it may be put into household savings. All of these options give rise to carbon emissions, thus the total carbon saved may be less than predicted. Indeed, in some instances, emissions may even increase  this being known as Backfire. In this paper we estimate the extent of the Rebound Effect under a range of assumptions concerning consumer purchasing decisions, with varying prices, incomes, and savings levels. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of our findings and provides guidance on the conditions under which Rebound and Backfire can be minimised.

/pdf/missing-carbon-reductions-exploring-rebound-and-backfire-3v1qtffnxb.pdf

Missing carbon reductions?: exploring rebound and backfire effects in uk households

Missing carbon reductions? Exploring rebound and backfire effects in UK households

Turning lights into flights: Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for UK households

http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/49588/1/SorrellEE.pdf

Who rebounds most? Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for different UK socioeconomic groups

Introduction S.Sorrell and H.Herring PART I: MICRO REBOUND EFFECTS The Evidence for Direct Rebound Effects S.Sorrell Fuel Efficiency and Automobile Travel in Germany: An Econometric Analysis of the Rebound Effect M.Frondel , J.Peters and C.Vance PART II: MACRO REBOUND EFFECTS Modelling the Economy-Wide Rebound Effect G.Allen , M.Gilmartin , P.G.McGregor , J.K.Swales and K.Turner Specifying Technology for Analyzing Rebound H.Saunders Energy Efficiency and Economic Growth: The 'Rebound Effect' as a Driver R.U.Ayres and B.Warr Exploring Jevons' Paradox S.Sorrell PART III: REBOUND EFFECTS AND SUSTAINABLE CONSUMPTION Time-Use Rebound Effects: An Activity-Based View of Consumption M.Jalas Rebound and Rational Public Policy Making R.Levett Avoiding Rebound through a Steady-State Economy J.S.Norgard Sufficiency and the Rebound Effect H.Herring Conclusion S.Sorrell & H.Herring

Steve Sorrell

Papers

Missing carbon reductions?: exploring rebound and backfire effects in uk households

Missing carbon reductions? Exploring rebound and backfire effects in UK households

Turning lights into flights: Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for UK households

Who rebounds most? Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for different UK socioeconomic groups

Energy efficiency and sustainable consumption : the rebound effect