In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

Open Innovation: The New Imperative for Creating and Profiting from Technology

A literature and practice review to develop sustainable business model archetypes

This chapter discusses leading problems linked to energy that the world is now confronting and to propose some ideas concerning possible solutions. Oil deserves special attention among all energy sources. Since the beginning of 1981, it has merely been continuing and enhancing the downward movement in consumption and prices caused by excessive rises, especially for light crudes such as those from Africa, and the slowing down of worldwide economic growth. Densely-populated oil-producing countries need to produce to live, to pay for their food and their equipment. If the economic growth of the industrialized countries were to be 4%, even if investment in the rational use of energy were pushed to the limit and the development of nonpetroleum energy sources were also pursued actively, it would be extremely difficult to prevent a sharp rise in prices. It is evident that it is absolutely necessary to pursue actively the development of coal, natural gas, and nuclear power if a physical shortage of energy is not to block economic growth.

World energy outlook

The transition within business from a linear to a circular economy brings with it a range of practical challenges for companies. The following question is addressed: What are the product design and business model strategies for companies that want to move to a circular economy model? This paper develops a framework of strategies to guide designers and business strategists in the move from a linear to a circular economy. Building on Stahel, the terminology of slowing, closing, and narrowing resource loops is introduced. A list of product design strategies, business model strategies, and examples for key decision-makers in businesses is introduced, to facilitate the move to a circular economy. This framework also opens up a future research agenda for the circular economy.

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Product design and business model strategies for a circular economy

The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme ('EU ETS') began on 1 January 2005 The implementation of the EU ETS has raised interest in market-based approaches to achieving environmental and related public policy goals in the EU, particularly those related to promotion of renewable energy and energy efficiency Indeed, national and regional markets in tradable green certificates ('TGCs') and (to a lesser extent) tradable white certificates ('TWCs') already exist Green certificate schemes are established or proposed in a number of Member States (eg, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden and the UK) and form part of a growing portfolio of measures to achieve the renewable targets outlined in Directive 2001/77/EC White certificate schemes are considerably less widespread, although schemes have been established in Italy and the UK and further activity may be stimulated by the Commission proposal on energy services
(COM(2003)739) Both the renewables Directive and the energy services proposal envisage the possible evolution and harmonisation of these instruments into EU-wide certificate schemes This study has two major objectives:
-1 Analyse interactions among EU ETS and green/white certificate markets The first major objective is to describe the interactions between green and white certificate programmes and the EU ETS
-2 Assess implications of interactions for the policy objectives of the EU ETS The second major objective deals with the implications of green/white certificate programmes for the objectives of the EU ETS

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Interactions of the EU ETS with Green And White Certificate Schemes: European Commission Directorate-General Environment

The evolution of emissions trading in the EU: tensions between national trading schemes and the proposed EU directive

This paper analyses aggregate time-series data to estimate the direct rebound effect in UK road freight over the period 1970–2014. We investigate 25 different model specifications, conduct a comprehensive set of diagnostic tests to evaluate the robustness of these specifications and estimate the rebound effect using three different elasticities. Using the mean of the statistically significant estimates from these specifications, we estimate a direct rebound effect of 61% - which is larger than previous estimates in the literature and almost twice as large as the consensus estimate of direct rebound effects in road passenger transport. Using the mean of the estimates from our most robust models, we estimate a slightly lower direct rebound effect of 49%. Our estimates are fairly consistent between different model specifications and different metrics, although individual estimates range from 21% to 137%. We also find that an increasing proportion of UK road freight is being undertaken by foreign registered vehicles, and that increases in the vehicle weight limits have encouraged more freight activity. We highlight the significant limitations imposed by the use of aggregate time series data and recommend that further studies in this area employ data from vehicle use surveys.

Rebound effects in UK road freight transport

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Editorial: The Rebound Effect and the Jevons' Paradox: Beyond the Conventional Wisdom

• We analyse 15-years of data from the English National travel survey. • We identify associations between teleworking frequency and distance travelled, while controlling for a range of variables. • We find that the majority of teleworkers travel farther each week than non-teleworkers, despite taking fewer trips. • We find that the total weekly travel of all household members is greater in households where one member is teleworking. • We find that the majority of teleworkers travel farther for business each week than non-teleworkers. The global pandemic has revived debates about the contribution of teleworking to reducing travel, air pollution and carbon emissions. However, previous research suggests that the availability of teleworking may encourage people to move farther from their place of work, creating the risk that longer commutes will offset the benefits of fewer commutes. In addition, teleworking may encourage additional non-work travel by the teleworker, and/or influence the travel behaviour of other household members. These complex interactions make the overall impacts of teleworking difficult to predict. In this context, we use data from the English National Travel Survey to estimate the impact of teleworking on the travel patterns of English households over the period 2005–2019. We compare the number of trips and distance travelled by teleworkers each week with the number of trips and distance travelled by non-teleworkers, controlling for a range of socio-economic, demographic and regional variables. We estimate the impact of teleworking on travel by purpose (commuting, non-work and business) and by mode (car, public transport and active travel) and investigate the impact on the travel patterns of other household members. Our results provide little support for the claim that teleworking reduces travel. Indeed, after controlling for a range of variables, we find that the majority of English teleworkers travel farther each week than non-teleworkers. This results from a combination of longer commutes and additional non-work travel. There appears to be a ‘tipping point’, however. If people telework three or more times a week, their weekly private travel (commuting + non-work) is less than that of non-teleworkers. We also find that the total weekly travel of all household members is greater in households where one member is teleworking, suggesting the presence of intra-household effects that further erode the benefits of fewer commutes. We additionally find that teleworkers engage in more business travel than non-teleworkers, although the reasons for this association are unclear. We discuss the factors contributing to these results and indicate priorities for further research. 

Steve Sorrell

Papers

Interactions of the EU ETS with Green And White Certificate Schemes: European Commission Directorate-General Environment

The evolution of emissions trading in the EU: tensions between national trading schemes and the proposed EU directive

Rebound effects in UK road freight transport

Editorial: The Rebound Effect and the Jevons' Paradox: Beyond the Conventional Wisdom

Do teleworkers travel less? Evidence from the English National Travel Survey